SVP Paul Nolte Interviewed on WGN Radio 10.19.21

Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses this week’s earnings reports, the effects of rising rent costs and converting your IRA to a Roth.

Click here to listen to the interview.

7:28

CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox News 10.15.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the psychology and emotion involved in investing, and trusting the system. He also talks about Amazon and Netflix, and expectations for Q4.

Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Date: 10/15/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 2:00PM

CHARLES PAYNE: So we know historically October, the most volatile month for the market, but also the month that sees that September weakness morph into a launching pad for a year end rally. And it looks like that may be happening this week. I want to bring in the market bros Scott, Martin, Rob Luna and before we even talk about that, both of you guys are very passionate about getting people into the stock market. In fact, Rob, I was reading your website today and something struck me quote. My mission is to mentor anyone who is willing to build and put in the hard work to secure their own business, invest in their future, for their future. You know, I think that’s the biggest hurdle, right? People now you kind of rely on social media. You get these tips. We call them water cooler tips. So it’s easy to find stock ideas, but really, you got to put a little bit more elbow grease in there. Isn’t that true?

ROB LUNA: Yeah, I mean, that’s exactly it, Charles. And especially when you look at our community being a Cuban-American yourself, African-American, the numbers are horrible. Charles Less than 10 percent of Latinos are invested in the market. 13 percent of African-Americans in my academy minorities represent over 75 percent. I’m really proud of that. We need to start educating these people. There’s a lot of wealth that’s being built and created in this market. But people need to get in, but they need to spend the time to do it the right way. It’s not on chat boards, it’s not reading news clips. It’s really understanding how to analyze, manage risk and invest in good long term quality companies.

CHARLES PAYNE: And of course, Scott, we’ve had this record amount of money pour into this market. So these new investors are getting in there. And this is one of the biggest tests the last few weeks for them. What is the key thing? Maybe they should take away from it that they should understand?

SCOTT MARTIN: I like the term hard work Charles and Rob has been great at that mantra. His whole career and the hard work for me working with clients too is the emotional aspect. I mean, you talk about the new investors. Charles, Rob talks about some of the minorities that need to trust the system, which you know, it’s hard number one. But number two, think about your emotions of when you invest. You know, people too many times compare their selves themselves to other investors. They compare themselves to that, you know, half brother, half sister, that half cousin, whoever it is that has that great idea, that investment in oil or cannabis that went crazy. You’ve got to understand your own psychology when you’re going into investing to know what you expect out of it, what you can take both on the upside and downside and how you’re going to deal with it.

PAYNE: I’ve got to ask you guys about earnings season. Let’s go to next week because we talked a lot about this week Squid Games, the hottest thing in the world. Will that make Netflix a buy before the earnings? Scott, would you be in this stock?

MARTIN: We already own it, man, and I got chastised and raked over the coals in May when we took it out of our managed stock portfolios in favour of Amazon. So we took out Amazon, which was taboo to ever sell and bought Netflix. Let’s look at the chart. That was actually a pretty good move. You know what’s funny, too? I don’t like Squid Games. I know I’m getting a ton of hate mail about it. I don’t think it’s that good. But I think a lot of their other content is geared. Charles. Sub numbers should look pretty good this past quarter. And so I like Netflix here going forward, especially into Q4.

PAYNE: Rob, are you? Are you? Would you be a buyer or owner? And if not, would it be like right now, Rob, what’s a fresh idea since we spoke last?

LUNA: Yeah, I mean, I think Scott’s a better stock picker than he is media critic. I think that’s a great game, a great show. I’ve been binge watching it for the last week. You know, I think you’ll look the fangs reporting next week. All of these companies are good long term holds, not trading around them. What I wanted to bring, though I knew it was coming up against some heat with the market bros I wanted to bring a fresh idea. That idea today is simple. Tigr, tigr, it’s up. Fintech. Look, there’s some controversy surrounding this. It’s a Chinese based company. A lot of online brokerage fintech, right? Take a look at this, though a big move into the US stocks down 30 percent in the last five years.

