Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the psychology and emotion involved in investing, and trusting the system. He also talks about Amazon and Netflix, and expectations for Q4.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: So we know historically October, the most volatile month for the market, but also the month that sees that September weakness morph into a launching pad for a year end rally. And it looks like that may be happening this week. I want to bring in the market bros Scott, Martin, Rob Luna and before we even talk about that, both of you guys are very passionate about getting people into the stock market. In fact, Rob, I was reading your website today and something struck me quote. My mission is to mentor anyone who is willing to build and put in the hard work to secure their own business, invest in their future, for their future. You know, I think that’s the biggest hurdle, right? People now you kind of rely on social media. You get these tips. We call them water cooler tips. So it’s easy to find stock ideas, but really, you got to put a little bit more elbow grease in there. Isn’t that true?
ROB LUNA: Yeah, I mean, that’s exactly it, Charles. And especially when you look at our community being a Cuban-American yourself, African-American, the numbers are horrible. Charles Less than 10 percent of Latinos are invested in the market. 13 percent of African-Americans in my academy minorities represent over 75 percent. I’m really proud of that. We need to start educating these people. There’s a lot of wealth that’s being built and created in this market. But people need to get in, but they need to spend the time to do it the right way. It’s not on chat boards, it’s not reading news clips. It’s really understanding how to analyze, manage risk and invest in good long term quality companies.
CHARLES PAYNE: And of course, Scott, we’ve had this record amount of money pour into this market. So these new investors are getting in there. And this is one of the biggest tests the last few weeks for them. What is the key thing? Maybe they should take away from it that they should understand?
SCOTT MARTIN: I like the term hard work Charles and Rob has been great at that mantra. His whole career and the hard work for me working with clients too is the emotional aspect. I mean, you talk about the new investors. Charles, Rob talks about some of the minorities that need to trust the system, which you know, it’s hard number one. But number two, think about your emotions of when you invest. You know, people too many times compare their selves themselves to other investors. They compare themselves to that, you know, half brother, half sister, that half cousin, whoever it is that has that great idea, that investment in oil or cannabis that went crazy. You’ve got to understand your own psychology when you’re going into investing to know what you expect out of it, what you can take both on the upside and downside and how you’re going to deal with it.
PAYNE: I’ve got to ask you guys about earnings season. Let’s go to next week because we talked a lot about this week Squid Games, the hottest thing in the world. Will that make Netflix a buy before the earnings? Scott, would you be in this stock?
MARTIN: We already own it, man, and I got chastised and raked over the coals in May when we took it out of our managed stock portfolios in favour of Amazon. So we took out Amazon, which was taboo to ever sell and bought Netflix. Let’s look at the chart. That was actually a pretty good move. You know what’s funny, too? I don’t like Squid Games. I know I’m getting a ton of hate mail about it. I don’t think it’s that good. But I think a lot of their other content is geared. Charles. Sub numbers should look pretty good this past quarter. And so I like Netflix here going forward, especially into Q4.
PAYNE: Rob, are you? Are you? Would you be a buyer or owner? And if not, would it be like right now, Rob, what’s a fresh idea since we spoke last?
LUNA: Yeah, I mean, I think Scott’s a better stock picker than he is media critic. I think that’s a great game, a great show. I’ve been binge watching it for the last week. You know, I think you’ll look the fangs reporting next week. All of these companies are good long term holds, not trading around them. What I wanted to bring, though I knew it was coming up against some heat with the market bros I wanted to bring a fresh idea. That idea today is simple. Tigr, tigr, it’s up. Fintech. Look, there’s some controversy surrounding this. It’s a Chinese based company. A lot of online brokerage fintech, right? Take a look at this, though a big move into the US stocks down 30 percent in the last five years.
PAYNE: Take a look. I’ve got an admission. I’m in it with my subscribers and we are getting shellacked, so I’m so happy someone else is getting in there. And by the way, another admission I want you, Scott. I watched half an episode of Squid Games. Let’s say people may love it. I’m going to give it another shot over the weekend. And I do like Netflix. Guys have a great weekend.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses gold’s recent performance, plus the rise of cryptocurrency and its potential volatility.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: So all the record books say that it was the month of October, twenty twenty one when the Crown was officially passed to bitcoin and crypto from gold and silver. Now, according to J.P. Morgan, there right now three main drivers for bitcoin’s remarkable October to remember. So I want to get the read from Scott Martin and Meltem Demirors and Scott. Let me go to you, my man, because apparently institutions now see bitcoin as a better inflation hedge than gold. You’ve championed gold on this show for a long time. Is it time to throw in the towel?
