Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the psychology and emotion involved in investing, and trusting the system. He also talks about Amazon and Netflix, and expectations for Q4.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: So we know historically October, the most volatile month for the market, but also the month that sees that September weakness morph into a launching pad for a year end rally. And it looks like that may be happening this week. I want to bring in the market bros Scott, Martin, Rob Luna and before we even talk about that, both of you guys are very passionate about getting people into the stock market. In fact, Rob, I was reading your website today and something struck me quote. My mission is to mentor anyone who is willing to build and put in the hard work to secure their own business, invest in their future, for their future. You know, I think that’s the biggest hurdle, right? People now you kind of rely on social media. You get these tips. We call them water cooler tips. So it’s easy to find stock ideas, but really, you got to put a little bit more elbow grease in there. Isn’t that true?
ROB LUNA: Yeah, I mean, that’s exactly it, Charles. And especially when you look at our community being a Cuban-American yourself, African-American, the numbers are horrible. Charles Less than 10 percent of Latinos are invested in the market. 13 percent of African-Americans in my academy minorities represent over 75 percent. I’m really proud of that. We need to start educating these people. There’s a lot of wealth that’s being built and created in this market. But people need to get in, but they need to spend the time to do it the right way. It’s not on chat boards, it’s not reading news clips. It’s really understanding how to analyze, manage risk and invest in good long term quality companies.
CHARLES PAYNE: And of course, Scott, we’ve had this record amount of money pour into this market. So these new investors are getting in there. And this is one of the biggest tests the last few weeks for them. What is the key thing? Maybe they should take away from it that they should understand?
SCOTT MARTIN: I like the term hard work Charles and Rob has been great at that mantra. His whole career and the hard work for me working with clients too is the emotional aspect. I mean, you talk about the new investors. Charles, Rob talks about some of the minorities that need to trust the system, which you know, it’s hard number one. But number two, think about your emotions of when you invest. You know, people too many times compare their selves themselves to other investors. They compare themselves to that, you know, half brother, half sister, that half cousin, whoever it is that has that great idea, that investment in oil or cannabis that went crazy. You’ve got to understand your own psychology when you’re going into investing to know what you expect out of it, what you can take both on the upside and downside and how you’re going to deal with it.
PAYNE: I’ve got to ask you guys about earnings season. Let’s go to next week because we talked a lot about this week Squid Games, the hottest thing in the world. Will that make Netflix a buy before the earnings? Scott, would you be in this stock?
MARTIN: We already own it, man, and I got chastised and raked over the coals in May when we took it out of our managed stock portfolios in favour of Amazon. So we took out Amazon, which was taboo to ever sell and bought Netflix. Let’s look at the chart. That was actually a pretty good move. You know what’s funny, too? I don’t like Squid Games. I know I’m getting a ton of hate mail about it. I don’t think it’s that good. But I think a lot of their other content is geared. Charles. Sub numbers should look pretty good this past quarter. And so I like Netflix here going forward, especially into Q4.
PAYNE: Rob, are you? Are you? Would you be a buyer or owner? And if not, would it be like right now, Rob, what’s a fresh idea since we spoke last?
LUNA: Yeah, I mean, I think Scott’s a better stock picker than he is media critic. I think that’s a great game, a great show. I’ve been binge watching it for the last week. You know, I think you’ll look the fangs reporting next week. All of these companies are good long term holds, not trading around them. What I wanted to bring, though I knew it was coming up against some heat with the market bros I wanted to bring a fresh idea. That idea today is simple. Tigr, tigr, it’s up. Fintech. Look, there’s some controversy surrounding this. It’s a Chinese based company. A lot of online brokerage fintech, right? Take a look at this, though a big move into the US stocks down 30 percent in the last five years.
PAYNE: Take a look. I’ve got an admission. I’m in it with my subscribers and we are getting shellacked, so I’m so happy someone else is getting in there. And by the way, another admission I want you, Scott. I watched half an episode of Squid Games. Let’s say people may love it. I’m going to give it another shot over the weekend. And I do like Netflix. Guys have a great weekend.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses gold’s recent performance, plus the rise of cryptocurrency and its potential volatility.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: So all the record books say that it was the month of October, twenty twenty one when the Crown was officially passed to bitcoin and crypto from gold and silver. Now, according to J.P. Morgan, there right now three main drivers for bitcoin’s remarkable October to remember. So I want to get the read from Scott Martin and Meltem Demirors and Scott. Let me go to you, my man, because apparently institutions now see bitcoin as a better inflation hedge than gold. You’ve championed gold on this show for a long time. Is it time to throw in the towel?
SCOTT MARTIN: I have Charles, and I’m holding back tears doing this, but I’m good at doing that, so I won’t cry. I promised myself I would cry. We sold the gold today. I can’t believe it, and that was based on several factors, not because of what some of these institutions are doing, because those are not the guys to follow. In my opinion, as an independent adviser and one that manages ETFs and such. But the reality is this Charles, because of some recent data and certainly the performance of our friend Jld and some of the other ETFs that are out there in the gold space, it just hasn’t been there. As far as the non correlation in some of the upside capture. So while I don’t think that answer is as is the bitcoins or the theorems or the Solana’s, the reality is gold is just not handling itself very well as that alternative asset space in our portfolios right now. So I just think gold is not the thing to hold right now. I don’t think some of the bitcoin stuff is right, either, if that’s what you’re looking to replace it with.