PAYNE: Take a look. I’ve got an admission. I’m in it with my subscribers and we are getting shellacked, so I’m so happy someone else is getting in there. And by the way, another admission I want you, Scott. I watched half an episode of Squid Games. Let’s say people may love it. I’m going to give it another shot over the weekend. And I do like Netflix. Guys have a great weekend.

3:54

Kingsview Partners Welcomes Partner | Wealth Manager Nick Priddy

Former Edward Jones Advisor Opens Kingsview Partners Office in Huntingdon, TN

Opening their newest office in Huntingdon, Tennessee, Kingsview is excited to welcome Partner and Wealth Manager Nick Priddy, who brings more than 17 years of industry experience to the firm.

Driven by a passion for advising his clients in a transparent, understandable way, Nick is thankful to be aligned with an independent Registered Investment Advisory Firm, where he operates under a fiduciary standard. Along with the benefits garnered by Kingsview’s multi-custodian, fee-based platform, he also has the freedom to provide truly client-centric strategies. Mr. Priddy’s comprehensive suite of services includes holistic financial planning, professional portfolio management, streamlined performance reporting and collaboration with tax and legal professionals.

After graduating from the University of Tennessee at Martin with a B.S. in Engineering and a minor in Business Administration, Nick found his true calling in cultivating a consistent process for long-term financial success. He understands the importance of stability and dedication, and worked with Edward Jones for 17 years before joining Kingsview. Nick also holds an AAMS and prides himself on the application of Christian principles to his craft.

Away from the office, Nick’s personal interests stay true to the values and interests of Tennessee. When he’s not in the office curating his clients’ financial security, Nick can be found raising registered Angus cattle and competing in rodeos and roping events throughout the state.

“Kingsview is pleased to welcome Nick, with his extensive experience and “client-first” philosophy, as a Partner and Wealth Manager,” noted Chief Executive Officer Sean McGillivray. “Our industry has done a poor job of engaging clients and delivering on the promises they make. Nick’s strong desire to put the interest of clients first will continue to advance our determination to transform the industry.”

1:00

Portfolio Manager Insights | Weekly Investor Commentary – 10.13.21

Click here for the full commentary.

PORTFOLIO MANAGER INSIGHTS
WEEKLY INVESTOR COMMENTARY | 10.13.21
Investment Committee

It’s impossible to understand today’s economy and markets without a clear perspective on global supply chain disruptions. From computer chips to the availability of workers, supply bottlenecks are raising concerns around economic growth and inflation. One major contributor to these worries is the energy sector with oil prices rising above $80 per barrel, the highest since 2014. What implications will this have for the economy and long-term investors?

Even as investors focus more and more on renewable energy sources, the world is still primarily driven by fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global oil demand was 100 million barrels per day prior to the pandemic and could recover to 96.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2021. The sharp economic rebound has helped to boost demand after oil prices plummeted during the pandemic. At one point, the price of the front-month contract fell to negative territory for the first time in history due to a lack of oil storage capacity.


Oil prices are rising due to supply constraints

KEY TAKEAWAY:

1. Oil prices have been rising over the past 18 months due to surging demand and limited supply. This is consistent with broader supply chain bottlenecks across the global economy.

Supply has been slower to keep up. OPEC and Russia (known collectively as OPEC+) have raised production only modestly and U.S. producers haven’t filled the gap as they have cut costs and improve efficiency. Dwindling natural gas supplies and inventories are expected to spill over into oil markets. Places like the U.K. are dealing with gasoline shortages while China is suffering rolling blackouts. Altogether, these forces are pushing energy prices higher.

Energy prices affect investors in many ways. First, today’s oil and natural gas prices are symptomatic of supply chain issues facing almost all industries. Not only are shortages of raw materials and labor impacting production and manufacturing, but logistics are hamstrung with container ships stuck waiting to unload. While it’s normal for energy costs to rise over the course of a business cycle, as they did before 2008 and during the last cycle, today’s situation is somewhat unique.


