Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses recent earnings numbers, travel planning, and what we might expect to see through the end of the year. He also talks about what’s happening with job numbers, the Fed’s focus and why they’re keeping interest rates low.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox News Channel
CHARLES PAYNE: All right, I want to bring in Wells Fargo Advisors senior VP Mark Smith, along with Kingsview Wealth Management CIO Scott Martin. Mark, let me start with you. I know that you’re mostly conservative. I think you’ve been largely in value. How do you see the rest of this year playing out? Because that’s been a sort of a tug of war kind of thing, particularly with all the different inputs in this economy.
MARK SMITH: I think the rest of the year is going to do as well as the last six months, if you’re looking at value specifically, let’s see what happens. The sectors, right. Financials are doing 20 percent plus since January. You’ve got energy. Last time I was on with you, Charles, I recommended energy to thirty five percent since January as a sector. And then and then you’ve got communications up 15 percent. Real estate in the value space is up 25 percent since January. So are any of those sectors going to go down? Yeah, if we go back to the lockdown. But the last time I checked, when I went outside, everyone’s out enjoying the summer. They’re taking advantage of being out. So those are vaccinator are taking advantage. And I think that’s going to continue. You’ve got Merck that you’ve said they’ve got a new pill that might be released in October. That would be a great treatment for it as well. So that a lot of great news. And so I think the reopening place would be great. I think a lot of the value sector are going to do very well in that environment and continue. I don’t know so much for growth because, you know, we’ve had at all time highs for all these growth stocks. And if we go back to being back outside, I think growth takes a little bit of a hit because we’ve been hanging out in these tech stocks the last year and a half. Staying at home.
PAYNE: Yeah. And we see we see a little bit of that with Amazon today. Scott, you started the year conservative. You went to growth, I will say July. As of yesterday, growth was up five percent versus like, you know, less than one percent for value. It does go back and forth. Where are you right now? Because you did start off a lot more conservative. You got more more aggressive. You were right. Are you staying the course?
SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, we are. But realizing, Charles, there’s going to be a lot of push and pull here into the end of the year. I mean, a lot of the easy money I think has been made. Now, you’re right, a super spending impetus by the government, also by the Fed, as well as far as stimulus they’re providing. And still this Delta variant that’s out there that’s kind of screwing with psyche, let’s say, you know, does allow, I think, things to stay relatively stable, let’s say supportive from the Fed and the government standpoint. So that’s going to keep the market floor there. But the reality is this a lot of what we’ve seen happen in the market with this rebound in growth, the great numbers that we saw in earnings this week was already factored in. And so what’s this next impetus that’s going to push us over the edge either one way or the other way? And I think it’s probably going to be this back and forth where you’ve got it buying things that are down. We talk about this a lot, Charles. You know, stuff like UpWork today. We picked up for our clients this morning. It’s already rallied about five percent off the bottom. Amazon, as you mentioned, Squares down three percent today. Stocks you like over the long term, stocks that will benefit from either a down area or lockdown situation or a non lockdown situation. When those things pull back, you’ve got to buy them. Apple earnings Tuesday after Tuesday, this week. Great buying opportunity. It’s up since then. That’s where you got to look for as an investor.
PAYNE: I want to get the view from both guys. The S.E.C. this morning, they put a hold on all these IPOs coming out of China. We see where the KWEB, which is a Chinese Internet stocks, have been crushed. Our names, conversely, have done well. Is that a place, Mark, that you would be looking to buy weakness? Obviously, you know, I don’t know what’s going on with the President Xi over there and what they might do to reverse some of these actions. But if they do reverse them, you might think some of these names will pop.
SMITH: Listen, I’m telling my clients that there are going to be in China, they’ve got to be with the companies that have really changed the paradigm. You’ve got companies that are as big as Amazon and as big as Uber, the Chinese virgin is over there. I don’t think anyone’s going to start hailing cabs on the same street in Shanghai. I think so.
PAYNE: So you saying like a DiDi or the Alibaba and the…
SMITH: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, these
PAYNE: Things are not inspite but buy the weakness.