PAYNE: OK, so Milton, Meltem, in the meantime, institutional investors are rushing in like gangbusters venture capitalists. I read where Mark Andresen shopped. The funding has gone through the roof from hundreds of millions to billions. So at least are the credibility questions over right now. Do you feel like as someone who’s championed this space, you took a lot of slings and arrows from these famous international types that you can finally say, OK, don’t question that credibility anymore?
MELTEM DEMIRORIS: Yeah, look, Scott, I’ll take the W all day. I’m sorry, but I’ll take the W. I think we are definitely at the point one percent of global aum across all asset classes is now in crypto. Of that, 50 percent is bitcoin and 50 percent is everything else. Crypto is here. 20 percent of Americans own bitcoin. This is no longer a fringe asset class. This is a diverse asset category that has publicly listed equities, including my company CoinShares. We have ETFs with exposure to equity. We’ve ETPs with exposure to digital assets themselves. We have the coin, so we have venture funds, we have SPACs. It is a growing and really robust category and I’m really excited about the opportunity ahead. We see a lot of opportunity for growth. And as we like to say in the industry, Q4 is the start of the madness. We’re calling it up tober, by the way, Charles. So this is not October, it’s uOtober.
SCOTT MARTIN: Just be ready for the volatility.
DEMIRORS: Hey, that’s the price of opportunity- price of opportunities, the volatility,
MARTIN: But different from alternatives of yesteryear, in my opinion, but no problem.
PAYNE: All right, so, so real quick, then I’m going to come back to you, Scott, but I do want to squeeze in with Meltem. The NFT is worthy. They stand there also having a pretty strong month there up Tobar as well.
DEMIRORS: Yes. I mean, yeah, I’ll talk about NFT’s, so yeah. Look, I think, you know, people love buying luxury goods. LVMH with a $400 billion company and they produce artificial scarcity, right? People buy handbags, people buy expensive cars, watches and have to use our digital flex right. For people like me, I spend all of my time on my laptop. I don’t need Chanel bags. I need digital flex. And so I think NFT is in many ways are filling this interesting new niche as we enter the so-called metaverse as we live increasingly online. We need different ways to sort of flex online. Right now, NFTs are very much focused on art and sort of displaying our unique clothes. We’re also calling them IS or profile photo NFTs, but are also seeing games using NFTs, luxury brands using NFTs. And I think it’s still a really early space, but want again where there’s tremendous growth for multiple different types of opportunities, whether it’s new brands, legacy brands, lot of space.
PAYNE: Let me only go. Got 30 seconds. I’m going to give Scott the last word, Scott. She mentioned the metaverse. You know, flossing on the metaverse. It sounds like you and me are going to be stuck outside the metaverse fishing. I mean, you’re going to jump at any of that stuff. Maybe some of these equity is riot, MHRA, Coinbase. Anyways, you’re going to get exposure to this space.
MARTIN: Yeah, we have some clients that have some of the riot, some of the DLC blockchain, and I think those are those are good if that’s the exposure you want. I also agree with Meltem, though you need exposure to the coins through Coinbase. You can actually trade the exact coins. And one quick point on the NFT, you can’t bring it in in stores and steal them, Gucci and all those. At least they’re unpreventable that way.
PAYNE: We got to leave it there. I’m handing it over to Lauren Simonetti Lauren to see.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses wage inflation, the choices companies are facing, and the push toward green energy.
Program: Fox Business Tonight
Station: Fox Business News
BRIAN BRENBERG: Inflation burning a hole in Americans wallets, more companies raising prices on consumers. You know, stuff like burritos, washing machines, chips, soda pop, all increasing in cost here now. Scott Martin of Kingsview Wealth Management, a big soda pop drinker, he’s also a Fox Business contributor. Scott, great to see you, my friend. Look, I want to go to this data. This has been the story all along. We’ve heard, Hey, don’t worry. The labor shortages aren’t going to get passed on to consumers. Don’t worry, the supply chain problem is not going to get passed on to consumers. Scott consumers are getting nailed.
SCOTT MARTIN: Yes, and don’t worry, the government knows best. They know what to give the American people so that they go back to work eventually, which they’re not doing, and I think that’s one of the big issues, Brian, is that a lot of the folks that are going back to work, God bless them, are requiring more pay because the government subsidize them so well over the course of them not being employed. That is one thing that’s showing up big. I think that’s one of the risks here is looking at the wage inflation numbers that we’re starting to see now that the job market is starting to at least act more normally so that companies have one or two choices, either they pay their workers more and have less profit or in the case of workers that come in and earn more wage, they have to raise prices. And so the effect is going to be a little bit detrimental to the economy, especially as we come out of this.
