Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses what could be ahead in 2022. He talks about how many companies are buried with paperwork on Rollover IRAs and Roths, plus breaks down the financial markets’ “Santa Rally”.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the state of our economy, the Omicron surge, wage growth and inflation.
Station: Fox Business News
GUY BENSON: President Biden today announcing an extended pause on federal loan payments until May of twenty two, claiming the COVID pandemic is the cause bit of an odd decision considering the administration seems to like promoting the idea that inflation and supply chain concerns are blown out of proportion. And despite lots of job openings all over the country, a new poll from Gallup shows 67 percent of Americans believe economic conditions are getting worse. A number not seen since the beginning of the pandemic. So what is the true state of our economy right now? Here to discuss is Fox News contributor Scott Martin of Kingsview Wealth Management. Scott, first we talk about this sweater. Was this a you purchase? Was this a lost bet? What happened here?
SCOTT MARTIN: Well, basically everything and guy, to be honest with you, my mom still dresses me because I need that kind of help and it’s on her. She picked it tonight. And so that’s it, man. But it’s kind of like it’s a mixture, though, right? Is it an ugly sweater? Is it a fugly one? Is it even a sweater? But it’s on tonight.
BENSON: It appears to be a sweater. I’ll leave it to others to decide whether it deserves the fugly moniker. Let’s talk about something that many people believe is ugly the economy. How’s that for a transition? The talking points have come down from the White House and they say We are better off as a country on all of these metrics than we were a year ago. Clearly, public opinion does not agree. Why?
MARTIN: Yeah, the economy is fugly to use the word, and maybe that’ll that’ll sweep the rest of the year here because it’s kind of like, you know, the more you drink, the better the economy looks. And that’s not a good thing because if you look at the data guy, since we’ve had even the resurgence in the Omicron variant or the newest variant, Macron or even just kind of this, this fallout from this big resurgence we had in the economy where we were growing it, you know, double digits of GDP and now we’re back to single digits in GDP and we’re really creating a couple hundred thousand jobs per month and wage growth is slowing it. Inflation is going crazy. I think a lot of folks out there are feeling what what we all do, which is the fact that inflation is way higher than what people’s wage growth is. So when you look at like how much people are making versus how much they can spend and how that affects consumer confidence. Inflation is way outpacing what we’re all taking home. So we’re losing kind of that gap against what things are costing. And then certainly the fact, too, that when you have the stock market that is as volatile as it is, you know, every given day the market is up or down a couple of percent. Some of our favorite companies are down five percent, up 10, down 15 and so forth. That puts together a pretty tough environment in which to operate as we end the year here.
BENSON: So you just outlined a lot of the reasons for pessimism, and that is, you know, that’s a sense shared by most Americans, obviously based on the data. What would be maybe one or two points on optimism, not pessimism, as you look forward into 2022?
MARTIN: Well, the fact, too, that there is probably going to be, as you have talked about with your panel, maybe less of a devastating impact from the latest variant. In the fact, too, that the problem is is that the psychological damage that I think the lockdowns and the regulations and just the curtailing of a lot of business activity, the psychological damage there is pretty high. So the fact that we’re going to get further away, hopefully when we get past this latest deal with Omicron. God willing, is that we’re going to have hopefully a chance to get the psychological part of us rebuilt. And I think that’s going to take some time. But once we start realizing that we can win against this variant and we can win against this virus, and hopefully people will be able to make their own choice as far as their health. I mean, if people want to get vaccinations fine, don’t do it. I have mine. I had my booster the other day. It’s fine. But if people do want to do that, that’s fine. But the fact that the government still feel like they need to take care of everybody on this hopefully allows people maybe down the road to make their own decisions and feel comfortable about going out in the world and doing what they want to do as far as economic activity.
BENSON: Now, of course, you have the president, as I mentioned at the top with this new extension on the moratorium on the loan payments. I mean, at some point you can’t keep using COVID in the emergency as an excuse in the term moral hazard comes to mind as well. It’s a policy we’ll be watching here. Scott, great to see you and your sweater. Thank you.