SMITH: Absolutely, the transformational companies, I don’t think we’re going to go back to picking up packages from the front door stores that get delivered. So I think these companies, even though they’re having a pullback, I’m telling my colleagues, my my clients are dollar cost averaging some of these names because they really aren’t going away no matter what Xi’s doing over there.
PAYNE: Hey, Scott, let me get your thoughts on buying the Russell the Russell two thousand and you know, it’s been a juggernaut, but more recently, let’s call it the last four or five weeks, it’s been weak. It’s the best performing equity index today. I think it’s oversold. I think it also benefits from a weaker dollar. Are you a buyer there now?
MARTIN: Yeah, Charles, definitely. It’s oversold versus its large cap brethren. But, you know, the Russell hasn’t performed very well versus the large cap stocks as the breadth has thinned out. And that’s been kind of disappointing because in times when the market had had thinned out in previous years that Russell had stepped up. So for us to get back into small cap here, which we have since sold, I’d like to see that firm up a bit, Charles, which it probably will into the end of the year, because I think there’s some buyers in there. But at least for now, it still seems like there’s a lot of weekends hanging out.
PAYNE: All right, Mark Scott, thank you both very much, great information and we’ll be we’ll be watching and trying to make some money from it.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox News Channel
DAVID ASMAN: But first, inflation and inflation, is it permanent or transitory? That is the question the Fed is debating as we speak right now. We’ll hear about their decisions coming up. But markets are on edge, waiting to hear whether the central bank will pull back on its money printing sprint. Our all star panel is here, Kingsview Asset Management CIO Scott Martin, Fox Business correspondent Susan Li, and Through the Cycle, president and founder John Lonski. A great panel. Thank you all for being here. So, Susan, what are the markets expecting? They seem not to not to be too certain about what’s going to come up.
SUSAN LI: Yeah, well, what does transitory mean? Because before you’ve heard the Federal Reserve say maybe two to three months and now is it for the rest of this year? We know that inflation has run hot now for the past three months. You have a five percent increase in prices, consumer prices, the fastest, two thousand eight. So I guess the discussion is when do they take away the punch? Bowl is a twenty, twenty two. And then do you get the first interest rate increase in twenty, twenty three? I think the markets are passing and looking for some sort of wording from Jay Powell later on today.
ASMAN: Scott, which way. You bet.
SCOTT MARTIN: Expecting not much, David, actually, I think the real news is going to come out in the Jackson Hole meeting in a few weeks here, but I’ll tell you what else is going on here, David, is you talk about this transitory notion of inflation. Susan’s right. The setup is exactly correct. It was a couple of months and now it’s several months. And as long as they keep using that word along the line, I guess it’s still transitory. And I’ll tell you, interest rate projections are hard to handicap right now because we’ve got softening economic growth coming down the pike here in Q4 and Q1 of next year, which probably puts off the rate hike at least another six months into two thousand twenty two.
ASMAN: Well, John, earnings, of course, are looking in the rearview mirror, but we have these spectacular earnings yesterday, almost 60 billion dollars between three companies, Microsoft, Apple and Google or Alphabet, as it’s now called. So you had these spectacular earnings from the high tech companies. You still have a lot of demand out there. There’s this pent up demand. People with a lot of cash, they want to spend it. But you have a labor shortage. You have you have inflation. You have certain pushbacks on supply, supply chain, mess ups and and strangulations going on. So. So what’s your bet on what the economy is going to be doing in the months to come?
JOHN LONSKI: I think the economy’s going to slow down. We have had a number of downward revisions for predictions of economic growth during the second half of this year. You know, we had, for instance, GDP now by the Atlanta Fed earlier. They thought that the second quarter and we’re going to get a report tomorrow on second quarter GDP, the second quarter GDP growing by something faster than 10 percent. Since then, that forecast has been lowered to seven point four percent. Basically, David, what is happening is that price inflation, higher prices are beginning to take their toll of household expenditures. The best example, housing. New home sales in June were a disaster, down nearly seven percent monthly, down 19 percent from a year ago, despite still very low interest rates. I think the Fed is quickly finding that it’s going to be between a rock and a hard place. If it hikes rates to try to cool inflation, it will hurt the economy. If it does nothing faster, price inflation will lead to pullbacks by consumer spending.
