SVP Paul Nolte Interviewed on WGN Radio 12.14.21

Kingsview SVP Paul Noltediscusses stock market updates, the effect of the omicron variant, inflation and commodity prices.

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6:19

CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox News 12.10.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses different reasons people buy – and sell – stocks. He also discusses the “fast and furious” nature of market phases, and how investors must realize that their portfolios need different things at different times.

Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Date: 12/10/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 2:00PM

CHARLES PAYNE: CEOs insiders, meanwhile, are cashing in their stocks at historic rates from Elon Musk to Google co-founders. Sixty three point five billion dollars have been sold through November. That’s up 50 percent from last year. Joining me now, Rob Luna and Scott Martin. And you know, Scott, I don’t really get too frustrated when insiders sell unless they sell a large percentage of their stock. But for many, it’s a it’s a problem. I mean, would you be buying? Tesla’s made a 50 point reversal off the low today, Alan, would you be a buyer if these insiders are selling?

SCOTT MARTIN: Sometimes it’s a good thing to do that, I mean, and here’s the funny thing, Charles, to your point about people getting so emotional and so wrapped up in what insiders are doing sometimes are selling for different reasons than you’re buying. I mean, they’re selling for four tax loss or tax gain type capture, as well as the fact that maybe if their personal situations that they’re taking advantage of or my goodness, as investors, sometimes they’re selling because the stock is way up and they want to just take some chips off the table. So what I like to look at in that particular notion of Tesla is I like to buy Tesla on big down days, big, big washout days. We had one recently, Charles earlier this week when the New York Times came out with that report about the self-driving technology. So yes, I like Tesla long term here. I think it’s a great part of our future. But I want to wait for those big down days because those are short lived when Tesla pulls back hard. That’s when you jump into buying news in the next couple of days, it’s up.

PAYNE: Of course, rob the reason one of the main reasons we’re seeing all the selling this year and the new laws and the tax hikes are coming and a lot of these folks are are cashing in stock just so they’re getting paid some of these tax obligations. So when you look at it on a company by company basis, when does it become a big deal?

ROBERT LUNA: Yeah. And I completely agree with Scott, actually, surprisingly, Charles, you know, from the standpoint of, you know, these executives look, they file something called a 10b5 one. Investors can look at that and you could actually see that these sales, a lot of times are predetermined. I work with a lot of corporate level executives. This is something we do just as risk management when you think about it, Charles. That’s where the majority of their income is coming from. So they have to go ahead and sell those stocks. But to your point, it is a case by case basis. Don’t sell the stock or buy a stock just based off of what insider is doing. And to Scott’s point, if you like these stocks when they get beat up for any reason, if the excuse does, your is the CEO is selling, go ahead and buy them then, but don’t let this determine your investment strategy.

PAYNE: And a quick note there is apparently the AMC CEO sold 90 percent of his stock. I don’t know. I’m not cool with that. The stock got hit is still on a lot of pressure. I’m really surprised he did that. I don’t know. I think he may have taken advantage of investors on that one. Let me ask you guys about today’s session because some folks are confused. Rob, I’ll start with you. Does a day like today when we could have easily been off a whole lot more? But we’re not. Does that signal anything to you?

LUNA: Yeah, I mean, I’m really surprised at your previous guest is a technical analyst, there was kind of talking about this. The market’s extremely resilient. We have so many opportunities and reasons to go down here. And now we’re seeing all the predictions of a twenty to twenty five percent pullback next year. What I’ve learned a long time ago in this market, Charles, is you want to go against consensus and the obvious set up for next year is probably what what you do not want to be doing. I think the market is strong as long as the interest rates stay low. You’ve got a 10 year cylinder, 1.5 inflation, as we saw this morning as an issue. Cash is trash. You want to be invested in assets. Use these opportunities as a pullback. This market’s going higher, in my opinion.

PAYNE: You know, Rob, I mean, let me let me start with you on this one, Scott. It’s it is interesting to me, though. Yesterday, the best performing stocks were the most boring stocks, right? The S&P 500 low volatility names. It’s just I mean, they’re right is the Pepsis of the world and the McDonald’s in the world. I mean, is there a time when you say, OK, I want to park a little bit more money than normal and boring, but steady?

MARTIN: Yes. And we’ve been doing that for our clients, Charles, but we don’t stay there. I mean, these market phases are fast and furious. And then some days, like you mentioned you, the staples, are there. Other days, energy is there. Other days utilities have been great and then other days tech. My goodness, which has been a great sector for us the last several years is lit up like a Christmas tree that may or may not have been set on fire. And so you have to realize that there are times you need to have different things in your portfolio. Doing different things at different times and having those experiences over a long term period is how you’re going to win in this market.

