Senior VP Paul Nolte, a Senior VP talks about bitcoin, supply chain issues, and the struggle to get materials. He also discusses how workers currently have a little more leverage and negotiation power due to an employee shortage.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: You know, we focus on energy prices, what’s happening, because the last two big inflationary spirals we had dating back to the early 1970s and again in the late 1970s, they started with oil. Now, those of a certain age might recall those long gas lines in 1973, with the first big OPEC oil embargo that was under Richard Nixon, started with oil, extended to a whole lot of other stuff after that. Then a few years later, when OPEC was at it again. But we were hit much harder that second time because that quickly went from the pump to pumping up prices of almost everything else and then slowing things down as interest rates were spiked. And all of a sudden we were dealing with a slowing economy with higher prices, what they famously called stagflation. Could that be happening right now? Most experts say no. But again, the experts were saying that in both of those crises. Let’s go to Connell McShane. He’s following all of this, as is Scott Martin, at Kingsview Asset Management. You know, it’s interesting, Scott, when you look at the history of inflation and some of the more serious spikes we had, it did start with oil. It extended to other areas. Now, there were other foreign developments to keep an eye on. To be fair and to be sure. But again, oil at the center of it. What do you think?
SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, and a lot of foreign reliance back in those days, Neal, which I do remember because I read about them very extensively, didn’t have to live through them, thank goodness, at least for the most part. But, yeah, I know just how to throw that out there, just to remind you. But a lot of the foreign reliance back in those ages, let’s say, Neil, we’re relying on other foreign countries to provide that oil and that supply to us nowadays, at least depending on where the administration stands or let’s say what administration is in power there is less reliant on, say that that foreign relationship. The other issue, though, if you just look at production in general of things that are out there that we use every day, oil is such a big part of so many things that go into what we use and what we have on our daily lives. So when you have a spike in oil prices, like we’ve really seen frankly, over the last several months, it does still bring up that fright of some of those days in the 70s when oil prices went up markedly and that affected final prices of goods at the consumer level.
CAVUTO: You know, you think about it too Connell, we have much faster markets, you know, heavier markets that can change on a dime. A lot of times that. So the reaction can be swift and it can it can also be, you know, headaches. And I’m just wondering now, localized as this is on the energy front, some of the other pressures, for example, on food related items have eased a tad, not a lot, but at least a tad when you’re out on the hustings and you’re going around the country. How big a factor those higher gas and energy prices?
CONNELL MCSHANE: I think for now they are a big factor and one of the many areas that we see rising prices, I think that same book that Scott read about the 1970s, though, would say that when you look back on that time, you also realized that there were mistakes made on the policy front and we’d have to rely on the Federal Reserve under Jay Powell to make the same sort of mistakes that the I guess, the Arthur Burns Federal Reserve made back then. And Powell, as he’s been speaking in recent days, has been adamant that they’re they’re going to avoid having history repeat itself. I think the one thing right now and some of those numbers that we just flashed up a moment ago speak to this argument that I think is the reason why the so-called experts don’t see this as a huge problem yet. You you can really make a logical argument that this is a temporary spike we’re seeing in prices. I mean, think about you know, we’ve been traveling a lot for reporting on a number of stories. It’s tough to get a car right now, car rental. So there’s a shortage there. There’s a shortage, certainly, of workers that maybe it gets resolved later in the year. The shortage of computer chips that we reported on over and over. So some of the shortages that we’re seeing will likely resolve themselves over time. So the idea of the higher prices in the energy market spreading all over and leading to a long term, higher prices across the board does seem to be less likely. And I think that’s what Jay Powell is talking about. No, please write.
CAVUTO: You know, we’ve been also following Bitcoin, that’s a proxy if things get a little tenuous or a little dicey that people have fled to Bitcoin as they fled the gold. Mark Cuban comes along and says, Scott, that as things stand now, Bitcoin is better than gold. Now, he’s a pretty successful investor in his own right, so he’s not giving up on it, even with the whipsawing. What do you make of that?