ASMAN: But, Susan, they’re going to have to rewrite their mandates, if that’s true, because they have two major mandates. One is for price stability. As we talked about, there isn’t much price stability right now. Inflation is going up. There are even signs that it could be double digit next year if if that’s conceivable that we could go back to the late 70s. And the second mandate is on unemployment. Well, we have nine point three million unfilled jobs. Yes. They might not be paying as much as the government is for unemployment benefits. But the point is we don’t have an unemployment problem right now. So is the government just getting in the way
LI: And finding the workers to fill those jobs? And they also say that there’s a Fed put out there being that there’s a third mandate, which is to protect the stock markets, because a lot of people on Wall Street says that if we see the stock market fall 10 percent, you bet the Fed will step in at some point, as we saw in the depths of March last year, which they should have done. But, yeah, there are concerns that right now maybe the economy is running too hot. There are a lot of jobs out there, not the right people to fill it. And maybe it is time to take away the punchbowl. Now, if you take away stimulus, it doesn’t mean you can’t be reinstated once you see some sort of slowdown or some sort of hiccups in the economy.
ASMAN: But but but right now and again, Scott, it has to be the last word. I’m sorry, John. We’ll get back to you. We’ll start with you the next round. But but the fact is, is that we have the government just getting in the way of this amazing emergence from from all of the lockdown’s, which was creating all this spectacular growth. I’m wondering if the government is causing more problems than they’re solving right now
MARTIN: For sure, David. And creating new problems every day. It’s the classic case of government knows best. Government knows how to do best with your money, not you, yourself, the business owner or the spender. And that’s really where I think we’re at this crossroads here, because the Fed has done what they needed to do. The government has gotten in the way and created more inflationary pressure. And they seem to keep doing that with some of these crazy spending packages that have yet to be passed through Congress.
ASMAN: A panel this good should not be missed in their second round, which is coming up later in the hour. Good to see you guys.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox News Channel
DAVID ASMAN: Well, meanwhile, Beijing’s crackdown on US listed stocks is fueling a record drop in those stocks. Let’s bring back Scott Martin. Susan Lee and John Lonski. Good to see you all. Susan, what is going on in China right now? I mean, President Xi is a communist, even though he’s allowed you know, he sits where he does because of the sort of free market pushes of his predecessors. Is he going back to the old a stricter communist model of dealing with the economy?
SUSAN LI: Well, if you ever go to China, you’ll see it’s actually a very capitalist society. People there just want to make money and make their lives better. But there’s a lot of debate in terms of what exactly is a long term goal of Beijing and Xi Jinping and the Communist Party. Because really, when you’re clamping down on big technology like they have been in the last few months, you’re really cutting off your nose to spite your own face. Right. So what is a long term goal? Is it just domination, control over data, over the economy, over the markets? Or do you want your home grown talent to make lives better for the billion people that live in the country? I think there’s a lot of debate about that. But I will say that Bitcoin has actually benefited from this clampdown. A lot of money has been taken out of these Chinese stocks and worse two day wipeout since, two thousand eight. That money has gone into other assets, speculative assets like Bitcoin, John.
ASMAN: So far, the Bush administration hasn’t really changed that much. The policy of the Trump administration, one of those rare things where it hasn’t undone the good stuff that his predecessor did. But do you think that will last or do you think we may have sort of relations with China that perhaps a lot of people would would would voice their opinions against?
JOHN LONSKI: Well, I think the Biden administration will continue to take a critical view of what is taking place in China with the intentions might be they will be very wary of attempts by Chinese companies to purchase U.S. companies. And Susan, I think put it quite well. The Chinese government appears to be shooting itself in the foot. I mean, they have a very creative, innovative, highly educated population that could do wonders at creating wealth for China. And yet they seem to be putting limits on the ability of the Chinese economy to grow. And this brings up an important point. You know, years ago, the 1950s, high ranking U.S. academics, Paul Samuelson made the argument that the Soviet Union would surpass the US economic never came close to happening now. And the more you try to stifle initiative in an economy, the less likely is the economy to reach its full potential.