BRENBERG: Yeah, you get that spiraling effect. Look, I got a bigger paycheck. That’s great. I go to the store. I used to spend seventy dollars a week on grocery now. Now I’m spending one hundred and twenty dollars. I’m sitting there last night talking to my wife over dinner, and she’s explaining to me how this meal costs like 30 percent more than it did six months ago. Scott, the average family’s paying one hundred and seventy five dollars more a month in prices. Because of this, this economy cannot thrive on that kind of inflation.
MARTIN: I agree, and I can’t thrive either, because I can’t even get my wife to have dinner with me, so so kudos to you on that, let alone how much it cost no matter the cost. The funny thing to Brian is we’re seeing this inflation kind of pervasive in every area. I mean, you look at food prices, you look at cost of transport things, you look at gasoline, all these things that are out there now that are really a shock to this system. And what’s funny to me, though, the reason it feels so bad is because we did have it pretty darn good for the last eight years or even the last 10 coming out of the financial crisis. I mean, we’re in basically a deflation or lets say and non-inflationary environment. So when prices do start to go up as they are now because of the wages, because of the fact that we have a scarcity of materials, it feels a little bit worse than maybe it normally would have.
BRENBERG: We had we had basically no inflation, we had wages going up. We had abundant jobs. That was good. But Scott, take this all the way back. This is really, to me, a story of oil and energy. Dagen made the point earlier day one. Keystone Pipeline You look at every issue affecting the economy. You can trace it back to what’s happening with energy.
MARTIN: You sure can, and you can trace it back to government policy on green energy and the fact that, you know, AOC and the crew all the way up to Biden have totally made this huge push towards green energy, which is very expensive and not part of our complete fabric. So you’re talking about the reliance on less fossil fuels and now this push towards green energy, which frankly, is just costing the country too much. And you’re right, it’s spreading across everywhere, except my friend is, you know, very well and Kirk Cousins passing stats. I mean, we want real inflation. Let’s get his numbers up.
BRENBERG: Only place I want to see inflation right now is the point that the Vikings put on the board and they cannot get it done. But Scott, look, this is we talk about the debt ceiling. You talk about spending, Scott, you talk about inflation. We have got the wrong prescription. The Vikings got the wrong prescription for what’s going on. We’ve got the wrong prescription for this economy. You always have the right prescription. Scott Martin, thank you for being with
MARTIN: The Doctors in here, buddy.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses food inflation, employment and whether the job market may be normalizing.
Program: Your World with Cavuto
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: Forget about not even born, I mean, you don’t he doesn’t even remember a bear market, that’s next guy. Scott Martin Fox Business Contributor But again, an uncanny read of these markets for a young whippersnapper, Scott. You know, they’re mentioning the inflation word again and they’re saying, you know, be prepared for it sticking around a while. Are you in that camp?
SCOTT MARTIN: In parts of that camp, Neil, I think the gasoline concerns are definitely there and going to stay there, the food and some of the materials, I’m not so sure now. It’s funny the things that Lydia was talking about, Neil. It’s kind of things that we should probably be eating less of anyway. So maybe the inflation is doing a favor for us. I mean, personal story. I may or may not have brought some Golden Oreos with me to the studio today. You never know. The point is, you go to the store now, man used to be able to buy those Golden Oreos in the pack, and they had about sixty in them, for about you know, five bucks or something. Now you’re down to about 40 for a higher price. We probably don’t need to be eating 60 of those things anyway in a setting. So for my sake, some of the food inflation might actually maybe force us to make some healthier choices. Oh my gosh.
CAVUTO: Well, I don’t don’t go nuts here, but I don’t relate to this because, you know, I haven’t noticed the same run-up in prices in arugula, but you could be right. Yeah. But you know, I’m wondering because when inflation takes hold, it has a devil of the time sort of easing back. And we saw that from the 70s experience. Not that I think that that is necessarily the case now. But what do you look for that would at least get you thinking maybe this is more of a problem than I thought?
MARTIN: I think the secret Neil lies in the job market. I think it basically pans itself out in wage inflation because our good buddy, Milton Friedman, who yes, I’ve read about didn’t actually get a chance to meet him, which was the old talk of saying, you know, inflation is basically a monetary phenomenon. It’s too much money chasing too few of goods. We definitely have to feel good. I mean that that’s evident everywhere around the country today. But the wage thing that too much money chasing those goods may or may not be really the case here. So I think until that pans out to where we have both sides of those things fighting it out, I think that’s why I still think Jay Powell has it right. I think a lot of this stuff is transitory. It’s probably lasting a little bit longer than a lot of folks predicted. But we’re going to start to see we’ve got a jobs number tomorrow. I’m going to start to see those wage numbers, I believe calmed down as the job market maybe normalizes here.
CAVUTO: All right. We’ll see what happens. Scott Martin, great catching up with you and great relying on the expertise these last few years here, even though you weren’t alive when we started. But it’s good. Good that you’re alive right now.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses gas prices, hyperinflation and making sure the labor force comes back online.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: So should you be worried about this, as we were indicating here there already, gas lines forming and large swaths of Great Britain? It’s hard to get the gas out because it’s very difficult to get it shipped to stations right now because of the supply, you know, shortage that we’re dealing with. So those gas lines that have been becoming a predominant scene right now in Great Britain, could they come back here for those of a certain age? You remember the early 70s in the late 70s when that was quite common? Are we revisiting the past even though Scott Martin wasn’t even alive? I suspect he reads history books. So. Scott, what do you think? Are we looking at the same?