U.S. oil production hasn’t kept up with demand

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

1. While U.S. energy companies were expected to serve as the marginal “swing” producers, their production levels have yet to fully recover.
2. Coupled with limited supply increases from OPEC+, rising demand has boosted energy prices to multi-year highs.

Thus, even with U.S. consumers in a strong financial position, supply constraints are impacting economic growth. While this should eventually be resolved, it’s hard to estimate how long it will take and will depend on each industry. Some economists, the Fed included, still believe that these factors are “transitory” and could be resolved in 2022.

Second, higher energy prices are negative for U.S. consumers and businesses since they boost the cost of products and services directly and indirectly. Gasoline, for instance, has risen from a nationwide average of around $1.75 a gallon to over $3.25 today. However, it’s also the case that energy prices, including gasoline, have been relatively low for much of the past 7 years.


The energy sector has benefited from higher prices

KEY TAKEAWAY:

1. The energy sector has benefited from higher prices with the S&P 500 Energy index gaining 50% year-to-date.
2. Many investors had avoided the sector over the past few years due to poor performance. This is further evidence that investors should stay diversified both within and across markets since predicting exact winners and losers is difficult, if not impossible.

Third, from an investment perspective, the energy sector has been a volatile component of diversified portfolios. The shale revolution which began in the early 2010’s, has faced many ups-and-downs as over-supply became an issue before the pandemic. This led to the underperformance of the sector for years, which most likely caused some investors to avoid energy-related assets.

However, for those who are properly diversified, the energy sector accounts for just under 3% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. The fact that the sector has gained 50% this year alone, and 81% over the past twelve months, emphasizes the importance of investing within and across markets. It’s difficult to know what may or may not outperform in any given year, especially once a sector falls out of favor, and thus it’s important to be broadly diversified.

Thus, rising oil prices are both a reflection of supply chain problems as well as a factor that will directly impact consumers and businesses. Although oil prices are above $80, there are reasons to believe that the economy can still grow steadily, especially if more supply can come online. Long-term investors ought to stay diversified and focused on the underlying issues rather than the day-to-day movements of energy prices.

Investors should maintain perspective on supply chain issues rather than day-to-day oil price movements. Staying diversified across sectors is still the best way to manage through the current environment and to achieve financial goals.

Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. (2021)

3:00

CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox News 10.8.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses gold’s recent performance, plus the rise of cryptocurrency and its potential volatility.

Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Date: 10/8/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 2:00PM

CHARLES PAYNE: So all the record books say that it was the month of October, twenty twenty one when the Crown was officially passed to bitcoin and crypto from gold and silver. Now, according to J.P. Morgan, there right now three main drivers for bitcoin’s remarkable October to remember. So I want to get the read from Scott Martin and Meltem Demirors and Scott. Let me go to you, my man, because apparently institutions now see bitcoin as a better inflation hedge than gold. You’ve championed gold on this show for a long time. Is it time to throw in the towel?

SCOTT MARTIN: I have Charles, and I’m holding back tears doing this, but I’m good at doing that, so I won’t cry. I promised myself I would cry. We sold the gold today. I can’t believe it, and that was based on several factors, not because of what some of these institutions are doing, because those are not the guys to follow. In my opinion, as an independent adviser and one that manages ETFs and such. But the reality is this Charles, because of some recent data and certainly the performance of our friend Jld and some of the other ETFs that are out there in the gold space, it just hasn’t been there. As far as the non correlation in some of the upside capture. So while I don’t think that answer is as is the bitcoins or the theorems or the Solana’s, the reality is gold is just not handling itself very well as that alternative asset space in our portfolios right now. So I just think gold is not the thing to hold right now. I don’t think some of the bitcoin stuff is right, either, if that’s what you’re looking to replace it with.

PAYNE: OK, so Milton, Meltem, in the meantime, institutional investors are rushing in like gangbusters venture capitalists. I read where Mark Andresen shopped. The funding has gone through the roof from hundreds of millions to billions. So at least are the credibility questions over right now. Do you feel like as someone who’s championed this space, you took a lot of slings and arrows from these famous international types that you can finally say, OK, don’t question that credibility anymore?