MARTIN: Thank you.
Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses how the DOW is up and how the Federal Reserve just announced they will be buying less bonds and trimming their balance sheet to address higher than expected inflation reports.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses patience with the market, buying during the dips, earnings reports and profit margins.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: In a corner of your screen there, you’re noticing that stocks are spreading ahead, and it’s a reminder that every time the market gets shellacked, even though in this case it was a significant shellacking over three days. You are richly rewarded if you just stay patient and you’re buying the dips. In fact, history suggests that you’re a dip. If you don’t do that, eventually, that won’t always pan out, but it is today. Scott Martin with us. Scott, what do you think of that strategy? It’s richly rewarded investors, if they just hang tight, can’t always be that way, but it seems to be again not making a big deal out of one day. But what do you think?
SCOTT MARTIN: The riches do come, Neil, and the riches come to those who are patient in those who stay on the path, I mean, as an investment adviser. Every day it’s like you’re either looking at stocks to buy or you’re you’re psychologically counseling clients to just hang in there. In fact, NeIl, to your point about, you know, don’t be a dip and buy the dip, find that cash or find the wherewithal to maybe rebalance some of the names that are doing better or worse, depending on the day, and start allocating to names that look really bad. You know a couple of things in the last couple of days in the energy space. The materials space. Some things we talked about last week on the show are names that are just way down and completely indiscriminately sold, and ones that they feel terrible when you put the buy order in on them. But they’re ones that really start to bounce on days like today because they get so hated on those down days like we saw earlier this week and late last week.
CAVUTO: How are you playing next year, Scott? Normally, after three years of double digit, heady double digit advances over 20 percent year in and year out, at the very least, I’m on the fourth year you’d see things dramatically slow down, I think the Wall Street Journal had said last week maybe no more than two or three percent next year. Where are you on this?
MARTIN: Yeah, and 2020 was supposed to be the Great Depression, and twenty twenty one was going to be bad. Well, because, you know, it’s like the more I hear those predictions, Neil, the more I’m like, OK, here we go to all time highs. How I’m playing it next year, I’m probably sucking my thumb a lot, hiding under my desk, forwarding my calls just because sometimes I mean, we’ve talked about this to me in the last few weeks. Sometimes it’s best to just kind of turn away a little bit and think about how stocks are positively sloped over time. Think about some of the earnings reports that we’re seeing from the Apples and the Adobe’s and the visas and all those companies out there that are so part of our daily lives and there are so great product developers and their parts of our future that we know we’re going to have in our lives. And you just have to be confident that these companies are going to figure out they’re going to figure out profit margins, they’re going to figure out hiring, they’re going to figure out R&D. And those are the companies we want to own in our stock portfolios. And those are the companies. Frankly, man, as we’ve heard those dire predictions. Those are the ones that always beat out those predictions and return well to our investors.
CAVUTO: Now, would they include the big well-known names that have run up far and fast anyway, the Amazons, the Apples and Microsofts disproportionately weighted in technology? I know. But how do you how do you pick your winners that have a winning record when it comes to earnings and even company forecasts that right now are holding up pretty strongly?
CAVUTO: We call this a pregnant pause. I apology for that. Just to let you know, here one of the things they do look for technology stocks. Part of this report was because they were disproportionately running up, returning about 40 percent last year, 35 percent the year before that 36 percent, I think the year before that, that they’re due for a slowdown, no matter how spectacular their earnings and their guidance looks. There is no way of knowing that, but that is just one of the things that’s out there and one of the points that I had wanted to raise with Scott. But I apologize for those technical difficulties. They are not micron related.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: Scott Martin on all this, Scott, keeping the politics out of it, does anyone ask the typical consumer or resident how he or she feels about this? Because invariably it’s going to mean higher energy costs? Say what you will on natural gas. It’s a cheap, efficient and still clean use of energy. And now they’ve got to seek out alternatives that are all going to be pricier.