SCOTT MARTIN: I have Charles, and I’m holding back tears doing this, but I’m good at doing that, so I won’t cry. I promised myself I would cry. We sold the gold today. I can’t believe it, and that was based on several factors, not because of what some of these institutions are doing, because those are not the guys to follow. In my opinion, as an independent adviser and one that manages ETFs and such. But the reality is this Charles, because of some recent data and certainly the performance of our friend Jld and some of the other ETFs that are out there in the gold space, it just hasn’t been there. As far as the non correlation in some of the upside capture. So while I don’t think that answer is as is the bitcoins or the theorems or the Solana’s, the reality is gold is just not handling itself very well as that alternative asset space in our portfolios right now. So I just think gold is not the thing to hold right now. I don’t think some of the bitcoin stuff is right, either, if that’s what you’re looking to replace it with.
PAYNE: OK, so Milton, Meltem, in the meantime, institutional investors are rushing in like gangbusters venture capitalists. I read where Mark Andresen shopped. The funding has gone through the roof from hundreds of millions to billions. So at least are the credibility questions over right now. Do you feel like as someone who’s championed this space, you took a lot of slings and arrows from these famous international types that you can finally say, OK, don’t question that credibility anymore?
MELTEM DEMIRORIS: Yeah, look, Scott, I’ll take the W all day. I’m sorry, but I’ll take the W. I think we are definitely at the point one percent of global aum across all asset classes is now in crypto. Of that, 50 percent is bitcoin and 50 percent is everything else. Crypto is here. 20 percent of Americans own bitcoin. This is no longer a fringe asset class. This is a diverse asset category that has publicly listed equities, including my company CoinShares. We have ETFs with exposure to equity. We’ve ETPs with exposure to digital assets themselves. We have the coin, so we have venture funds, we have SPACs. It is a growing and really robust category and I’m really excited about the opportunity ahead. We see a lot of opportunity for growth. And as we like to say in the industry, Q4 is the start of the madness. We’re calling it up tober, by the way, Charles. So this is not October, it’s uOtober.
SCOTT MARTIN: Just be ready for the volatility.
DEMIRORS: Hey, that’s the price of opportunity- price of opportunities, the volatility,
MARTIN: But different from alternatives of yesteryear, in my opinion, but no problem.
PAYNE: All right, so, so real quick, then I’m going to come back to you, Scott, but I do want to squeeze in with Meltem. The NFT is worthy. They stand there also having a pretty strong month there up Tobar as well.
DEMIRORS: Yes. I mean, yeah, I’ll talk about NFT’s, so yeah. Look, I think, you know, people love buying luxury goods. LVMH with a $400 billion company and they produce artificial scarcity, right? People buy handbags, people buy expensive cars, watches and have to use our digital flex right. For people like me, I spend all of my time on my laptop. I don’t need Chanel bags. I need digital flex. And so I think NFT is in many ways are filling this interesting new niche as we enter the so-called metaverse as we live increasingly online. We need different ways to sort of flex online. Right now, NFTs are very much focused on art and sort of displaying our unique clothes. We’re also calling them IS or profile photo NFTs, but are also seeing games using NFTs, luxury brands using NFTs. And I think it’s still a really early space, but want again where there’s tremendous growth for multiple different types of opportunities, whether it’s new brands, legacy brands, lot of space.
PAYNE: Let me only go. Got 30 seconds. I’m going to give Scott the last word, Scott. She mentioned the metaverse. You know, flossing on the metaverse. It sounds like you and me are going to be stuck outside the metaverse fishing. I mean, you’re going to jump at any of that stuff. Maybe some of these equity is riot, MHRA, Coinbase. Anyways, you’re going to get exposure to this space.
MARTIN: Yeah, we have some clients that have some of the riot, some of the DLC blockchain, and I think those are those are good if that’s the exposure you want. I also agree with Meltem, though you need exposure to the coins through Coinbase. You can actually trade the exact coins. And one quick point on the NFT, you can’t bring it in in stores and steal them, Gucci and all those. At least they’re unpreventable that way.
PAYNE: We got to leave it there. I’m handing it over to Lauren Simonetti Lauren to see.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses wage inflation, the choices companies are facing, and the push toward green energy.
Program: Fox Business Tonight
Station: Fox Business News
BRIAN BRENBERG: Inflation burning a hole in Americans wallets, more companies raising prices on consumers. You know, stuff like burritos, washing machines, chips, soda pop, all increasing in cost here now. Scott Martin of Kingsview Wealth Management, a big soda pop drinker, he’s also a Fox Business contributor. Scott, great to see you, my friend. Look, I want to go to this data. This has been the story all along. We’ve heard, Hey, don’t worry. The labor shortages aren’t going to get passed on to consumers. Don’t worry, the supply chain problem is not going to get passed on to consumers. Scott consumers are getting nailed.