MELTEM DEMIRORIS: Yeah, look, Scott, I’ll take the W all day. I’m sorry, but I’ll take the W. I think we are definitely at the point one percent of global aum across all asset classes is now in crypto. Of that, 50 percent is bitcoin and 50 percent is everything else. Crypto is here. 20 percent of Americans own bitcoin. This is no longer a fringe asset class. This is a diverse asset category that has publicly listed equities, including my company CoinShares. We have ETFs with exposure to equity. We’ve ETPs with exposure to digital assets themselves. We have the coin, so we have venture funds, we have SPACs. It is a growing and really robust category and I’m really excited about the opportunity ahead. We see a lot of opportunity for growth. And as we like to say in the industry, Q4 is the start of the madness. We’re calling it up tober, by the way, Charles. So this is not October, it’s uOtober.

SCOTT MARTIN: Just be ready for the volatility.

DEMIRORS: Hey, that’s the price of opportunity- price of opportunities, the volatility,

MARTIN: But different from alternatives of yesteryear, in my opinion, but no problem.

PAYNE: All right, so, so real quick, then I’m going to come back to you, Scott, but I do want to squeeze in with Meltem. The NFT is worthy. They stand there also having a pretty strong month there up Tobar as well.

DEMIRORS: Yes. I mean, yeah, I’ll talk about NFT’s, so yeah. Look, I think, you know, people love buying luxury goods. LVMH with a $400 billion company and they produce artificial scarcity, right? People buy handbags, people buy expensive cars, watches and have to use our digital flex right. For people like me, I spend all of my time on my laptop. I don’t need Chanel bags. I need digital flex. And so I think NFT is in many ways are filling this interesting new niche as we enter the so-called metaverse as we live increasingly online. We need different ways to sort of flex online. Right now, NFTs are very much focused on art and sort of displaying our unique clothes. We’re also calling them IS or profile photo NFTs, but are also seeing games using NFTs, luxury brands using NFTs. And I think it’s still a really early space, but want again where there’s tremendous growth for multiple different types of opportunities, whether it’s new brands, legacy brands, lot of space.

PAYNE: Let me only go. Got 30 seconds. I’m going to give Scott the last word, Scott. She mentioned the metaverse. You know, flossing on the metaverse. It sounds like you and me are going to be stuck outside the metaverse fishing. I mean, you’re going to jump at any of that stuff. Maybe some of these equity is riot, MHRA, Coinbase. Anyways, you’re going to get exposure to this space.

MARTIN: Yeah, we have some clients that have some of the riot, some of the DLC blockchain, and I think those are those are good if that’s the exposure you want. I also agree with Meltem, though you need exposure to the coins through Coinbase. You can actually trade the exact coins. And one quick point on the NFT, you can’t bring it in in stores and steal them, Gucci and all those. At least they’re unpreventable that way.

PAYNE: We got to leave it there. I’m handing it over to Lauren Simonetti Lauren to see.

4:57

CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News Tonight 10.7.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses wage inflation, the choices companies are facing, and the push toward green energy.

Program: Fox Business Tonight
Date: 10/7/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 5:00PM

BRIAN BRENBERG: Inflation burning a hole in Americans wallets, more companies raising prices on consumers. You know, stuff like burritos, washing machines, chips, soda pop, all increasing in cost here now. Scott Martin of Kingsview Wealth Management, a big soda pop drinker, he’s also a Fox Business contributor. Scott, great to see you, my friend. Look, I want to go to this data. This has been the story all along. We’ve heard, Hey, don’t worry. The labor shortages aren’t going to get passed on to consumers. Don’t worry, the supply chain problem is not going to get passed on to consumers. Scott consumers are getting nailed.