MARTIN: If you’ve got Mylanta handy, yeah, bitcoin is OK. I mean, Bitcoin is crazy. I mean, look at some of the movements overnight, Neil and Bitcoin in the last few days, it’s been wild. We like gold better just because it’s less volatile. I believe it’s still a little bit more reliable from a price standpoint. But look, if you’re up for some of the volatility that that stands to to reckon in Bitcoin, great, you just got to buy on some of these dips. I mean, you really have to buy when it’s darkest before dawn in Bitcoin. But it is, to your point, a declaration as kind of gold is against government policy. In this case, all the printing that’s going on, all the spending that’s going on in D.C. tax policy coming down the road here, asset classes like Bitcoin. like Ethereum like gold, in our opinion, which we own. Those are asset classes to hold in your portfolio as a subsequent hedge to further erroneous government policy. That’s sure to come down the road here.
CAVUTO: You know, this battle, you know, back and forth with the Bitcoin bulls versus the bears, obviously a great deal is predicated on on having it available, having it readily available. And I guess, you know Connell, when China crack down on mining and even crack down on countries that that do mine it and explore for it, I was just thinking here, well, you might not be able to get your hands on anyway, but I would always think that that would help the underlying Bitcoin arena, all the crypto currencies, and that it would be a limited amount of supply that for which is a considerable amount of demand. I haven’t seen that part work out, though.
MCSHANE: It might, though, over the longer term, right? I mean, because the laws of supply and demand shouldn’t change, but it has been interesting to see what’s been going on in China. And that’s certainly, I think, part of the battle we’ll see back and forth, maybe not as reported as it should be kind of geopolitically between the United States and China over these these crypto miners. And that will probably continue. I mean, broadly speaking and Scott’s the the investment guru among us, I don’t even attempt to play one on TV. But having the idea of having at least part of your portfolio in some alternative investments doesn’t seem so crazy, depending on what your risk appetite is. And, you know, you can make a decent return and in Bitcoin is not going away. So the idea of having some portion of your portfolio there as opposed to all of it or taking huge chances still doesn’t seem to be too crazy to me, especially if I end up being right on that supply demand front over the long term.
CAVUTO: I like to put all my kids education money on the line with Bitcoin just for the hell of it. All right, this works out, kids. It’s going to be great if it doesn’t. Well, your mom and I are going to have a party. But guys, don’t go away too far. I want to touch on you with what’s happening right now globally.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses California’s rent bailout, parent’s increased financial contributions, and recent Bitcoin developments.
Program: Fox Business Tonight
Station: Fox Business News
BRIAN BRENBERG: Well, a handout from a Democratic state Governor Gavin Newsom announcing the state will pay off all past due rent left unpaid during the pandemic. The news coming just days before the state and federal moratorium on evictions is set to expire. Here now, Long-suffering Vikings fan Scott Martin of Kingsview Asset Wealth Management. He’s also a Fox business contributor. Scott, so good to see you. Funny how when there’s a recall election in California, the governor’s got a ton of money to pay off everyone’s rent. What do you make of this thing?
SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, the governor wants to help, right? We don’t want to buy votes or anything or sway a voter that may be on the fence as far as recalling old Gavin Newsom. But we actually want to try to help here. Here’s the interesting thing to me is a couple of fold on this, Brian. The first is this is a huge program, by the way, and we’re talking about billions and billions of dollars. I mean, by some counts, Five Point 2B – as far as this bailout. And also the fact, too, that you have a lot of these folks that have not paid their rent in many, many months. In fact, you go all the way back to early 2020. And so you’ve got a lot of folks that as far as landlords, you need to make hole here and a lot of folks still that even so with, say, 10 million jobs open in the country and a lot of those in California available for the taking, a lot of these folks are still saying they can’t find work and that’s why they can’t pay the rent. So it’s just an interesting take to say, hey, here’s the money we’re going to pay off, make you your hole, wipe the slate clean, but you still can’t find a job. You can’t go out and make the money, even though, as we know, with the economy reopening, things are out there for the taking.
BRENBERG: You can’t square that. You just can’t square it. And it’s a lot of money. As you said. We’re talking about a B behind that five. I got to ask you about this. One kid’s costing parents more financially, in fact. Thirty one percent of parents say they think they’re supporting their children more now than they did before covid-19. That’s according to a new study from Bank of America. Scott, you throwing more money at your kids these days? What’s going on with this?