SCOTT MARTIN: Correct. It’s all fun and games, Neal, until your wallet gets hurt, and I think that’s really one of the issues and in fact, one of the issues that we’re seeing really around the country now. What’s funny about this is if you go to Texas, to Arizona and most likely Florida as well as I put that cut into that category, you get to choose and they’re blocking the effort by governments locally to make consumers choose the electricity over natural gas because to your point, in the lead in with Lydia. Natural gas is something that, depending on how you how you use it, it’s it’s cleaner. It’s everywhere, it’s abundant, the United States, and it’s cheaper. So let’s naturally get rid of it and not use it and go to a power grid that doesn’t have the capacity, let’s say, for everybody to latch onto it or in some cases, the the electricity generation is not as clean. So when you look at it overall as a consumer, I think you think about it both how it’s going to impact your bottom line. And frankly, is it going to be that much more efficient and when it comes down to it being forced as a consumer to choose something over another because the government tells you to do that doesn’t leave the best taste in your mouth.
CAVUTO: What do you think of energy stocks in general? Energy contracts themselves because they’re getting whipsawed, certainly by Macron, and maybe some of these efforts to target more traditional forms of energy for 2022, How does a Scott Martin play it?
MARTIN: Scott Martin plays it with a lot of love, a lot of energy, love materials, and what’s funny is, Neil is that since Joe Biden has been in DC. Would you be surprised to know that the energy sector, the Chevron, the Exxon’s of the world are some of your best performing of the sectors out there? He hasn’t been 500 since this war on oil has been going on. It’s only now actually crude the stocks. So I believe that there’s going to be a lot of conjecture. There’s going to be a lot of back and forth with respect to how the administration is going to tackle the energy crisis or lack thereof that may be going on in the country. And so there’s going to be volatility and money managers, as advocates for clients were using that volatility, Neil to add to positions to put in new positions when they fall like they did yesterday, for example. And if you look at today just down in the lower quarter, their energy is one of your best performing sectors today as we’re getting the market rebound.
CAVUTO: Yeah, they are disproportionately weighted to when some of these populations, including the Dow, thank you very much, Scott. Good seeing you again, my friend Scott Martin on those developments here.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses capitulation in some names, when investors should add to their position and the reason for owning gold
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: Want to bring it to the best market gurus, Victoria Fernandez and Scott Martin. You know, the old market adage, just buy the first, the first hike, sell the penultimate rate hike. And now we’re hearing, at least from Bank of America, that it’s all wrong this time that the is there. The chief investment strategist, in fact, is looking for full blown capitulation. And of course, you know, Victoria, I think capitulation is different, at least from when I started in this business. It’s not a one day, even the two day event in my mind, it’s been happening for weeks, and I think we’re closer to the point where we should be buying. That’s selling your thoughts.
VICTORIA FERNANDEZ: Yeah, I would agree with you, Charles, that it’s not a one day event, and I think the last couple of weeks and all the volatility we’ve seen is proof of that. So look, if you’re waiting on the sidelines waiting for that one big moment, trying to time the market on what that one capitulation moment is going to be, you know how we feel about that. We think that’s a fool’s errand and you need to be building your portfolio over time. But look, here’s the key. You look at the S&P five hundred and it’s down a couple percentage points from its all time high, but that’s really being driven by a handful of names. Look at your shopping list. The average stock is down 13 to 14 percent from its all time high. So get in there on some of these pullbacks. Get the names that you want and start building your portfolio, and I think you’re going to have a lot of opportunities to do that with the volatility going into twenty twenty two as we still do have uncertainty around growth, inflation and central banks.
PAYNE: So, Scott, I mean, are you waiting for that ultimate capitulation moment? I guess in this day and age, it would be a 20 points on the Dow, maybe a three percent move on on the S&P. Or are we living it right now?
SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, I mean, it’s around us. Charles and I think to Victoria’s Point, it may not be this this big two, three or four or five day kind of break. We’re already seeing that in several names. And so the capitulation is here in some names. I mean, look at Teladoc, look at Peloton, look at Zoom. I’ll look at Adobe just the other day. I mean, my goodness, if you’re an Adobe investor like we are, we took that pullback of the 10 percent after earnings and guidance to just say, Hey, we want to add some more here. So you’re seeing the opportunities arise in these individual names. So just don’t wait for the big down day, I think over on the markets, but watch these initial names as victoriously. You don’t get the shopping list out. And when they pull back to say support, you got to get in there and add your position.