ASMAN: Well, Scott, on the other hand, you see all those people there at one point, four billion of them, and companies like Coca-Cola and the others at Nike that have their their fingers all over the place are willing to forgive all of the problems that China has. They’re willing to kowtow to the Chinese Communist Party to to maintain their market share in China. But and this is a very important but that I want you to deal with. You have the issue of the pandemic. We will not forget where the pandemic came from. We will not forget the way they unleashed it by allowing the people from move to travel to Europe and to travel to us and infect the rest of the world and perhaps perhaps having invented it inside a lab. Won’t there be repercussions from that that will affect economically our relations with China?
SCOTT MARTIN: Well, there should be, David. I mean, I’m waiting for the administration every day to do something about what happened in the Wuhan lab a little over a year ago. And certainly if you look going forward and based on history, you can’t trust China, whether it’s economically, whether it’s medically. We don’t have a friend there, obviously. And if you look at back, you know, earlier this month, they had the hundred year celebration, I guess it was, of the CCP, which was highly their militaristic. It was highly affronted to the rest of the world as some of the comments that President Xi made versus the other rest of the world leaders and rest of the world countries about what the Chinese government was going to do to people. And so, look, going forward, if we think we’ve got a friend in China, we’re sorely mistaken and it’s already costing them internally. Yes, a lot of money as far as how they’re clamping down on their own, their own companies, but also what it’s doing to some of our companies that are trying to get in there and do business
ASMAN: Susan,John Scott, what a great panel. Thank you all for being here. Appreciate it. Well, it’s one of the.
Program: Your World with Cavuto
Station: Fox News Channel
SANDRA SMITH: Choppers still taking a bite out of Apple, the tech giant blowing through earnings and sales expectations, including big iPhone sales. The stock is little change in the after hours, but what is this telling us about the state of the US economy, the global economy, I should say? Let’s talk to our money guy, Scott Martin. I mean, record profits, dollar 30 a share, a record quarter record, June, record quarter, I mean, sales. One hundred and ninety four billion in cash. And by the way, Tim Cook is also confirming that return to office has been delayed to October and possibly later. So they’re doing all this while so many people are still working from home. I mean, Apple just keeps winning.
SCOTT MARTIN: They keep winning like Charlie Sheen once was, Sandra. And I’ll tell you what I mean. The numbers are outstanding, like you mentioned. I’ll throw in another one to record numbers for iPhone sales. Five billion, by the way, Sandra, ahead of what the street expected, five billion sports fans ahead in revenue. So, I mean, the estimates can’t even be high enough for Apple yet. You made a really good point, Sindarin. You this from your experience in the market, the market’s flat, the apple prices is flat. The stock price, rather, after hours is flat. And some of the other companies that came out like Google, Microsoft, others are kind of flattish. Same thing as well, because they’re already expected. Yeah, these are expectations that are built in this market. So be careful if you’re out there buying these stocks as an investor.
SANDRA SMITH: So while we’re all complaining about higher prices of our groceries or fuel, certainly we’re not letting the six hundred dollar iPhone bother us. There are still buying that. What does that say about the state of the economy?
SCOTT MARTIN: Well, I would love to find a six hundred dollar iPhone because, I mean, the last one I bought, this one right here was like a thousand and five. I mean, look at you know, there’s refurbished. That’s exactly right. The lower models, which, by the way, every time they do an upgrade on the iOS or a new iPhone comes out, that other model gets stupider, it seems like. But here’s the point. You’re right. It just do an experiment. If you go out today or go out tonight, walk around and see how many people are glued to their phones, where they’re walking around or in their cars driving. It’s unbelievable how these things are basically an extension of our arms and legs here. So the fact is these are integrated more than ever into our lives via the service revenue, too, by the way, which is another great number in today’s earnings report for Apple service. Revenue was about a billion ahead of street expectations as well. So that’s like the the Apple music, the Apple Arcade, things like that cloud. So, Sandra, the fact is, Apple is the biggest part of our lives, really, that we probably have as far as tech companies go. And they’re just going to keep on crushing
SANDRA SMITH: it and they crushed it. And I have to tell you, there’s an Apple and Grand Central here. And while Grand Central still half empty because there’s still not as many trains, there is still a line to get in the Apple store there. They stop you. If you don’t have a mass, they hand you a max, they line you up the stairs like this. And I mean, people just keep buying them. So that turned up in the earnings. Great to see you, Scott. Fellow Chicagoans. Thank you. So you all right after.