SCOTT MARTIN: I do I did a deep study, Neil. I was born in the gas prices crisis, so let’s say that that’s indicative enough. So I don’t believe so because the infrastructure and the transportation structures here in the US are much better, let’s just say, than what we’re seeing in Great Britain so far. So I think we’ll be OK. Aside from maybe a pipeline attack or something that remember just a recent note. So I believe that things are going to be relatively OK. But that doesn’t isolate us, Neil, from the fact that you mentioned earlier with Grady about how some of the targets on crude prices now have moved up to 90. Our target personally at Kingsview is about $100 a barrel within the next six to eight months because of demand coming back online and because of supply supply constraints. So there are realistic impacts to the fact that we are going to see higher order, which is also not only hurting the consumer, but think Neil, about the producers and some of the companies who factor in these oil prices. So much of their production, their transportation of goods and services that’s going to tick up the prices and costs for them as well.
CAVUTO: You know what’s weird about it, though, if you think about the Scott, normally supply and demand and more demand for existing supply is a good indication for an economy that things are beginning to fire up post-pandemic and all the Delta variant issues notwithstanding, we’re humming again. Or is there something more going on that we have to worry? There’s such a thing as humming and then all of a sudden, you know, things get get out of hand with that and inflation gets out of hand. And you have the Jerome Powell, who has long been saying all of this is transitory, acknowledging Guess it’s not. What do you think?
MARTIN: Yes. And then the music stops and I agree with you, there’s a certain inflation that’s good. And frankly, Neil, that we’ve seen over the course of many years back to my very deep studies of these matters where as long as inflation is not hyper, let’s say it is transitory that shows up in stock prices like that is OK. When inflation is unmanageable and just crazy, hyperinflation is, as a word, is used in economics. That’s not so great. What I do believe is different about this time around is that typically inflation is too much money chasing too few of goods. Again, definitions I’ve read about in the history books today, though, we have sort of a lot of money chasing way too few of goods, and that goes back to the things you talked about with Grady throughout the show today about some of these supply concerns. We have, yes. And the fact that we don’t have the labor to support the needs that we have to kind of facilitate the delivery of those goods and services. So we need to rectify that. And that’s one big concern that we have at Kingsview you now and how we’re managing money for our clients is that making sure that that labor force comes back online because now we have, according to latest JOLTS survey Neil, about 10 million jobs that are available and ready to be taken by everyday Americans that are not being filled. And so we need to get that production back online so that we can facilitate or at least alleviate some of those supply issues and some of the delivery issues that we’re seeing around the world.
CAVUTO: Now, all of that information, to your point, is real. Next time we’re together, I’ll tell you about my wife and I had our first mortgage with 13 and a half percent, but we don’t have time right now, but I want a deal. It’s a great story. You probably didn’t hear it. You know, under one hundred times before. Scott, great catching up with you, my young lass.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses recent market pullbacks, how 2021 compares to 2008, and how China’s actions affect the market.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: Let’s go to Scott Martin, a guy who had his tender years when it comes to looking at markets because he knows enough, usually September young as he is to know it’s a problematic month so far, it continues that theme. What do you make of what’s going on?
SCOTT MARTIN: Yes, as young as I am, Neil, I do know my months of the year, so that’s very helpful when we look at old Mr or Mrs. You know, gender neutral stock market here these days. That’s the popular thing to say, I guess, is that there is seasonality involved in markets. Know what’s funny about statistics. I being one a fan of statistics, Neil and how we run our portfolios at Kingsview and in some of our ETFs, you can manipulate statistics. Some people say you can beat them to death. You can beat them to tell you what you want them to do. But the reality is you can change them around to say, Hey, if you take out a month like the terrible attacks of September 11th, if you take out the crash of October eighty seven, if you take out some of the things that are going on with the Gulf War volatility in the markets and 94 the months, don’t look that bad. But what I do like about looking at things maybe more in a concurrent basis today is that there was a little bit of maybe too much optimism there going into the fall here that basically, I guess at least tribulation itself into. Now what we’re seeing in the markets as far as some pullback, some reconciliation, some recognizing that markets didn’t need to pullback, some to get to a level to where buyers were going to come back in.
CAVUTO: Do you worry about what’s happening in China and that it could spread here? I know it’s unique to China. Three hundred billion dollars, you know, vulnerable assets right now. Let’s say it defaults on this payment due Thursday that it could have reverberations here. I tried mightily and you probably have as well to look at any U.S. exposure here and outside of a few, you know, you know, Western bond funds like those from BlackRock and PIMCO, Pacific Investment Management and maybe Ashmore Group. I don’t see that wide exposure, but maybe to the markets if this thing went belly up. It
doesn’t matter. It would have it cascading or a domino effect. What do you what do you think?