PAYNE: You know, so funny. I’m I really know. Still, a lot of people still waiting for a capitulation from March 2009 that one final leg down. All right, so let’s talk about the last seventy two hours, 48, 72 hours. We’ve had different narratives every single day, right? Initially, when we had the FOMC meeting, techs rocked and then they got rocked. Cyclicals yesterday led the way, and now today’s cyclicals are getting slammed. The fence names show life earlier in the session. And guess what, Victoria? Here comes tech again. I mean, first of all, you know, a lot of people are wondering, though, about the shelter in the storm. But more importantly, have we figured out what the what the Fed is going to do and what it means for the market?
FERNANDEZ: No, I don’t think we figure it out completely, and you see that with the discontinuity between the equity market and between the fixed income market, and so really you need to have that balanced portfolio right now instead of trying to time that rotation perfectly. You know, we’ve been trimming our growth, your names when they’re on updates, trimming some of those down and focusing more on cyclicals and more on value names. We’ve talked about consumer facing names. We liked Target, Lululemon, Dick’s Sporting Goods, but we’re really focusing on the financials right now. Look over the last month, including today and see the pullback in the financials, especially in the bank names Bank of America, JPMorgan. You’ve got names here that have good balance sheets. They’re cheap to the market. You look and see, possibly dividend raises next year. And we do think the longer under the curve is going to move a little bit higher to catch up with inflation expectations. I think the long into the curve is pulling back now because of Omicron, so we would focus on some of those names.
PAYNE: All right. And by the way, we’ve got a great dividend guy coming in 30 seconds, but I’m give Scott the last word. First two things, Scott. I’m loving the fact that on the Nasdaq, at least it’s the individual investor bringing back those so-called meme stocks. And now these other tech names, some you just talked about, but also Gold Gold’s acting pretty intriguing and living up to the old to It’s all respectable, you know, being an alternative to inflation. Is it time to start to add some gold here?
MARTIN: We believe so. We’ve been back in gold, Charles, given the fact that gold was not acting well for most of the year and I think the shine was off gold then and certainly as the inflation numbers have started to really come to pass, I think gold is finally getting its its luster back, let’s say. But the reason you own gold is not just because it goes up on days like today, but because it’s doing something different than other things in your portfolio. It’s different than equities, it’s different than fixed income and hopefully different than some of your other alternatives. Maybe, maybe crypto. So gold for us is a position in the portfolio is something to hold here as we try to navigate this volatility.
PAYNE: And as my man, William Devane said, you can hold it in your hand and look at it. Victoria, Scott – Have a great weekend.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses recent market response, stocks and bonds, a possible rate hike and the potential for a rally at the beginning of the year.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: We have Scott Martin here right now to see how much further we can get the lawyers attention Scoot is the Kingsview Asset Management CIO, Fox News contributor as well. You know, Scott, you know, Charlie, I would bounce around this idea of what the Fed will line up. Maybe not line up, but I’m just wondering what you think the markets do in response. The more specific Jerome Powell is, maybe the more worried they get, the more general its tone, maybe the more worried they get on top of that. It’s a no win situation for him today, isn’t it?
SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, and he’s been specific, Neil, and that hasn’t worked out too well for him, as you and Charlie just discussed. Now what’s interesting is when you’re talking about the market’s reaction, I think you’ve got a tale of two cities there. You’ve got stocks which are generally weak or meandering at best. And then you’ve got bonds which have been going down in yield and up in price. So if he is indeed going to do two or three rate hikes next year, as one of my friends best says, the market has a funny way of showing that they actually care because rates are down. Since the Fed projected more interest rate hikes coming down the pike versus rates going up like they would be coordinating with the Fed,
CAVUTO: What is that telling you? Normally you would. You would glean from that. They’re looking at a slowdown.
