Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the amount of options in the market, using pullbacks to fortify positions, and the upward sloping yield curve in financials.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: Meanwhile, there’s an icon of dichotomy here between plunging investor confidence in amount of cash that’s gushing into the stock market. Individual bearishness that’s plunging. And of course, down at twenty 22 percent bullishness, rather the fear gauge moving closer toward extreme fear. So how can we come to grips when we’re personally growing fearful, but you still want to stay in this market? Believe me, I know it’s not easy. So let’s bring in our market experts Allan Boomer, Scott Martin and Mike Lee. You know, one of the reasons I’ve been bullish beyond the fundamentals is all the cash on the sidelines. Global investors took sixty two billion out of money markets. They put fifty one billion into stocks, forty six billion of that into US equities. So Mike, is this a reason you think for people to remain bullish?
MICHAEL LEE: Absolutely, Charles, I think any debate should be brought. I think the amount of cash on the sidelines is staggering. You have four and a half trillion dollars in money markets. You have over 700 billion dollars of buybacks amounts. And just keep in mind, OK, when that Fear Greed Index is up in the 80s and 90s, that’s what you want to sell when it gets down here. This is where you want to buy, and now it’s easier for me to say it than to do it. But that that historically proves the way it is when everyone’s calling for a correction. That’s where you want to be a buyer.
PAYNE: You know, Alan, you were a VP at Goldman Sachs and then you started your own firm in 2013 wasn’t a really great time, right? Most people hated Wall Street back then. So what’s the secret for you when you get investors to remain calm invested, particularly when they become fearful or distrustful?
ALLAN BOMMER: I hate to say it, Charles, but you got to tell them to turn the TV off, sometimes really focus on. Focus on the long term, you know, why are you investing in the first place? Is it because you want to know every minute, maximize your wealth or is it to really maximize your wealth over time? What are the things that you’re looking to achieve? Like, do you want to retire one day or leave money for your kids? Like days like today, weeks like these last few weeks aren’t really going to matter in the long run. You’ve got to keep folks focused on the big picture, right?
PAYNE: Scott, you know the amount of options. I want to get back to this old triple quadruple witching thing, the amount of options in this market. It’s got a lot of people concerned right there saying it’s really starting to skew underlying share prices. Also, it’s making people less respectful of risk. What are your thoughts about that?
SCOTT MARTIN: It’s wild, Charles. It’s definitely kicking up volume. I think it’s an opportunity like the guys have already said. I mean, any kind of drawdowns that we see because of options expiration or people say, repurposing or recalibrating their portfolios. If you’re getting pullbacks in names that you like, say, like airlines or restaurants, anything tied to the consumer, you’ve got to use those pullbacks or there’s triple which are not to buy in and fortify your positions.
PAYNE: So then let’s talk about resolve, market resolve again, for the most part, has been with us since 2009 on full display march of last year. This year, the S&P 500 has been holding that 50 day moving average like a champ, not just holding bouncing off it like a trampoline. So, so, Mike, you know, you’ve expressed a tremendous amount of bullishness. What happens if the 50 day fails and we start to accelerate to the downside?
LEE: Yeah, look, I don’t I don’t see any sort of acceleration from that, and again, I would be I would be a buyer on an I’d start start selling fixed income or finding other assets in other places to put more money to work. There’s so much cash on the sidelines, combined with the fact that while the economy, while the rate of change may be slowing, we’re an expanding economy. This is a bull market these last four years, not months. Markets don’t sell off because of valuation. There needs to be a catalyst for there to be a meaningful correction. And I’d say the more selling we get, the less likely the Fed is to be active, which in my mind is the only threat to the market at this point.
PAYNE: I do believe the Fed is hostage to the stock market, I think they’ve created a monster they will not be able to control other than keeping it going. Hey, let’s switch gears. We’ve been talking about stocks, but don’t look now. But that 10 year yield is really starting to build some momentum to the upside is right on the cusp of a big resistance point. Now, Scott, I know you like the financials. You talked about them. Obviously, they should do well as these interest rates are going up. Is this one of the areas to be in if we start to really break out?
MARTIN: I think so. Charles and we own JP Morgan and Citi. We have for about a year now, we like the upward sloping yield curve, as you pointed out. Also, the fundamentals on those two stocks are very good. So if you’re looking to expand your portfolio, looking at financials, I think those are the two top names. But obviously you can’t probably go wrong too much with Wells Fargo, given some of the pressure it’s had recently. But financials going forward here are going to take advantage of that upward sloping yield curve as the banks benefit from net interest margin expansion.
PAYNE: And, of course, if Elizabeth Warren gets her way, the by Wells Fargo, you end up with two companies for the price of one. Hey, Allan, at one point, were these higher yields change the way you’re investing right now?
BOOMER: Great question. I mean, I also like the banks, I like the regional banks as well as kind of the megacap banks, you know, you talk about JPMorgan. They. Made a lot of really powerful portfolio of businesses inside of JPMorgan like Citizens Financial, but you know, rates are going higher. I don’t think they’re going meaningfully higher. Like I predict in the next year, you’ll probably see a 10 year around 175. Like, that’s not enough to really, you know, turn us away from anything, you know, rates. I think rates will go higher. It’ll be a grind higher.
PAYNE: That’s like predicting the Knicks. That’s the playoffs, so I’m with you on that. OK. Let’s move on to gold because I got to bring this up. We talked about inflows. Well, guess what? Thirty seven million dollars winning the gold. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s the most in five weeks. And getting it back to you for a long time, you’ve been telling us you got to be in gold. But is it time to throw in the towel in the sense that this is your best hedge against inflation?
MARTIN: No, not yet, Charles. I mean, we like gold and we have for many years because it’s not stock and it’s not fixed income. You mentioned the inflows on gold. It’s actually had a pretty rough week given those inflows. But the reality is this as I think interest rate starts backing up. I think as we see like maybe a little bit of a taper, actually an inflation that actually might help gold here. So we’re actually adding to our portfolios to build out that position a little bit higher.
PAYNE: Right, let’s talk about what you’re buying, Mike, because you got us pumped up, my man. We’re in a secular bull market. Nothing’s going to stop us. May hit a speed bump here and there. How do we take advantage of it? What’s new in your portfolio?
LEE: Hey, Charles, I’m on the other side of this. Interest rates, I don’t believe. I think interest rates are going to back up here. Maybe we get a little bit higher, but then they eventually rally like we’re in a low growth, low inflation world. So I just added some utilities on that trade just just as a low rate trade, as a kind of conservative anchor to my equity portfolio. And I also added a big position in REITS, I think the right sector, it’s done really well, but I think it’s going to be one of the last legs of this recovery. And I think the low lower for longer, low interest rates really help them lever up and rebuild themselves.
PAYNE: All right. You know, utilities, I mean, you’re a brave man. There’s one utility I like next there, and I tell everyone when Biden was elected by that stock, it did terrific under President Obama. All of these things are trying to do means cash in their pockets. But it’s a tough one, although defensive halves look pretty good. Over the last few weeks. All right. Real quick. I think I’ve gotten enough time, 30 seconds. And the last time you were on, you mentioned the FedEx. I don’t think we’ll get a chance to talk before they report. I think so. So stay the course there.
BOOMER: I love FedEx. You know, it’s linked to e-commerce, all the stuff that you ordered, it comes to your house. A lot of it comes from FedEx. UPS is another great name, but FedEx trades at a 24 percent discount on a valuation basis to two ups. So whether their earnings are good or not, and I do think they’ll be good, I think FedEx is a great position on.
PAYNE: All right, gentlemen, let’s leave it there. Alan, Scott and Mike, have a fantastic weekend.