Program: Fox Business Tonight
Station: Fox News Channel
BRIAN BRENBERG: Well, joining me now to discuss is Carol Roth, former investment banker and author of The War on Small Business, and Scott Martin Kingsview Wealth Management chief investment officer. Welcome to you both. Carol, start with you. And that’s what it looks sneaky to me. I don’t like it. But here’s the bigger problem. This is what rationing looks like when you’re standing in line for products that are shrinking and not there on the shelf. To begin with, the Biden economy has kind of become the rationing economy, has it not, as well.
CAROL ROTH: Any fan of Seinfeld knows this shrinkage is not a good thing. And so we don’t want to see things going down. It does. It does. There is a real cost here that’s being passed on to the consumer. And whether it’s the Biden administration telling us that we’re going to save 16 cents on a hot dog or these shifts in packaging, they’re trying to be deceptive about what’s going on in terms of central planning and the results, as you said, whether you want to call it rationing or less bang for the buck or whatnot. It is a tax. It is a cost to the consumer who is the one who ends up bearing it every single time.
BRENBERG: You know, Scott, it’s sneaky. You wouldn’t maybe notice this right up front when you’re at the grocery store. But over time, as these stories come out, as you go to the grocery store and start looking for it, people are going to notice that’s going to be their frame of reference for this economic moment, not the fact that we’re growing. We are. It’s the fact that you can’t get what you want, that people are having to cut corners a little bit. Scott, I just have to look at this and say this is eventually going to affect consumer confidence, business confidence, and it could get in the way of this recovery really getting to the level it ought to get to. Do you have that same concern?
SCOTT MARTIN: Agreed. I mean, it feels like somebody’s pulling one over on us, the consumer now like a frightened turtle. I go in to the grocery stores these days and I get worried about the prices themselves, you know what I mean? Like, it’s the prices that really bother me. The shrinkage, I don’t know. I mean, if you notice, most of the stuff that we’re showing is in this shrinkage or shrink basket of goods, it’s stuff you probably shouldn’t be putting in your body anyway. So maybe they’re doing you a favor there. But the reality is, you’re right, Brian, this is just one little thing, one little kind of like poke at the consumer to say, hey, you can’t have this, or maybe you had it better back in the day, but now it’s this way and you have to deal with it. And that’s not good for the future economy, if that’s the way it’s going to be.
BRENBERG: I think we have to pay royalties to Seinfeld for all the references we’re getting here. But that’s another issue. Scott Carroll, stick
SCOTT MARTIN: That was the scene.
BRENBERG: Stick a stick around. I got to go to AC Webster. He’s in Dundon, Florida, covering a sign of hope, thankfully for some businesses in the Sunshine State Ashley.
ASHLEY WEBSTER: Well, you know what, Brian, you guys were just talking about shrink inflation, which is a horrible term just by itself, but we can talk about inflation when it comes to the number of people who are actually working. What a concept. Back on June twenty six, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis cut off that extra three hundred a week in federal unemployment benefits, saying, no, we’ve got enough jobs that are open that can be filled. So we’re not going to pay people basically to stay at home. I’m at the Fenway Hotel, as you say, in Dunedin. Florida is in Pinellas County on the beautiful Gulf Coast and this place at the height of the covid pandemic. Brian had seven employees just managing to keeping it ticking over. But once things started to reopen, they had a hard time finding workers. But guess what? When you cut off that money supply from Washington, D.C., magic things happen. Let’s bring in Mickey Melendez. He’s the general manager of the family here. Mickey, listen, there are those who will say it makes no difference. People are not going to work. Even if you cut off that extra three hundred a week, you say it was like turning the spigot on.