MARTIN: Yes, I think you’re exactly right, and I think they’re also looking at the bond market that is looking at inflation possibly getting a little tamer in two thousand twenty two. So maybe the Fed seeing the slowdown and seeing that inflation may get a little bit more under control because it is slowing at that pace that it’s on right now. You maybe have less rate hikes than we actually think we projected so far.
CAVUTO: So the market and whether it’s returned and that’s always a debate. I’ve talked to some analysts who say, you know, given the strong earnings, you know, the multiples aren’t nearly as out of whack as you would think. Where are you on this?
MARTIN: The market’s high, but it’s not extremely overvalued. You’re right. If you look back at ninety nine, if you look at twenty seven, the market was trading depending on the index. Twenty five, thirty times. Right now it’s trading at twenty one twenty two, so it’s up there. It’s just not all the way where it was in past bull markets. So in our opinion, if we continue to get strong earnings and we continue to get an expansionary fed where maybe they hike rates later in twenty twenty two, I think you still see this market recover and rally at the beginning of the year.
CAVUTO: I’m taking a look at where you would put your money as you sort of wait this out. How do you play this?
MARTIN: Yeah, we’ve been moving stuff around a lot actually in the last couple of months, just because the market’s been kind of ebbing and flowing. We see certain sectors outperform some days and underperform other days. So what we’ve been doing, Neil is putting more money into some of the inflationary, let’s say, affected areas are looking at materials and energy specifically to take advantage of what is still a largely increasing inflationary environment.
CAVUTO: Got it, my friend. Thank you very much, Scott Martin. We’ll be hearing from a little bit later in the show.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses Elon Musk and Tesla, spending problems, and whether expenditures will come under control.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: Scott Martin joins us. He always says controversial things, but you know, he’s good at what he does as is Susan
SCOTT MARTIN: By accident,
CAVUTO: by accident. I hear you, buddy. They it very nice hair, very nice hair. Scott The most important question, then, is with all the money. Why does why does Elon Musk cut his own hair? What do you think?
MARTIN: Well, from a guy that doesn’t cut his own hair, I think he feels like he can do anything he wants. And as Susan said, he’s the richest man in the world. A lot of that is stock options, but he’s created a lot of wealth for others to make money besides employees, also investors. So I think Neil, he kind of goes to the beat of his own drum and obviously, depending on who he’s attacking over Twitter on any particular day, he tends to win those arguments too.
CAVUTO: You know, and and you raise a good point when talking about, you know, we tend to look at these things linearly, like how much you’re paying a tax. It turns out he’s spent quite a bit in taxes. Thank you. But even if you were to take and confiscate all the funds of the richest, it wouldn’t come close to addressing, you know, the twenty three, twenty four trillion dollars in debt. We just pile up pile up. That isn’t the result of not taxing them enough. It it’s really the result. And this has happened to Republican and Democratic administrations alike of spending much, much more than we have.
MARTIN: That’s right. It’s not a tax problem. It’s a spending problem. And obviously, if you look at the Treasury Department receipts over the last several years, we’re at record levels. So that tells you they have the money, they just overspend. So will they ever get it together as far as the Democrats or Republicans no, because the government likes to spend and where they spend on things that are actually worthwhile or whether it’s or whether it’s waste fraud and abuse is up to anybody’s debate. But the regardless point is that they do overspend and they have the tax dollars to actually be a little more responsible. But they’re not, you
CAVUTO: know, long before you were born, probably when we had the the Bill Clinton internet boom going on and we were had surpluses for a while. It really took something like that to to pay our, you know, our debt down to size. Certainly, the deficits went away and started surpluses. But short of something like that was, do you ever think we’ll we’ll we’ll get this solved?
MARTIN: I don’t know, because it’s kind of funny money, I mean, the dollar is the world’s reserve currency to add an increase in the debt ceiling, as we just recently did, or to add numbers to a balance sheet that’s at the Treasury Department is a win. It’s not really anything that takes a lot of work. So there’s really no adult in the room when it comes to the spending that we get out of D.C. and therefore I don’t think they’re going to stop.
CAVUTO: All right. We’ll watch it closely. Scott Martin, thank you very much.