MARTIN: It would, and we’re kind of lucky in the fact that China has shut out a lot of our banks from doing so much business over there, especially of late, so the exposure isn’t as bad as it probably could be. Another thing that’s funny about the exposure with China and kind of that systematic contagion effect, Neil, that we saw around the financial crisis is folks and mainly on another network, thank goodness, have been saying that this is like 2008 again, not even close. It’s a lot more isolated. The Chinese government has a history of kind of kind of manipulating and taking care of these companies within their country in weird ways with a lot of force and control. So I do think they’re going to come in and do something to kind of save the bacon here, so to speak, even though I’m trying to cut out bacon off my diet because the reality is that the damage that something like this, it’s hard to do the reality, the damage of this that would expand into the markets. Just as far as general unease, it’s probably not worth the lesson. Let’s say that the People’s Republic of China gets even what you want to call them, want to give the rest of the market or their own market. I don’t think, although President Xi, to your point about where China is, my goodness, man. I mean, these days, whenever he’s speaking, whenever they’re putting out what they’re doing with some of the technology companies over there and certainly some of the things in Hong Kong, it’s very worrisome. What they’re doing on may be more of a grand basis of how they’re handling a lot of the business matters and people in their country.
CAVUTO: Yeah, and I think telling is the fact that China doesn’t care if it hurts them and if it boomerangs on them, that’s pretty bold if you think about it because they’re clearly taking it on the chin as a result of all of this. They don’t give a damn. And that worries me too.
MARTIN: And it worries the markets, certainly. But I think overall, the reality is that these buying opportunities that do occur like days like yesterday, when it looks like the market was going to be down over a thousand points in the Dow today we bounce so far and then everybody’s like, Well, just sell this. Take these opportunities to layer in the positions that you like because longer term, this too shall pass just like the financial crisis did and just like the COVID freak out from 2020 did.
CAVUTO: Yeah, I think Gilda Radner, the late great comedian out of it, it’s always something. Because you’re too young.
MARTIN: Right? I’m a big Gene Wilder fan, something there with the amount.
CAVUTO: Yes, exactly. OK, thank you very much.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the amount of options in the market, using pullbacks to fortify positions, and the upward sloping yield curve in financials.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: Meanwhile, there’s an icon of dichotomy here between plunging investor confidence in amount of cash that’s gushing into the stock market. Individual bearishness that’s plunging. And of course, down at twenty 22 percent bullishness, rather the fear gauge moving closer toward extreme fear. So how can we come to grips when we’re personally growing fearful, but you still want to stay in this market? Believe me, I know it’s not easy. So let’s bring in our market experts Allan Boomer, Scott Martin and Mike Lee. You know, one of the reasons I’ve been bullish beyond the fundamentals is all the cash on the sidelines. Global investors took sixty two billion out of money markets. They put fifty one billion into stocks, forty six billion of that into US equities. So Mike, is this a reason you think for people to remain bullish?
MICHAEL LEE: Absolutely, Charles, I think any debate should be brought. I think the amount of cash on the sidelines is staggering. You have four and a half trillion dollars in money markets. You have over 700 billion dollars of buybacks amounts. And just keep in mind, OK, when that Fear Greed Index is up in the 80s and 90s, that’s what you want to sell when it gets down here. This is where you want to buy, and now it’s easier for me to say it than to do it. But that that historically proves the way it is when everyone’s calling for a correction. That’s where you want to be a buyer.
PAYNE: You know, Alan, you were a VP at Goldman Sachs and then you started your own firm in 2013 wasn’t a really great time, right? Most people hated Wall Street back then. So what’s the secret for you when you get investors to remain calm invested, particularly when they become fearful or distrustful?
ALLAN BOMMER: I hate to say it, Charles, but you got to tell them to turn the TV off, sometimes really focus on. Focus on the long term, you know, why are you investing in the first place? Is it because you want to know every minute, maximize your wealth or is it to really maximize your wealth over time? What are the things that you’re looking to achieve? Like, do you want to retire one day or leave money for your kids? Like days like today, weeks like these last few weeks aren’t really going to matter in the long run. You’ve got to keep folks focused on the big picture, right?
PAYNE: Scott, you know the amount of options. I want to get back to this old triple quadruple witching thing, the amount of options in this market. It’s got a lot of people concerned right there saying it’s really starting to skew underlying share prices. Also, it’s making people less respectful of risk. What are your thoughts about that?
SCOTT MARTIN: It’s wild, Charles. It’s definitely kicking up volume. I think it’s an opportunity like the guys have already said. I mean, any kind of drawdowns that we see because of options expiration or people say, repurposing or recalibrating their portfolios. If you’re getting pullbacks in names that you like, say, like airlines or restaurants, anything tied to the consumer, you’ve got to use those pullbacks or there’s triple which are not to buy in and fortify your positions.
PAYNE: So then let’s talk about resolve, market resolve again, for the most part, has been with us since 2009 on full display march of last year. This year, the S&P 500 has been holding that 50 day moving average like a champ, not just holding bouncing off it like a trampoline. So, so, Mike, you know, you’ve expressed a tremendous amount of bullishness. What happens if the 50 day fails and we start to accelerate to the downside?