MARTIN: I am. I mean, my kids are basically stealing money out of my wallet these days, and they’re seven and 10. So, I mean, they should be out working and they should be living on their own by now. Right. So it’s really happening. I mean, in all walks of life and all ages, really. I mean, you talk to a lot of folks out there and whether they have kids in their 20s, kids obviously in their teen years or kids in their 30s, as some of the studies have shown, a lot of kids are still home or at some point or some leisure getting some of that help from from mom and dad. So this has become obviously something that was going on prior to the coronavirus outbreak, but one that has gotten worse as many of those kids stayed home, didn’t get work, came home from school and so forth. And they’re just basically continuing in that mode.
BRENBERG: All right, Scott, the requisite question of the day on Bitcoin, plunging below 30 K, bouncing back just a little bit really quickly. How do you read it, especially with this whole issue of China ramping up pressure?
MARTIN: Yeah, there’s going to be a lot of pressure from China. There’s pressure probably coming from the US, Brian. Just regulators in general want to get their hands on this thing, at least get their hands around it. When you ever see a pullback in something like this, just remember, it’s very volatile. I mean, Bitcoin was up close to sixty thousand just a couple of months ago. Ethereum also was 50 percent or so higher than it is today, just a couple of months ago. So these are areas when, if you like the currency, the cryptocurrency, if you like it as an asset class, you’ve got to hold your nose and buy some of these dips because you may not get many more of them.
BRENBERG: Scott, you can put your money in crypto or you can put it in a great suit and tie combination like you’re bringing to us today. It’s always
MARTIN: It’s the best Viking colors I got man.
BRENBERG: You got it. You got it. You nailed it. Scott Martin, as always, thank you, sir. So good to see you.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the economic reopening, what’s expected over the next two quarters, and preparing to reallocate portfolios.
Station: Fox Business News
LISA KENNEDY: Meanwhile, retail sales in March jumped by buying stuff nine point eight percent and the bar and restaurant industry saw a wonderful thirteen point four percent surge in sales. Keep going to your local watering holes keep tipping, keep sipping. But what does this mean for you and how do you make sure the growth continues so you can get — here with me now, Kingsviews Wealth Management, Chief Investment Officer and Fox News Contributor. Scotty Martin, naughty Scotty with the hotty body – here to tell you how to party. So, Scott, this is all great news.
SCOTT MARTIN: Reminds me of 7th grade all over again. By the way, thank you for calling me. Thank you for calling me.
KENNEDY: I have the emotional maturity of the seventh grader, so that is perfect. So you’ve got low unemployment, you’ve got housing starts going up and up and up. You say the stock market is going it’s set to keep roaring for another two quarters. Where is the bad news? This that sounds pretty great.
SCOTT MARTIN: It sounds too good to be true, almost, doesn’t it? I believe it’s going to be one of these situations, Kennedy, where everything keeps coming in better and better. We see earnings getting better. We see more government spending, people going back to work, potentially if the government’s not paying them not to work, of course. And everything gets really good until we get back to the actual full reopening. And then it’s kind of like, all right, now what do we do? So that’s really the worry, is that for the next couple of quarters, I think we’re OK, which if you’re playing at home, I think is about 180 days, depending on the quarter. The two of them added together 90 days each. That’s quick math without a calculator. Just a cap here in hand. But the reality is, once that day comes, when the full opening happens or re-happens , I guess, as it did once upon a time, you have to be ready to reallocate your portfolio.
KENNEDY: So where should I reallocated – bitcoin? I love crypto.
MARTIN: Bitcoin bars and restaurants, as you mentioned earlier, maybe grocery stores, gas stations, because gas prices, by the way, are out of control. But, yeah, you know, Bitcoin is an interesting call and sort of things like Gold. Those are alternative kind of assets, Kennedy, things like currencies as well that are rallying because of all the government spending and because interest rates are going up. So, yes, I think the traditional portfolio I know this is like super exciting to everybody at home, the traditional stocks and bonds. It is. That’s true. We want to make money. So, yes, Bitcoin and things like Gold, I believe, are good assets to have when this reopening does happen.