SCOTT MARTIN: Yes, and don’t worry, the government knows best. They know what to give the American people so that they go back to work eventually, which they’re not doing, and I think that’s one of the big issues, Brian, is that a lot of the folks that are going back to work, God bless them, are requiring more pay because the government subsidize them so well over the course of them not being employed. That is one thing that’s showing up big. I think that’s one of the risks here is looking at the wage inflation numbers that we’re starting to see now that the job market is starting to at least act more normally so that companies have one or two choices, either they pay their workers more and have less profit or in the case of workers that come in and earn more wage, they have to raise prices. And so the effect is going to be a little bit detrimental to the economy, especially as we come out of this.

BRENBERG: Yeah, you get that spiraling effect. Look, I got a bigger paycheck. That’s great. I go to the store. I used to spend seventy dollars a week on grocery now. Now I’m spending one hundred and twenty dollars. I’m sitting there last night talking to my wife over dinner, and she’s explaining to me how this meal costs like 30 percent more than it did six months ago. Scott, the average family’s paying one hundred and seventy five dollars more a month in prices. Because of this, this economy cannot thrive on that kind of inflation.

MARTIN: I agree, and I can’t thrive either, because I can’t even get my wife to have dinner with me, so so kudos to you on that, let alone how much it cost no matter the cost. The funny thing to Brian is we’re seeing this inflation kind of pervasive in every area. I mean, you look at food prices, you look at cost of transport things, you look at gasoline, all these things that are out there now that are really a shock to this system. And what’s funny to me, though, the reason it feels so bad is because we did have it pretty darn good for the last eight years or even the last 10 coming out of the financial crisis. I mean, we’re in basically a deflation or lets say and non-inflationary environment. So when prices do start to go up as they are now because of the wages, because of the fact that we have a scarcity of materials, it feels a little bit worse than maybe it normally would have.

BRENBERG: We had we had basically no inflation, we had wages going up. We had abundant jobs. That was good. But Scott, take this all the way back. This is really, to me, a story of oil and energy. Dagen made the point earlier day one. Keystone Pipeline You look at every issue affecting the economy. You can trace it back to what’s happening with energy.

MARTIN: You sure can, and you can trace it back to government policy on green energy and the fact that, you know, AOC and the crew all the way up to Biden have totally made this huge push towards green energy, which is very expensive and not part of our complete fabric. So you’re talking about the reliance on less fossil fuels and now this push towards green energy, which frankly, is just costing the country too much. And you’re right, it’s spreading across everywhere, except my friend is, you know, very well and Kirk Cousins passing stats. I mean, we want real inflation. Let’s get his numbers up.

BRENBERG: Only place I want to see inflation right now is the point that the Vikings put on the board and they cannot get it done. But Scott, look, this is we talk about the debt ceiling. You talk about spending, Scott, you talk about inflation. We have got the wrong prescription. The Vikings got the wrong prescription for what’s going on. We’ve got the wrong prescription for this economy. You always have the right prescription. Scott Martin, thank you for being with

MARTIN: The Doctors in here, buddy.

3:54

CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 10.7.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses food inflation, employment and whether the job market may be normalizing.

Program: Your World with Cavuto
Date: 10/7/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 4:00PM

NEIL CAVUTO: Forget about not even born, I mean, you don’t he doesn’t even remember a bear market, that’s next guy. Scott Martin Fox Business Contributor But again, an uncanny read of these markets for a young whippersnapper, Scott. You know, they’re mentioning the inflation word again and they’re saying, you know, be prepared for it sticking around a while. Are you in that camp?

SCOTT MARTIN: In parts of that camp, Neil, I think the gasoline concerns are definitely there and going to stay there, the food and some of the materials, I’m not so sure now. It’s funny the things that Lydia was talking about, Neil. It’s kind of things that we should probably be eating less of anyway. So maybe the inflation is doing a favor for us. I mean, personal story. I may or may not have brought some Golden Oreos with me to the studio today. You never know. The point is, you go to the store now, man used to be able to buy those Golden Oreos in the pack, and they had about sixty in them, for about you know, five bucks or something. Now you’re down to about 40 for a higher price. We probably don’t need to be eating 60 of those things anyway in a setting. So for my sake, some of the food inflation might actually maybe force us to make some healthier choices. Oh my gosh.