LEE: Yeah, look, I don’t I don’t see any sort of acceleration from that, and again, I would be I would be a buyer on an I’d start start selling fixed income or finding other assets in other places to put more money to work. There’s so much cash on the sidelines, combined with the fact that while the economy, while the rate of change may be slowing, we’re an expanding economy. This is a bull market these last four years, not months. Markets don’t sell off because of valuation. There needs to be a catalyst for there to be a meaningful correction. And I’d say the more selling we get, the less likely the Fed is to be active, which in my mind is the only threat to the market at this point.
PAYNE: I do believe the Fed is hostage to the stock market, I think they’ve created a monster they will not be able to control other than keeping it going. Hey, let’s switch gears. We’ve been talking about stocks, but don’t look now. But that 10 year yield is really starting to build some momentum to the upside is right on the cusp of a big resistance point. Now, Scott, I know you like the financials. You talked about them. Obviously, they should do well as these interest rates are going up. Is this one of the areas to be in if we start to really break out?
MARTIN: I think so. Charles and we own JP Morgan and Citi. We have for about a year now, we like the upward sloping yield curve, as you pointed out. Also, the fundamentals on those two stocks are very good. So if you’re looking to expand your portfolio, looking at financials, I think those are the two top names. But obviously you can’t probably go wrong too much with Wells Fargo, given some of the pressure it’s had recently. But financials going forward here are going to take advantage of that upward sloping yield curve as the banks benefit from net interest margin expansion.
PAYNE: And, of course, if Elizabeth Warren gets her way, the by Wells Fargo, you end up with two companies for the price of one. Hey, Allan, at one point, were these higher yields change the way you’re investing right now?
BOOMER: Great question. I mean, I also like the banks, I like the regional banks as well as kind of the megacap banks, you know, you talk about JPMorgan. They. Made a lot of really powerful portfolio of businesses inside of JPMorgan like Citizens Financial, but you know, rates are going higher. I don’t think they’re going meaningfully higher. Like I predict in the next year, you’ll probably see a 10 year around 175. Like, that’s not enough to really, you know, turn us away from anything, you know, rates. I think rates will go higher. It’ll be a grind higher.
PAYNE: That’s like predicting the Knicks. That’s the playoffs, so I’m with you on that. OK. Let’s move on to gold because I got to bring this up. We talked about inflows. Well, guess what? Thirty seven million dollars winning the gold. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s the most in five weeks. And getting it back to you for a long time, you’ve been telling us you got to be in gold. But is it time to throw in the towel in the sense that this is your best hedge against inflation?
MARTIN: No, not yet, Charles. I mean, we like gold and we have for many years because it’s not stock and it’s not fixed income. You mentioned the inflows on gold. It’s actually had a pretty rough week given those inflows. But the reality is this as I think interest rate starts backing up. I think as we see like maybe a little bit of a taper, actually an inflation that actually might help gold here. So we’re actually adding to our portfolios to build out that position a little bit higher.
PAYNE: Right, let’s talk about what you’re buying, Mike, because you got us pumped up, my man. We’re in a secular bull market. Nothing’s going to stop us. May hit a speed bump here and there. How do we take advantage of it? What’s new in your portfolio?
LEE: Hey, Charles, I’m on the other side of this. Interest rates, I don’t believe. I think interest rates are going to back up here. Maybe we get a little bit higher, but then they eventually rally like we’re in a low growth, low inflation world. So I just added some utilities on that trade just just as a low rate trade, as a kind of conservative anchor to my equity portfolio. And I also added a big position in REITS, I think the right sector, it’s done really well, but I think it’s going to be one of the last legs of this recovery. And I think the low lower for longer, low interest rates really help them lever up and rebuild themselves.
PAYNE: All right. You know, utilities, I mean, you’re a brave man. There’s one utility I like next there, and I tell everyone when Biden was elected by that stock, it did terrific under President Obama. All of these things are trying to do means cash in their pockets. But it’s a tough one, although defensive halves look pretty good. Over the last few weeks. All right. Real quick. I think I’ve gotten enough time, 30 seconds. And the last time you were on, you mentioned the FedEx. I don’t think we’ll get a chance to talk before they report. I think so. So stay the course there.
BOOMER: I love FedEx. You know, it’s linked to e-commerce, all the stuff that you ordered, it comes to your house. A lot of it comes from FedEx. UPS is another great name, but FedEx trades at a 24 percent discount on a valuation basis to two ups. So whether their earnings are good or not, and I do think they’ll be good, I think FedEx is a great position on.
PAYNE: All right, gentlemen, let’s leave it there. Alan, Scott and Mike, have a fantastic weekend.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Station: Fox Business News
NEIL CAVUTO: We got Martin on this. The Kingsview Asset Management CIO. You know, Scott, it’s sort of like all dressed up, but no place to go. So is, you know, hot and very, very excited consumers who want to get their hands on a car, but they can’t find them, or at least the ones they want, and they wait and wait and wait. What do you make of this?
SCOTT MARTIN: They do, and they probably lose interest, Neil, and also don’t even mention the fact that there’s repairs out there that need to be done on some of these cars that folks have that they can’t get done either. So if you talk to a lot of these automakers, if you talked to a lot of the auto dealers? Not only are they having trouble getting materials, they’re actually even having trouble getting workers. So if you even get the materials into the dealership, having somebody to fix it, they’re if they’re actually coming into work is another story.