SCOTT MARTIN: Yes, and don’t worry, the government knows best. They know what to give the American people so that they go back to work eventually, which they’re not doing, and I think that’s one of the big issues, Brian, is that a lot of the folks that are going back to work, God bless them, are requiring more pay because the government subsidize them so well over the course of them not being employed. That is one thing that’s showing up big. I think that’s one of the risks here is looking at the wage inflation numbers that we’re starting to see now that the job market is starting to at least act more normally so that companies have one or two choices, either they pay their workers more and have less profit or in the case of workers that come in and earn more wage, they have to raise prices. And so the effect is going to be a little bit detrimental to the economy, especially as we come out of this.
BRENBERG: Yeah, you get that spiraling effect. Look, I got a bigger paycheck. That’s great. I go to the store. I used to spend seventy dollars a week on grocery now. Now I’m spending one hundred and twenty dollars. I’m sitting there last night talking to my wife over dinner, and she’s explaining to me how this meal costs like 30 percent more than it did six months ago. Scott, the average family’s paying one hundred and seventy five dollars more a month in prices. Because of this, this economy cannot thrive on that kind of inflation.
MARTIN: I agree, and I can’t thrive either, because I can’t even get my wife to have dinner with me, so so kudos to you on that, let alone how much it cost no matter the cost. The funny thing to Brian is we’re seeing this inflation kind of pervasive in every area. I mean, you look at food prices, you look at cost of transport things, you look at gasoline, all these things that are out there now that are really a shock to this system. And what’s funny to me, though, the reason it feels so bad is because we did have it pretty darn good for the last eight years or even the last 10 coming out of the financial crisis. I mean, we’re in basically a deflation or lets say and non-inflationary environment. So when prices do start to go up as they are now because of the wages, because of the fact that we have a scarcity of materials, it feels a little bit worse than maybe it normally would have.
BRENBERG: We had we had basically no inflation, we had wages going up. We had abundant jobs. That was good. But Scott, take this all the way back. This is really, to me, a story of oil and energy. Dagen made the point earlier day one. Keystone Pipeline You look at every issue affecting the economy. You can trace it back to what’s happening with energy.
MARTIN: You sure can, and you can trace it back to government policy on green energy and the fact that, you know, AOC and the crew all the way up to Biden have totally made this huge push towards green energy, which is very expensive and not part of our complete fabric. So you’re talking about the reliance on less fossil fuels and now this push towards green energy, which frankly, is just costing the country too much. And you’re right, it’s spreading across everywhere, except my friend is, you know, very well and Kirk Cousins passing stats. I mean, we want real inflation. Let’s get his numbers up.
BRENBERG: Only place I want to see inflation right now is the point that the Vikings put on the board and they cannot get it done. But Scott, look, this is we talk about the debt ceiling. You talk about spending, Scott, you talk about inflation. We have got the wrong prescription. The Vikings got the wrong prescription for what’s going on. We’ve got the wrong prescription for this economy. You always have the right prescription. Scott Martin, thank you for being with
MARTIN: The Doctors in here, buddy.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses food inflation, employment and whether the job market may be normalizing.
Program: Your World with Cavuto
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: Forget about not even born, I mean, you don’t he doesn’t even remember a bear market, that’s next guy. Scott Martin Fox Business Contributor But again, an uncanny read of these markets for a young whippersnapper, Scott. You know, they’re mentioning the inflation word again and they’re saying, you know, be prepared for it sticking around a while. Are you in that camp?
SCOTT MARTIN: In parts of that camp, Neil, I think the gasoline concerns are definitely there and going to stay there, the food and some of the materials, I’m not so sure now. It’s funny the things that Lydia was talking about, Neil. It’s kind of things that we should probably be eating less of anyway. So maybe the inflation is doing a favor for us. I mean, personal story. I may or may not have brought some Golden Oreos with me to the studio today. You never know. The point is, you go to the store now, man used to be able to buy those Golden Oreos in the pack, and they had about sixty in them, for about you know, five bucks or something. Now you’re down to about 40 for a higher price. We probably don’t need to be eating 60 of those things anyway in a setting. So for my sake, some of the food inflation might actually maybe force us to make some healthier choices. Oh my gosh.
CAVUTO: Well, I don’t don’t go nuts here, but I don’t relate to this because, you know, I haven’t noticed the same run-up in prices in arugula, but you could be right. Yeah. But you know, I’m wondering because when inflation takes hold, it has a devil of the time sort of easing back. And we saw that from the 70s experience. Not that I think that that is necessarily the case now. But what do you look for that would at least get you thinking maybe this is more of a problem than I thought?