MICKEY MELENDEZ: It was really pretty much going from zero to 100 percent. It felt like for us we saw a 40 percent increase in applications since that moment and we could not be any more thrilled than that.
WEBSTER: So you fully staff have, what, about 90 employees, employees?
MELENDEZ: And right now we’re touching around 50 to. And the best part is a lot of them been retained from the past in the ones of being able to bring on board since that time, also retained as well.
WEBSTER: So you’re saying thank you, Governor, the. Absolutely. All right, Mickey, thank you very much. I also wanted to point out, Brian, there is a lawsuit as that has been in other states, challenging the state of Florida for cutting off those benefits early. They are due to run out on Labor Day, September the 6th. That lawsuit says it was done purely for political purposes and that they still cannot get by on a living, cannot pay for basic essentials. So basically to see where that pans out, because both Indiana and Maryland lawsuits that were successful in the state again began paying those benefits. It’s not something that Florida wants to do, especially businesses who have been struggling for so long just to get enough workers to keep the business ticking over. Brian, back to you.
BRENBERG: Ashley Webster in Dunedin, Florida. Thank you, sir, for that reporting. Well, we’ve got Scott and Carol back with us on this one. Carol, go to you again. You know, you look at these employment issues when it comes to the unemployment benefits and the economists are all over the map. You know, they’re saying we don’t really know if this is making a difference when it comes to hiring, but you talk to every small business owner just like Ashley did, and they say exactly the same thing. Thank goodness we’re finally getting people applying for jobs. Your thoughts on what’s happening in Florida?
ROTH: Yeah, I mean, we know that it’s the case that you have the government competing with you for for an employee, obviously, that’s going to cause an issue. And they added in 2020, the unemployment benefits were taxable. There’s been stimulus money. Even if you haven’t made up every single dollar, that small amount differential to stay home versus going back to work, a lot of people are going to choose that, particularly during the summer months, maybe in the fall when the weather is not as nice or the kids can get back into school. That’s going to be a different choice. But we have seen this from small business owners and they have just been absolutely decimated. This is the group that has borne the brunt of the shutdown. They’re bearing the increase in inflation we’re talking about. They’re bearing the competing with the government for employees. And unfortunately, this is the backbone of the economy and not enough politicians seem to care.
BRENBERG: Scott. Those small business owners Carol is talking about, I think are just yearning for September to get here when across the country those enhanced benefits are supposed to go away. But now we’ve got the Delta variant and now we’ve got the mask mandates and that conversations about vaccine requirements. Again, it’s starting to look like a situation, Scott, where you get the federal government or state government leaders saying, you know what, we need to extend these benefits just a little bit further and guess what? It never ends. Are you afraid that that’s going to happen, Scott?
MARTIN: Right. Because, like, look at all the money we’re making, all the fun we’re having. You know, like I like how Carol said and she said it’s something that I’ve actually not heard it said before, which was the government competing with small businesses like trashing small business, the government with unlimited funds just to dole out non-stop to keep people out of the workforce. If you look at the latest JOLTS survey, which I think is job opening, labor turnover survey, don’t ask me to explain that again. That is nine million jobs, nine million plus, by the way, Brian, nine million plus jobs gone unfilled now at record levels. And so nobody wants to go back to work Carol’s right. It’s summer. Kids are home. Kids may go back to school in the fall. May not. And frankly, the other thing and we’re not thinking about guys psychologically, if you’ve been off work for like a year getting paid by the government, getting a nice wage, by the way, are you just going to run back into that hot kitchen or on the street and do whatever, drive the cab, whatever it is like? That’s another thing to psychologically. People aren’t quite there yet to want to go back and work a hard job either.
BRENBERG: At such a good point, Scott, nobody’s talking about the long term consequences of being out of work that long. We ought to be because they’re real. Scott and Carol, thanks to both of you for being with us today. We appreciate it.
Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses weekly jobless claims, how long it will take to return to 2019 employment numbers, and the market reaction to jobless claims, earnings reports and Chairman Powell’s Congressional testimony.