CAVUTO: Well, I don’t don’t go nuts here, but I don’t relate to this because, you know, I haven’t noticed the same run-up in prices in arugula, but you could be right. Yeah. But you know, I’m wondering because when inflation takes hold, it has a devil of the time sort of easing back. And we saw that from the 70s experience. Not that I think that that is necessarily the case now. But what do you look for that would at least get you thinking maybe this is more of a problem than I thought?

MARTIN: I think the secret Neil lies in the job market. I think it basically pans itself out in wage inflation because our good buddy, Milton Friedman, who yes, I’ve read about didn’t actually get a chance to meet him, which was the old talk of saying, you know, inflation is basically a monetary phenomenon. It’s too much money chasing too few of goods. We definitely have to feel good. I mean that that’s evident everywhere around the country today. But the wage thing that too much money chasing those goods may or may not be really the case here. So I think until that pans out to where we have both sides of those things fighting it out, I think that’s why I still think Jay Powell has it right. I think a lot of this stuff is transitory. It’s probably lasting a little bit longer than a lot of folks predicted. But we’re going to start to see we’ve got a jobs number tomorrow. I’m going to start to see those wage numbers, I believe calmed down as the job market maybe normalizes here.

CAVUTO: All right. We’ll see what happens. Scott Martin, great catching up with you and great relying on the expertise these last few years here, even though you weren’t alive when we started. But it’s good. Good that you’re alive right now.

2:38

Portfolio Manager Insights | Weekly Investor Commentary – 10.6.21

Click here for the full commentary.

PORTFOLIO MANAGER INSIGHTS
WEEKLY INVESTOR COMMENTARY | 10.6.21
Investment Committee

As we begin the final quarter of 2021, the economy is shifting from a recovery phase to a sustained expansion. Investor sentiment has shifted alongside this, swinging from bullishness to bearishness. This is understandable because, while the underlying trends are positive, it’s no longer the case that the economy and markets have nowhere to go but up. Challenges such as the pace of growth, fears of stagflation, debt problems in China, Fed policy, the government debt ceiling and more are weighing on investors’ minds. How can investors balance risk and reward with a long-term perspective during the final months of the year?

The truth is that investing is never easy except in hindsight. In the moment, there are always concerns that worry investors, even when they have a sound financial plan and portfolio strategy. Just this year alone there have been topics as far ranging as the presidential transition to the delta variant and Afghanistan. Yet, the S&P 500 gained nearly 16% with dividends this year through the end of the third quarter. The markets repeatedly show that those who are able to stay disciplined and look past the daily headlines are often rewarded, regardless of how quickly market sentiment turns.


The economic expansion is still strong

KEY TAKEAWAY:

1. The economy is still growing rapidly 18 months after the unemployment rate peaked at 14.8%.
2. U.S. GDP has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, as have corporate profits, and many measures of activity are at multi-decade highs. Despite investor fears, the underlying growth trends are still positive.

Today, the big issues that weigh on markets can seem nearly insurmountable, as they often do. The nature of the short recession last year, which only lasted two months, and the swift recovery have been unlike any cycle in history. This has made it difficult to measure and interpret traditional economic data such as inflation and growth rates. Even when the data return to pre-pandemic levels, the year-over-year percentage changes can be extraordinarily large.

On top of measurement and interpretation issues, there have also been real structural challenges, most notably around global supply chains. Much of this is rooted in the on-going disruptions in manufacturing and shipping that have affected industries from semiconductors to construction materials. While it’s reasonable to expect that these issues will be resolved, trying to predict the exact timing is difficult if not impossible. The computer chip shortage is still a major problem while lumber prices have already fallen significantly.


Inflation remains high and will depend on supply constraints

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

1. Inflation remains elevated across a number of traditional measures. The PCE inflation rate favored by the Fed, for instance, is at its highest levels since the early 1990s.
2. The Fed itself has made it clear that their inflation targets have been reached, setting the stage for a reduction in asset purchases.