MARTIN: I think the secret Neil lies in the job market. I think it basically pans itself out in wage inflation because our good buddy, Milton Friedman, who yes, I’ve read about didn’t actually get a chance to meet him, which was the old talk of saying, you know, inflation is basically a monetary phenomenon. It’s too much money chasing too few of goods. We definitely have to feel good. I mean that that’s evident everywhere around the country today. But the wage thing that too much money chasing those goods may or may not be really the case here. So I think until that pans out to where we have both sides of those things fighting it out, I think that’s why I still think Jay Powell has it right. I think a lot of this stuff is transitory. It’s probably lasting a little bit longer than a lot of folks predicted. But we’re going to start to see we’ve got a jobs number tomorrow. I’m going to start to see those wage numbers, I believe calmed down as the job market maybe normalizes here.
CAVUTO: All right. We’ll see what happens. Scott Martin, great catching up with you and great relying on the expertise these last few years here, even though you weren’t alive when we started. But it’s good. Good that you’re alive right now.
Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses the global economy, China’s economic slowdown, watching the yield curve, and the bond market.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses gas prices, hyperinflation and making sure the labor force comes back online.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: So should you be worried about this, as we were indicating here there already, gas lines forming and large swaths of Great Britain? It’s hard to get the gas out because it’s very difficult to get it shipped to stations right now because of the supply, you know, shortage that we’re dealing with. So those gas lines that have been becoming a predominant scene right now in Great Britain, could they come back here for those of a certain age? You remember the early 70s in the late 70s when that was quite common? Are we revisiting the past even though Scott Martin wasn’t even alive? I suspect he reads history books. So. Scott, what do you think? Are we looking at the same?
SCOTT MARTIN: I do I did a deep study, Neil. I was born in the gas prices crisis, so let’s say that that’s indicative enough. So I don’t believe so because the infrastructure and the transportation structures here in the US are much better, let’s just say, than what we’re seeing in Great Britain so far. So I think we’ll be OK. Aside from maybe a pipeline attack or something that remember just a recent note. So I believe that things are going to be relatively OK. But that doesn’t isolate us, Neil, from the fact that you mentioned earlier with Grady about how some of the targets on crude prices now have moved up to 90. Our target personally at Kingsview is about $100 a barrel within the next six to eight months because of demand coming back online and because of supply supply constraints. So there are realistic impacts to the fact that we are going to see higher order, which is also not only hurting the consumer, but think Neil, about the producers and some of the companies who factor in these oil prices. So much of their production, their transportation of goods and services that’s going to tick up the prices and costs for them as well.
CAVUTO: You know what’s weird about it, though, if you think about the Scott, normally supply and demand and more demand for existing supply is a good indication for an economy that things are beginning to fire up post-pandemic and all the Delta variant issues notwithstanding, we’re humming again. Or is there something more going on that we have to worry? There’s such a thing as humming and then all of a sudden, you know, things get get out of hand with that and inflation gets out of hand. And you have the Jerome Powell, who has long been saying all of this is transitory, acknowledging Guess it’s not. What do you think?
MARTIN: Yes. And then the music stops and I agree with you, there’s a certain inflation that’s good. And frankly, Neil, that we’ve seen over the course of many years back to my very deep studies of these matters where as long as inflation is not hyper, let’s say it is transitory that shows up in stock prices like that is OK. When inflation is unmanageable and just crazy, hyperinflation is, as a word, is used in economics. That’s not so great. What I do believe is different about this time around is that typically inflation is too much money chasing too few of goods. Again, definitions I’ve read about in the history books today, though, we have sort of a lot of money chasing way too few of goods, and that goes back to the things you talked about with Grady throughout the show today about some of these supply concerns. We have, yes. And the fact that we don’t have the labor to support the needs that we have to kind of facilitate the delivery of those goods and services. So we need to rectify that. And that’s one big concern that we have at Kingsview you now and how we’re managing money for our clients is that making sure that that labor force comes back online because now we have, according to latest JOLTS survey Neil, about 10 million jobs that are available and ready to be taken by everyday Americans that are not being filled. And so we need to get that production back online so that we can facilitate or at least alleviate some of those supply issues and some of the delivery issues that we’re seeing around the world.
CAVUTO: Now, all of that information, to your point, is real. Next time we’re together, I’ll tell you about my wife and I had our first mortgage with 13 and a half percent, but we don’t have time right now, but I want a deal. It’s a great story. You probably didn’t hear it. You know, under one hundred times before. Scott, great catching up with you, my young lass.