KENNEDY: That is so hot, you know, just the idea of walking around with a bunch of gold coins jangling in your pantaloons. And we we’re definitely set up for something. I hope it’s not bubbles. I hope it’s prosperity. And I hope people have the sense that the pandemic is coming to an end and they keep spending and supporting each other because that is what lifts this beautiful free market economy, naughty Scotty Martin, thank you so much.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses Chipolte’s Bitcoin promotion and the rise of alternative currency.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: Now that Chipotle is looking to give away up to a hundred thousand bucks in Bitcoin, which would be what not even, you know, to two of the coins. Right at the rate it’s going, nevertheless is getting enormous attention DR Barton is back with us – Woodshaw Financial Group principal there, Scott Martin, Kingview Asset Management CIO, Fox News contributor. Well, this is a little different. I mean, Chipotle does not join the normal crowd that we’ve seen of late, including Goldman kicking around the idea and Tesla with this sort of thing. I’m not quite sure what this means, though, for Chipotle. It’s an added boost, I guess, to get people in. But what do you make of it?
SCOTT MARTIN: Neil I love it. Why am I always the last one to know on Brito’s, though, that’s the question. I mean, look, Brito’s Taco’s, I love them all. Usually when Goldman gets involved in something like this, the funs over. But ironically, in this case, I think the fun just starting, you mentioned all the other companies that are talking about Bitcoin, even the PayPal’s, the Squares, the Visas, the MasterCard. So, what it means for Chipotle is they’re getting on that bandwagon to kind of catch that rise in the, let’s say, alternative currency. And it speaks to the fact that, you know, a lot of portfolio managers like ourselves, Neil, have bought gold in the past to hedge against, say, fixed income volatility or equity. Volatility in Bitcoin is becoming a real asset class for portfolios as far as choice.
CAVUTO: You know, for the time being, DR, they’re not saying you can buy your burritos with Bitcoin that might be coming down the pike. I know Tesla is offering that with the one and a half billion that a lot of us got, you know, bought of currency that buyers could do so. But where do you see this going?
DR BARTON: Well, I think it’s just really smart marketing, Neil, kind of pure and simple, if you look up if you look up Chipotle online, you’re going to find, you know, maybe 50 million hits, 50 million hits in Google. If you look up Bitcoin, you’re going to find six hundred and eighty-eight million. It is very hot. They want their name associated with something hot where they don’t have to pay royalties to the NFL or the NBA or someone like that to have a marketing campaign. So, they have an app that’s called Bitcoin or a burrito’s or Bitcoin. You play a game on there to see if you win some of the Bitcoin fractional Bitcoin or can win a burrito. And that’s and that’s it. So, it’s a really kind of interesting marketing ploy. I don’t think it has any legs in terms of Bitcoin being accepted at Chipotle any time soon.
CAVUTO: I’d probably still go for the burrito, but Scott, looking at this, bitcoin is serious now, isn’t it? It’s gone from now being, you know, sort of shunned, sort of like an odd investment to one being embraced by a lot of Main Street players. What do you make of that?
MARTIN: Bitcoin was a t shirt a few years ago of one which I bought, in fact, that I’m happy to wear out because people what’s so funny about that is like I mean, perfect example of the T-shirt. It’s an orange T-shirt has the Bitcoin symbol on it. Three or four years ago, Neil, nobody would stop and ask about it, but now they do. And it’s probably because they see me on the shows all the time. Right. But the reality is, and they watch Fox and everything like everybody else. But the reality is people want to talk about it and feel like they’re very interested in it. So, the fact that to the point where that’s at Chipotle or be able to use it on a Visa card or something like that, that’s making it part of society and part of society to come, I think.
CAVUTO: All right, gentlemen. Food for thought. See what I did there? Food for. OK, fine. It’s the best I could do on a whim. All right.
SVP and Portfolio Manager Paul Nolte discusses his latest market outlook. He weighs in on Bitcoin, and why he’s more interested in exploring the companies that may benefit from cryptocurrencies and blockchain than Bitcoin itself.
SVP and Portfolio Manager Paul Nolte discusses his latest market outlook. He also talks about why he’s more interested in exploring companies that may benefit from cryptocurrencies and blockchain, than in Bitcoin itself.