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PORTFOLIO MANAGER INSIGHTS
WEEKLY INVESTOR COMMENTARY | 12.15.21
Economics is often called the “dismal science” in part because of its poor track record at making predictions. Perhaps the biggest reason for this is the difficulty in determining whether something is a new trend or a temporary event. This has been the case for inflation forecasts not only over the past two years, but since at least the global financial crisis. What’s different this time is that rapid inflation is rattling markets and consumers alike. How should investors adjust to a world of rising prices for the first time in decades?
Last week’s Consumer Price Index showed that headline inflation grew by 6.8% in November compared to a year earlier, and 4.9% when food and energy costs are excluded. This is more evidence that prices could rise faster than expected for some time. Nearly all components of the index contributed to higher prices, including the cost of energy, cars and meat. This is the fastest rate of price increases in nearly four decades and an acceleration from last month’s reading of 6.2%.
For many, including the Fed, the defining word for inflation has been, until recently, “transitory.” Unfortunately, this has two interpretations. Transitory can be taken to mean “short-lived,” i.e., lasting only a few months or quarters, or “temporary” meaning that the effects are due to a one-time event and will eventually fade. And while these definitions are related, they have different implications for the global economy.
Inflation is the highest in almost 40 years
1. Last week’s CPI reading shows that consumer inflation is the highest since 1982. Much of this increase is due to food and energy prices. However, even Core CPI has reached 4.9% – well above the notional 2% target that the Fed and other economists consider to be healthy.
There are a couple points of irony here. The first is that the Fed’s biggest historical success is arguably its handling of the 1970s and early 1980s stagflationary period. By using their interest rate tools, the Fed was able to control inflation, with recessionary side effects.
The second is that the inflation pressures that many feared following the 2008 financial crisis never materialized. There are a number of reasons for this including the deflationary effects of technology and globalization, which make goods more cheaply available, in addition to more arcane details such as the Fed paying banks interest on excess reserves, which increased the incentive to keep money parked at the central bank rather than lending it into the system.
Markets expect inflation to stay high in the near-term
1. Various market measures of inflation, including those implied by TIPS, suggest that inflation could remain higher for longer.
2. However, even these measures expect longer-term inflation to fall back to around 2 to 3% once short-term pricing pressures subside. These are due to the pandemic, supply chain problems, energy costs and more.
Whatever the reasons, this time is undeniably different. While the long-term deflationary forces are still here, they are overpowered by the near-term effects of the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, excess demand for goods and services, and rising energy prices. This is making it difficult to predict exactly when inflation might subside. And, even when it does, it may remain above historical averages especially when compared to recent history.
Still, unless the underlying economy were to fundamentally change, it is the case that these effects are “temporary” in nature. This doesn’t necessary mean that they will fade quickly. But, like the old quote puts it, “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
Where does that leave consumers and investors? Rising inflation has already soured the mood among households with near-term inflation expectations jumping and consumer sentiment plummeting. However, consumers are still spending and household balance sheets are still in a strong position. Unlike the 1970s when the economy was contracting and the job market was shrinking, inflation today is rising alongside a robust economic expansion.
Consumers are feeling the pinch
1. Consumer sentiment has plummeted in no small part due to rising inflation concerns. However, consumers are still spending and demand remains high.
2. It may take time for consumers to adjust to higher inflation levels than they have experienced over the past couple decades.
For investors, it continues to be important to stay diversified and to hold assets that can adapt to evolving inflationary environments. Many asset classes that investors already own have these properties including stocks, commodities and real estate, to name but a few. Large cap companies, for instance, tend to have pricing power and can therefore adapt over time.
Rising inflation may push up interest rates which makes bond investing challenging, but these trends in rates have occurred in fits and starts. If any asset class is vulnerable in these periods, it’s plain cash. Rising prices erode the value of cash holdings, underscoring the importance of investing in appropriately diversified portfolios for both return and income.
The bottom line? While inflation remains hot, investors should stay invested. Many parts of a diversified portfolio, including stocks, have historically been resilient to inflation.
Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. (2021)