Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the global supply chain and the current administration’s effect on the U.S. dollar. He also talks about recent social media events and the intent of language.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: The evil, of course, these days could be inflation, it could be overvalued stocks, any dodginess development that could derail the economy. On that, I want to bring in our market pro – from Mayflower Adviser Larry Glazer also have got Kingsview Wealth Management. Scott Martin with me as well. Gentlemen, let me start with you, Larry. I know you’ve been concerned. I was reading some of the work you’ve done, even going back to 2018. So you’ve been concerned about inflation, but is it so pervasive? Right. Do you sense that it’s going to be so pervasive and enduring right now that the Fed will indeed be forced to derail this stock market?
LARRY GLAZER: You know, Charles, it’s a really good point and potentially the biggest risk to the stock market right now isn’t the economy. It’s not the reopening, it’s not even Covid. It may be Washington itself. It may be a Fed misstep. It could be higher taxes. Any of those things could potentially derail this. But I think more importantly, let’s play a little game here, shall we? And we’ll see how many times Fed talking head officials this week use the word transitory to describe the inflation that we’re all experiencing on Main Street every day. Charles, the proof is on the grill for Memorial Day. Look, let’s see what the price of chicken wings look like, right? That is, if you can get chicken wings, let’s see what the price of hamburger looks like that is. Maybe it’s going to be so expensive. We’re just going to eat the helper. No one’s going to take road trips. If gas prices go up, you’re not going to rebuild deck or your fence if lumber prices go up. So all those things are risk potentially. And we learn early on as you do not fight the Fed, if the Fed says there’s no inflation, it’s going to be good for the reopening. It’s going to be good for inflation. But you’ve got to be in companies. They have enough margin expansion. They can absorb that, pass it through cyclicals, industrials, materials, stocks and certain technology names that benefit from all the good things on the technology side that are happening today in this acceleration of innovation.
PAYNE: Well, if there no chicken wings, I’m going to be out down there protesting myself, Scott, when it comes to transitory, if we play the game, I’ve got the over whatever the number is. What’s your assessment? Because, again, the Fed, though, there’s a united front, they’re staying firm. They’re saying there’s no way we’re going to deviate no matter what.
SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, I don’t know if they have a overunder yet, Charles, on that, because, as Larry pointed out, the Fed is just going to keep using that word over and over again until they’re right, because I actually agree with them. I mean, I think if the is globally re-open, as we hope they’re going to, you’re going to see that resource utilization. Easy for me to say. You’re going to see that sourcing of minerals and elements and things like that that are going into building things and making things again start to happen. Global supply chain should come back online and lessen the pressure that we’re seeing in price. So I think the one concern, though, Charles, is what the D.C. administration is doing to our good old greenback. That’s the US dollar if you’re playing at home, because this endless printing of money, the pork bills that are out there to buy votes and buy favor across America are the things that are killing the greenback, which is actually pushing up prices more than anything.
PAYNE: Yeah, DXY folks at home put that on your watch list if it goes on there. Eighty eight could be trouble for your shopping bill, although Multinational’s might like it. I want to get back to what you were saying to Larry. I understand this. And we all go shopping. We see what the prices are. But how do you explain more recently this sort of relative calm in the market? The 10 year bond yield keeps drifting. The VIX keeps going down. You know, of course, that’s the fear index. Other indicators in the market seem to have become sanguine.
GLAZER: That’s right, no, it is a really good point because we see this inflation out there, that the market isn’t sort of believing it. And it’s interesting because it would be easy for me to say to you, hey, the public isn’t buying what the Fed is selling. Actually, right now. The public is buying it. If the Fed tells them there’s no inflation, people are starting to absorb that. The market’s trying to absorb it. More importantly, China, the other big central bank, we have to keep our eyes laser focused on their jawboning, the price of commodities. They want to bring the price of commodities down for their
benefit. I still think you want to be in some of these producers of these materials, these raw materials, energy industrials, the companies that will benefit from this reopening. They’re still going to be an infrastructure plan. They’re going to benefit from that. But there’s no doubt, look, technology is getting a reprieve here because inflation fears went on hold yesterday. That’s a good thing for a lot of the really high quality tech names that we own in our portfolios. It’s good for the market as a whole. It does stabilize things. The lower VIX might be somewhat misleading. Charles, it may be sending us a false flag signal.