PAYNE: I got that one my man the Christmas tree set on fire. You know, we, you know, we’re in low shoe sales kind of analogies over here these days. That’s all I’m saying. I’ve got one for you, a spoiler alert for all your sex and the City fans. That’s Robin Scott. There was a big death on this reboot. A character was actually using a Peloton bike ahead of their demise. Now the stock is down today, but it really probably isn’t. There was a massive downgrade on it. And Scott, I think the notion here is a lot of people were going for these stay at home stocks, you know, and we were told even after the pandemic is over, the hybrid work thing is going to be there forever. Forty percent of us will work from home and all of them, one by one by one, have been taken to the woodshed. Is there any hope for Peloton or any of these other names?

MARTIN: There is I mean, I think some of these stocks, like you mentioned, Peloton, whether it’s these, these these documentaries or say these, this these comedies or whatever you want to call that that show taking shots at Peloton, I think these stocks get overdone. Charles, I mean, you look at know, Rob mentioned the technical analysis aspect to think, look at the RSI, look at the relative strength on Peloton, look at the stochastic, look at the MACD histogram. This is all really cool stuff and technical analysis like they’re way overdone. So you have the ability to kind of ride the wave here. I think you got to get into belts on here.

PAYNE: All right. Hey, here’s the good news. There will be a vacancy for a main character if they make another movie, Rob. I checked you out and some of those honeymoon pictures. My man, you are perfect for the role and you could be the new Mr. Big any day. Both you guys, Rob Scott, have a great weekend.

MARTIN: Yeah, maybe bigger.

PAYNE: All right, folks, I love hearing from you on Twitter

5:58

SVP Paul Nolte Interviewed on WGN Radio 12.7.21

Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses updates on the stock market in relation to the pandemic and Covid-19 variants. He also talks about the job market and interest rates.

Click here to listen to the interview.

6:48

Nolte Notes 12.6.21

December 6, 2021

“Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten (us) into.” In describing the current economic conditions, Fed Chair Powell admitted what everyone has known for some time, inflation is not transitory and may require a bit more aggressive Fed policy. From a quicker tapering of the bond purchases to maybe raising rates quicker in 2022, the markets are reacting negatively to the thought that the very easy monetary policy that has been in place for the past 20+ months is coming to an end. The employment report on Friday was the exclamation point on the strong economic data. While the total number of “jobs created” came in at half of what was expected, the employment rate dropped to the lowest levels since the start of the pandemic. Wage growth remains well above 5% annually. The coming week we’ll get a read on consumer prices as well as how many folks are quitting jobs. With the money that has been pushed out by the government over the past two years, many, especially older workers, have decided to leave the workforce entirely. It is a Covid effect on the job market that is likely to have an impact for many years to come.

The change in tone from Chair Powell coincides with the economic data coming in “hotter” than expected and a huge boost to GDP estimates. Based upon the Atlanta GDP model, estimates are for over 8% economic growth in the fourth quarter. Much of the supply chain problems can be attributed not to the lack of workers (yes that is part of the issue) but the huge jump in demand for goods. Looking at retail sales, historic growth has generally moved between 3-7% growth vs. year ago levels. Even coming out the recession in ’08, retail sales briefly touched 10% annual growth. Today that growth has been over 10% nearly the entire year with the most recent reading at almost 15%. With demand so far above historic trends, even accounting for the economic shutdown of a year ago, it is little wonder that prices are rising. This will be the Fed’s biggest challenge over the coming year or two; how to cool the economy without pushing it into another recession.

The number of stocks making new yearly lows has expanded to a level last seen during the depths of last March’s decline. Volume has increased with the market decline. On the NYSE, three consecutive days of declining volume exceeding advancing volume by at least three times has usually marked at least a short-term bottom in prices as investors bail on the market. Some of the measures of momentum and selling pressure are at levels usually seen around market bounces as well. So, just maybe the Santa rally is still in place. Worries about the Covid variant is also having some impact on stocks as investors fear reinstatement of some forms of economic restrictions. Hopefully lessons have been learned over the past year as we deal with the residual impacts from the virus and shutdowns.