CAVUTO: You know, this problem doesn’t seem transitory, right? I mean, you and I have gotten into this before this notion that inflation and all these other issues are going to be short lived. Well, we’re past the short lived transitory stage just taking let his reported face value cars right now. This extends well into next year, maybe beyond. What do you think?
MARTIN: Yeah, I think it does, and I’ll tell you what else, Neil, if you just look at the effects that some of the issues have with the global supply chains on on all industries. In fact, if you look at how demand starts to wane because folks lose interest, folks find other things that they want to do or buy. You’re talking about a major effect on just the overall economy, but also in other areas of the economy than just autos. So if you look at the spread, that’s likely you had if this continues, that has a detrimental effect on future growth.
CAVUTO: How do you like the markets now? It’s been a bumpy September typically is, but we can’t get past our own way. Today’s game notwithstanding, what do you think generally has got a lot of bumps ahead?
MARTIN: Yeah, yeah. Yeah, look, I think there’s going to be a lot of bumps ahead. And if you’re a long term investor, you have to take those bumps in stride. Use some of those pullbacks and some of the Microsofts, the Amazons, the Adobe’s the Nike’s to buy in more on your positioning. Because if you see any kind of pullbacks five 10 percent in the market, you’re a long term investor. You have to take those opportunities to load up on some of the positions that may be weak in your portfolio because overall, a lot of those companies, a lot of those stocks I mentioned, I think, are going up into the right in the future.
CAVUTO: You know, you mentioned technology, it’s been taking it on the chin, say Microsoft today. You know, it’s buying back 60 billion dollars worth of its stock. It just raised its dividend 10 percent. It was flirting with the $300 a share before. I don’t know where it is now. If we can pop it up, guys, but what do you think of that?
MARTIN: Yeah, I think the buybacks are key. I mean, if you have a lot of these companies now that are preparing for higher taxes on the corporate tax rate coming forth, you have a lot of cash flow companies that are doing very well in the cash flow analysis. And so therefore they’re looking for something to do with all this. Cash buybacks is one thing. Dividends are another thing, and that actually intrigues investors to go out and buy shares of the companies that are doing that.
CAVUTO: All right. Scott, I want to thank you very much, my friend. Always good catching up with you.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses why great stocks pull back, and how investors should take advantage and buy in during those shifts.
Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Station: Fox Business News
CHARLES PAYNE: You know, I was between an uglier and a blob blob kind of week, right, the damage has been limited. We’ve been down a lot. I think the problem, the inability of this market to sort of get off the ground and gain any steam or traction. So what’s awaiting for us? What are we looking at for next week? I’m going to bring in the market pros Rob Luna, Scott Martin and Rob. You know, we’ve seen very low volume the lows volumes of the air this week, so I’m not sure what to make of it. But what are you bracing for? What are you getting out of this market message?
ROB LUNA: You know what I think’s going on right now, Charles? The trends, your friend. There’s a lot of momentum players in the market right now. Momentum ETFs. But think about the seasonality we’re in right now, September October. Those are bad months last year, a bad months this year. The question is why, though people have to pay taxes next month. I think they’re taking profits. Those names are in the momentum names. And with the lack of momentum in the market that we’re seeing right now, I think that’s going to keep money on the sidelines. I think it’s going to be this way a bit choppy for the next few weeks.
PAYNE: So, you know, one thing we’ve learned, Scott, when the market hasn’t had a five percent correction through August, it usually goes up for the rest of the year. It always does. Do you buy a dip to kind of dip their Rob’s talking about?
SCOTT MARTIN: I do, and I think Charles the Strong are going to survive this one, so what that means is it’s kind of like a heavyweight boxing fight, really. And even Mike Tyson in his best days did take some punches, believe it or not, and yes, delivered a lot more of him on his side. But the reality is this I mean, a lot of great stocks. I mean, the Workday’s, the Service Now is the Booking.com, the Adobe’s, the Amazons. These pull back, I mean, they have bad weeks or even in sometimes some cases months that as we believe at Kingsview and a
lot of these companies, long term, you’ve got to take the advantages of these pullbacks to add to strength. Strengthening stocks are strong stocks. They’re strong. So in my opinion, you want to wait for some of those things to come back into you right now because Rob’s right. I think we’re going to have a lot of chop going forward. I think there’s some concern over taxes. For some reason, there’s concern over what the Federal Reserve is going to do, and I think they’re just going to basically stimulate for the end of time. So take these pullbacks in stocks you like to add to your positions.
PAYNE: Not a lot of earnings next week, but we do get reads on manufacturing the retail sector in retail confidence. Less than a minute to go, Rob and we can get you in both Scott. What’s going to be the big mover? What’s going to be the big thing that perhaps moves the needle next week?
LUNA: Yeah, I know. I don’t think there’s going to be a big mover. I think it’s going to be a lot of chop next week. I think investors should prepare for that. And I think, look, you’ve got to look at individual stock selection right now. Charles, look at themes out there like the semiconductors, big systematic thing that we’re going to be seeing for the next year or two years. Look at names like C that are trading at a big discount right now. Pick winners. Don’t wait for momentum. Don’t wait for the news to tell you it’s time to get in and find some of those good names get ahead of the curve.