PAYNE: Right? I got you. Larry, it’s great seeing you, my friend. We’ll talk to you again soon, Scott. If you can stay right there because I want to bring in Bulltick Capital Markets, Kathryn Rooney Vera. And I want to switch course a little bit here. Florida Governor Ron Desantis just signed a new law imposing fines on social media companies that permanently bar political candidates. I know that’s your state, your Floridian, Kathryn, and that’s obviously these stocks. We watch a lot. Just your thoughts.
KATHRYN ROONEY VERA: Yeah, great, great thing, it’s fantastic, great state of Florida and wonderful governor, look what happened to Section 230, right? Big tech has had it both ways, have been both a publisher and a platform, a publisher. Your audience, remember, can censor butt and be sued. But a platform can’t censor but can’t be sued. And big tech has had it both ways for an inordinate amount of time. So imagine former President Trump that lives here in Florida, what his next move is going to be after this.
PAYNE: You know, I want to stay on social media and how this new woke era, coupled with really the appeasement of overseas markets and governments creating really serious turmoil. And in fact, I want to bring Scott Martin back on this. So John Cena fans are outraged. He had to he was forced to apologize in Mandarin, by the way, for calling Taiwan a country that says he is promoting the latest Fast and Furious installments. So, Scott, first, just let me get your thoughts on that. I’m a huge John Cena fan. I hated to see that.
SCOTT MARTIN: I did, too, and, you know, it’s always about intent, I think, with kind of this “WOKE” culture and some of the things that are said these days, Charles, that need to be apologized for or not. I mean, look, I don’t think
John Cena meant anything bad when he talked about Taiwan being the first country that could see Fast and Furious nine. I mean, and everybody got super upset. And then he had to apologize, like you mentioned, in Mandarin. I mean, I think with with the culture as such these days, you have to look at intent. It’s not just about what somebody says inadvertently. It’s their intent. And I don’t think John Cena meant anything bad about it. But let’s face it, let’s just say he didn’t apologize right away because he jumped on it pretty fast. Credit to him, he probably would have been cancelled. We probably had never heard from him again based on how things are going these days.
PAYNE: Well, you know, and also, let’s be honest, I mean, this is about being cancelled in China, which seems to have more sway over corporate America, woke corporate America than certainly conservatives in America. The movie did one hundred sixty million the first week and one hundred thirty five million in out of China. And also, let me add Mark Ruffalo to this. Right, because he also had to apologize. Now, this is really tough. I mean, saying Israel was committing genocide against Palestinians, Kathryn, all of this. You know, it’s clearly, you know, he was forced out the direction of Disney. They own the Avengers franchise. That’s where he’s making a lot of money. But it seems to me if you broaden this out, it’s another reason why these large corporations and their proxies, whether it’s actors or anybody else, should just simply stay out of political commentary. Your thoughts?
VERA: It’s beyond me why they think it’s to their benefit. They should stick with the bottom line rather than alienating, insulting their consumer base. Woke ideology Charles is popular with the elites, but it’s not popular with the common American. So I think that we need to look at what happened with the deplorable how that worked out for Hillary and really focus on the bottom line here, guys.
PAYNE: Well, you always focus on the bottom line, so let’s shift gears for a moment. I want your thoughts on this market. Its meandering, but I’m thinking and I’m you know, it’s going to take some time to know that we might have had an inflection point last week. I feel like the bias is kind of shifted back to the upside. And I think maybe for now the worst could be over. I know you’re not convinced. Where do you see this market?
VERA: Well, we have an inflation that’s both transitory and structural. Your previous guest, we’re talking about the transitory nature of it. It is, in fact. And by July, the base effects from last year’s horrific year is going to roll off. So that’s going to favor tech in the very near term. In twenty twenty two, though, Charles, I’m far more cautious. I think the combination of a doubling of the of long term capital gains, higher corporate taxes, higher marginal income taxes on on the rich are going to really favor and I think that combined with more structural inflation, are going to favor the less sexy sectors such as utilities, such as energy, such as telecom, high dividend names that I think these tax increases, especially on long term capital gains, Charles are going to be the great equalizer between what has historically been beneficial for tech, low capital gains tax brackets and and higher dividend sectors such as utilities and telecom and energy, which I think are going to be more defensive positions for going into twenty, twenty two.
PAYNE: All right, so folks, enjoy the run this year while you can, because if utilities are the number one sector, maybe the rest of your portfolio ain’t looking so good. Kathryn, Scott, always appreciate it. Thank you both very much.