Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses Fed support, inflation, and whether the market is toppy. He also talks about temporary weakness in pockets of stock and what that means for long-term investors.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: I want to bring it two market watchers with us, Uma Pattarkine. I’m close. I got an eighty five percent. The next one I’m on. And by the way, it took me like seven times to get Scott Martin right, too. So don’t feel bad. Let’s pick up on this conversation. It does feel like the market the stock market is entering this post COVID 19 world. And if that’s the case, how does that inform how we invest, how our portfolios humor should look?
UMA PATTARKINE: Great to be back, Charles, and yes, you know, as we talk to our institutional clients around the world, that’s what we’re really focused on today, right? Not what happened in the last two years, but where we see things going in the next five to 10 years. And so we’re really focused on some of these big thematics that we see really moving the way that demand patterns are coming through. And so one of those things that we’re focused on, for example, is e-commerce, right? We’ve all gotten used to expecting that shipping order in front of our doors in two hours, right? So that’s why Amazon has kind of trained us to do. And so that means that retailers are really trying to get their supply chains built out so they can meet those demands. And that means a ton of demand coming through for industrial real estate. So those are the types of thematics that we’re really looking to in the future.
SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, I agree. I think our time horizon, though, just given all the uncertainty out there, at least as far as how we’re managing money is a little shorter just because we can be a little more certain, maybe about the short term, I think. But I’ll tell you, I mean, look at look at Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony yesterday, Charles. I mean, they’ve had an extraordinary amount of support to this market. That’s been one reason I think amongst many why the market’s been able to hang in here so well. And now they’re just starting to step back a little bit from, say, all that liquidity purposes that they’ve provided the market. So just be a tapering. I mean, when it was pushed to talk for him to talk about raising rates next year, talking about inflation, he was still using the word transitory, in fact debating how the word transitory should almost be used in the dictionary. The reality is, the Fed still wants to be here. This the Fed wants to be ever present. They know the market needs them. And I don’t think the Fed’s going to raise rates for the foreseeable future as long as inflation, which is still going up, by the way, but at a decreasing rate. And that’s important to note as the Fed continues on their mandate.
PAYNE: So, you know, yesterday, of course, we covered the FOMC meeting. What was really interesting. I wanted the audience to take a look at this. The heatmap, the S&P heatmap. You can see a lot of red on that screen, right as the FOMC decision was being made. But then at the close, it was almost all green. So explain this to me. Stocks are going up. Bond yields are going down. You know, that doesn’t speak to an aggressive fed that doesn’t speak to a lot of rate hikes next year. So, so what’s happening here?
PATTARKINE: Exactly what you sent, Charles, right, so the crux of that message from the Fed was like Scott was mentioning, there’s still going to be here, accommodative policies here to stay. Right. And so what that means is that your kind of economy is on good footing, but we still have a lot of support. And those rates really aren’t looking to be increased in this near future. And we’re hearing that same type of commentary from central banks around the world, right? So we’re seeing those rate expectations get a little bit reset. And so what that means for investors really is two things, right? So first is that we need to find yield and income somewhere else, not fixed income. And then the second is something that we spoke about. Charles and Scott touched on it and that inflation is here, right? And so investors really need to be focusing on hedging against inflation and making sure that they’re finding some yield somewhere else. And we’re seeing real estate as a great place to do that.
PAYNE: Lots of signs. And you don’t have to be a real market expert, right? It even be a casual observer that maybe the market’s getting a little toppy. You know, some experts look at things like our relative strength that right there is flashing a signal, maybe an impending pullback. Of course, there’s a fear and greed index now at eighty eight. Obviously, some would say that’s too optimistic. Scott, do you buy this notion that the market, first of all, that it’s toppy and if it is stopping, you know, do you make changes in your portfolio? Do you say so what? Sometimes it’s got to go down.
SCOTT MARTIN: It does, and you take that as a long term investor to add to positions if you have the free cash. It’s toppy, Charles and broad based markets, but there’s areas, pockets of stocks, let’s say, that are falling back on earnings reports or other news that you have to pick up because they’re weak temporarily. And just adding to some of the indicators you mentioned. I mean, look at stochastic, look at Max D histogram. I mean, that said, if I look at VIX two, there’s not a lot of fear out there. And these are times that worry us a little bit if you’re trying to market time, because I believe that these are levels that will get some pullback in, and that’s when you got to come in with some of that free cash.
PAYNE: All right. Irma Peterkin and Scott Martin, thank you both very much.