The bond market is signaling a slowing of economic activity in 2022. Whether that is driven by the Fed or just the ending of various government support programs, the market move is unmistakable. So too is the change in difference between junk yields and government bonds. The change in the bond market is worth watching over the coming weeks to confirm the signal and by extension, a deeper reaction from the stock market.

The recent decline in stocks has impacted the growth part of the market more than value. Having been the darlings since last March’s bottom, growth stocks have been all the rage. The valuation differences between growth and value in the largest stocks hasn’t been seen since the late ‘90s. During the years following the market top in 2000, value, small and international stocks all did well in both absolute terms as well as relative to the broad market averages. Whether the coming years will be a 20+ year reprise of the tech wreck we’ll only see in a few years. But investors should do well to focus on the neglected parts of the market that still have solid fundamentals and underappreciated growth prospects.

The harsh decline in growth stocks over the past few weeks that has bled into the broader market may be setting up for the highly anticipated Santa Claus rally. If coal gets delivered, 2022 could be a tough year.

The opinions expressed in the Investment Newsletter are those of the author and are based upon information that is believed to be accurate and reliable but are opinions and do not constitute a guarantee of present or future financial market conditions.

2:30

SVP Paul Nolte Interviewed on WGN Radio 11.30.21

Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses stock market numbers in relation to COVID-19 variants. He also talks about the Treasury market and interest rates in the long run.

Click here to listen to the interview.

6:48

Portfolio Manager Insights | Weekly Investor Commentary – 12.1.21

Click here for the full commentary.

PORTFOLIO MANAGER INSIGHTS
WEEKLY INVESTOR COMMENTARY | 12.1.21
Investment Committee

In less than a week, the COVID-19 variant known as omicron has renewed public health concerns around the world. While the World Health Organization has stated that it could have “severe consequences,” reports from South Africa where the “variant of concern” was first identified suggest that symptoms have been mild. Only time will tell how severe – or not – the public health implications may be, especially as vaccination rates rise and other safety measures become commonplace.

Through all this, it’s more important than ever for investors to distinguish between public health issues – which can be fraught with politics and strong personal beliefs – and what’s best for their portfolios. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it’s that staying focused on the long run is the best approach.


There are growing public health concerns over the new COVID-19 variant

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

Key Takeaway: 
1. Investors have experienced multiple waves of COVID-19 during the pandemic. Still, the most impactful was the first wave when the economy was shut down.
2. Subsequent spikes, including due to the delta variant, have not even come close in terms of their economic and market impacts.

It’s generally accepted that COVID-19 is now “endemic” – i.e., like the flu or common cold, it’s here to stay. Unfortunately, this means that whether due to omicron or another strain, it is only a matter of time before new variants create public health concerns. Like the original COVID-19 strains and later the delta variant, these worries can escalate quickly due to the pace of infection. It’s possible for these variants to spread to multiple continents by the time they are identified, named, and appear in the news.

At the onset of the pandemic, this exponential pace created significant challenges for everyone, not least of which was the emotional toll of isolation and social distancing. Fortunately, the situation today is quite different. Individuals and businesses alike have fresh experience and playbooks for dealing with the pandemic and there is a much better understanding of the risks. Without diminishing the public health challenges ahead, this means that there is a stark distinction between how officials should respond to the ongoing crisis and how investors should respond in their portfolios.


Even before this, cases were rising as winter nears

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

1. Cases have been rising even before omicron due to the colder fall and winter months. Despite this, economic activity has remained solid and job gains have accelerated somewhat.

The delta wave that began in the summer showed that this is the case. Although infections spread rapidly, the death rate remained relatively low. Most importantly for investors, the economic and market impacts were minimal, especially when compared to the initial shutdown measures in 2020. Through that wave and the more recent uptick in cases, economic growth has been strong, hiring activity has accelerated, profits have reached record levels, and markets have continued to achieve new all-time highs. All this despite concerns around inflation, supply chains, politics, the Fed and more.

Of course, investors should always expect periods of market volatility. This is true even in the best of times, let alone when markets are at new highs and valuations are still above average. It is still true that the market has been quite calm by historical standards this year, despite occasional shallow pullbacks. What has made this possible is the strength of the economic expansion which is now over a year and a half in age. While there may be periods of short-term turbulence ahead, business cycles tend to last for many years if not decades.


Diversification is still the best approach for navigating the years ahead

KEY TAKEAWAY:

1. Whether or not the latest variant of concern becomes a serious public health and economic issue, diversification and staying invested are the best ways to invest through the next period.
2. This was true during the initial market pullback last year. While the past is never a guarantee of the future, those investors who stayed focused were rewarded within a matter of months.