These problems not only affect the performance of companies, stocks and sectors, but they are also an input into monetary and fiscal policies. One of the Fed’s key mandates is to keep prices stable which will require reducing asset purchases and eventually hiking rates. At the same time, Congress and the White House are actively pursuing new spending measures, which will also impact tax policy. While these headlines naturally garner investor attention, seasoned investors have been through many such periods over the past two decades. In almost all cases, the best course of action was to stick to appropriately-tailored investment plans, ideally with the support of a trusted advisor.

Perhaps then the biggest shift in markets over the past several weeks is that interest rates have begun to rise after pausing for two quarters. This has put downward pressure on tech-related sectors, counter-balancing improvements in areas such as energy and financials which have benefited from these trends over the past year. Not only will interest rates likely climb further, but investors should continue to expect higher levels of volatility. Only at the end of the third quarter did the S&P 500 experience its first 5% pullback for the year. Such short-term pullbacks are normal for markets and investors should be comfortable with greater uncertainty in the months to come.


The Fed will likely begin tapering soon

KEY TAKEAWAY:

1. The Fed will likely begin tapering its asset purchases in the fourth quarter. The central bank has been broadcasting this possibility for much of the year and has made it clear that tapering will be a gradual process that will last well into 2022.
2. They have also communicated that rate hikes will require a different, more stringent set of criteria and will likely not begin until after their asset purchases end..

It’s important to emphasize that this is all occurring against a backdrop of a strong economy and robust corporate profits – factors that do not depend on how investors feel. Ultimately, long-term investors ought to position themselves for years and decades, not days, weeks or months. By most measures, we are still early in the business cycle despite the shared feeling that the pandemic has lasted a lifetime already. Achieving financial goals requires true dedication and discipline, regardless of what markets are concerned about in the short run.

For many, jobs are the key metric since the pandemic directly impacted individuals’ ability to work and earn a living. Over 75% of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been regained and the unemployment rate has fallen to only 5.2%. While some sectors are still struggling to recover, others are struggling to hire workers fast enough. There are officially more job openings than unemployed individuals – an imbalance that is positive but that speaks to the changing nature of worker skills, job locations and more.


Government spending and the debt ceiling are front and center

KEY TAKEAWAY:

1. Partisanship in Washington is on full display as a number of issues are being discussed. In the short run, the debt ceiling is the most pressing concern for financial markets which fear a repeat of 2011’s fiscal cliff scenario.
2. In the long run, new spending proposals will have an important impact on infrastructure, taxes and more.

Many different factors are often referred to under the term “inflation.” Traditionally, inflation is seen as a monetary phenomenon. This made the 2010’s perplexing to many investors since vast amounts of monetary stimulus failed to materialize in the form of pricing pressures. Today, the biggest inflationary factors are the swift economic rebound and the on-going supply chain disruptions. While impossible to predict accurately, these effects will likely improve over time.

For investors, this means that there will likely be upward pressure on interest rates over a long period of time. Still, investors should not overreact to these gradual rate rises, especially given the extraordinarily low level of rates today.


International markets still have diversification benefits

KEY TAKEAWAY:

1. Although emerging markets have stumbled this year due to the delta variant and challenges in China, staying internationally diversified is still important.
2. Many of the challenges around debt, shadow banking and regulation in China have been in focus for over a decade. And while these issues are coming to a head, the Chinese government is likely to be in a position to cushion any major fallout.

While these developments are important to watch, investors ought to maintain a long-term perspective on the impact of Washington policy on markets. Financial markets and portfolios have performed well across a variety of party leadership and tax regimes. Regardless of how one personally feels about new bills and proposals, it’s important to focus more on staying invested.

Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. (2021)

3:00

SVP Paul Nolte Interviewed on WGN Radio 10.5.21

Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses the dip in stock prices, whether economists are underestimating numbers, and the earning season.

Click here to listen to the interview.

7:33

SVP Paul Nolte Interviewed on Catherine Murray in Conversation 9.29.21

Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses the global economy, China’s economic slowdown, watching the yield curve, and the bond market.

Click here to listen to the interview.

23:37