In the end, portfolio diversification is still the primary tool for investors to achieve their financial goals while protecting from downside risk. The market crash that began in February 2020 emphasized that while trying to sell holdings and moving to cash are tempting, a rebound can occur when investors least expect it. Holding fast with an appropriate portfolio was the best approach throughout these periods.

Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. (2021)

3:00

Nolte Notes 11.29.21

November 29, 2021

The “Nu” variant of the Covid virus is making the rounds in South Africa and has put the fear back into investors that we are once again heading for economic lock/shut down. Friday’s trading is usually very quiet with a few folks coming in to trade a bit and head back home to finish off the Thanksgiving leftovers. However, this year, trading was the worst in 70 years as investors sold anything that benefits from an open economy. Even energy prices fell 10%. The economic data from earlier in the week was solid, with the weekly jobless claims the lowest since 1969 and consumer spending still robust. That all got tossed out the window Friday. The weekend should provide some information that may help investors assess the economic and markets risks heading into December. As usual, technology did better, and bond prices rallied as investors warmed to working at home longer and a Fed that is not likely (now) to be raising rates. If the focus turns more toward the latest variant, then the economic data won’t matter as it will be considered “old news”.

The markets have been trading poorly over the last two weeks, with only one day showing more stocks rising than falling. Friday was the culmination of a bad string, with nine times more declining volume than advancing on the NYSE. The last occurrence was back in September, just before the markets bottomed, resulting in a big October run. At least in the short-term, the selling may have peaked. That doesn’t mean stocks trade higher but expect more ragged trading as we get deeper in the Christmas season. Much of the trading next week will likely center on the path of the new Covid variant. If it is determined to be relatively mild, stocks could regain much of the losses. However, if it poses more risks, then stocks could trade lower still. The employment figures will end the week. The report should be very good and could bolster the markets. Although stocks may be once again beholden to the path of the virus.

As stocks declined, bonds rallied, and interest rates declined. Investors are now expecting the Fed to slow down their pace of tapering their bond purchases and are willing to keep interest rates low. The yield curve has continued to flatten and is now the flattest in eight months. One other concern is the high yield spreads, which are widening. This combination, were it to continue for a few more weeks, could put additional pressure on stocks. For bond investors, treasuries will likely also be a safe port in a storm. The decline in interest rates is likely to continue as commodity prices are showing more signs of rolling over as well. If demand for goods and services wanes in the coming months, prices (and inflation) are likely to moderate.

Friday’s decline was across the board and left few parts of the market unscathed. As mentioned above, the bond market is beginning to signal that stocks could be facing some headwinds in the coming months. Historically, when we see the difference in yields between high yield bonds and treasuries widen out, the stock market runs into trouble down the road. The lead time is anywhere between three months to over a year, so it makes sense to begin watching the markets a bit more closely. The final part of the “market signal” is the flatter yield curve. When the difference between the two- and ten-year yields on treasuries begins to narrow, it is a sign that financial conditions are beginning to tighten. Again, this is not a call for the end of the bull market but is worth keeping an eye on in the coming months. Whenever the markets decide they have had enough, there are likely to be a few hiding places. Better parts of the market will likely be those that have not really participated over the past year, like value and international holdings.

Whether the new variant is at the center of the markets concern or a Fed that may be making a policy mistake, the markets are beginning to pay attention. If things begin getting rougher, treasuries will be a good hiding place.

The opinions expressed in the Investment Newsletter are those of the author and are based upon information that is believed to be accurate and reliable but are opinions and do not constitute a guarantee of present or future financial market conditions.

2:30

SVP Paul Nolte Interviewed By TD Ameritrade 11.23.21

TD Ameritrade interviews Paul Nolte, SVP & Sr. Portfolio Manager

Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses how the U.S. Dollar has powered higher, and the possibility of seeing 95, 96ish, or even 100 on the Dollar Index in the next few weeks. He also talks about the idea that the markets are happy with the status quo of Fed Chair Powell and points out that gold (/GC) has been relatively rangebound in recent weeks.

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9:45

SVP Paul Nolte Interviewed on WGN Radio 11.23.21

Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses slipping Asia stock markets, the shift of U.S. markets toward technology, and more.

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7:13

SVP Paul Nolte Interviewed on WGN Radio 11.18.21

Kingsview SVP Paul Nolte discusses weekly jobless claims, stock market performance, public sentiment about inflation, and why retail sales are jumping in advance of Christmas.

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5:02