PAYNE: Scott, you got 10 seconds.
MARTIN: That’s too much. Darden Restaurants and Bloomin Onion too, I think Charles, those are companies that have pulled back restaurants to pull back because of worries about the virus. Well, those are great companies. So when they pull back, buy in.
PAYNE: All right. And Bloom has got one of the coolest symbols in. Hey, guys, have a great weekend, Liz Clemons at the New York Stock.
Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the variance in data points – job numbers, consumer confidence, PMI, and inflation.
Program: Mornings with Maria
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 6:00 AM
DAGEN MCDOWELL: Time for the word on Wall Street. Top investors watching your money. Joining me now, Kingsview Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, Fox News contributor Scott Martin, UBS Financial Services Private Wealth Advisor Alli McCartney, and Strategic Wealth Partners president and CEO Marc Tepper. Good to see all of you this morning. Scott, let me kick it off with you. We’re standing by for a weekly jobless claims out at eight thirty a.m. Eastern Time. Investors, of course, also waiting on the August jobs report due out tomorrow. The expectation there, seven hundred fifty thousand jobs added to the economy. The unemployment rate ticking down to five point two percent. Scott, what are you watching for?
SCOTT MARTIN: It all sounds awesome, doesn’t it? And I think these days is as untapped. That’s Mark Tepper. If you’re playing at home, if talked about all morning. There’s a lot of variance in these data points now. It’s just not the jobs numbers. It’s consumer confidence numbers. It’s PMI. It’s even inflation. My goodness. So the reality is this, Deighan, I think the market is ready for, say, a stinker to use a technical term here in the job market, because it’s not all bad news, boys and girls, because what that means is that kids, I think we go back to Mark annd I’s, say high school football days when we were stud’s, I think. Right, Mark, this is the lead block that the Fed needs going forward to keep that stimulus train going. If we start getting stinky again, to use that word, jobs numbers here, that allows the Fed to keep the spigot going as far as liquidity to the markets.
MCDOWELL: When you’re talking about the Fed, Scott, before we move on, in terms of the political pressure on Jay Powell, I just wonder and Tep can get in on this later as well. I just wonder, though, that won’t the spigot stay wide open because maybe Jay Powell wants to get another, you know, another term. Just real quick on that.
MARTIN: Yeah, another handful of years. Yeah, totally. And I think that’s the interesting thing is maybe Jay Powell is actually hoping for some disappointing economic numbers so he can justify the liquidy. But let’s face it, I mean, either maybe maybe they’re into the taper as soon as they think or maybe they don’t do the interest rate hikes as soon as they think. What are the other is not going to happen. So as far as the job numbers are concerned, I think the Fed has been right down the middle of the fairway. Another sports analogy. Yes, it’s early with respect to how they’re treating these markets and giving the markets what they need and what they expect. And that’s why we’re at or near all time highs in the S&P Nasci.
MCDOWELL: Yeah, I dare you to work in a cricket analogy. And next time you come on, Ali, I want to move on to you here. Let’s talk about consumer confidence. August, consumer confidence falling to its lowest level since February. And at the same time, we have companies like Costco announcing it’s going to reinstate purchasing limits on select items because people, again, are stockpiling goods as Covid cases. Serj, put this in perspective from a market or investor standpoint.
ALLI MCCARTNEY: Yeah. There’ll be no sports analogies here, I promise I couldn’t if I tried. Maybe lacrosse. I don’t know how that works. So, look, let’s go back to last March when the recovery in the market at least was was really heightened. And we said bull market participants said this is not going to be a straight line recovery. And the truth is that between now and then and very recently, it has been largely both in terms of earnings market numbers and economic information, pretty much a straight line recovery. And now we sit at this inflection point where a lot of the things that we were concerned about that were those downside risks have surfaced. We have a variant that is taxing hospitals and concerning both consumers and producers. Yet again, we have severe weather. We have back to school and we are past peak earnings. And so I think what a lot of the numbers that we’ve been seeing, both the ADP numbers we got yesterday, which were, you know, have 60 percent of what we were hoping for in terms of additional payrolls. I think the jobs number that we get tomorrow will reflect this as well. And consumer confidence, which we did get yesterday, which is the lowest number we’ve seen since February, which think about it, that was like the ramp up of both confidence in the vaccination program. So we’re now sitting at this low where consumers aren’t having checks deposited into their accounts where everybody was, at least where I am in New
York, the thought was everybody would be going back to New York in July and August in September. A lot of that has now been pushed forward as a result of the Delta variant into January. So we have sort of gone like this, and now we’re going to be here for a bit. And I think once we see the Delta variant, once we have a sense of how, quote unquote temporary or transient inflation is, once we have infrastructure kicking off and some more clarity in Washington, I think you will see another leg up
MCDOWELL: your dogs behind you, Ali, and we just love it.
MCCARTNEY: He hears you talking about dogs and there is nothing I can do.
MCDOWELL: It’s been a morning for everybody here in the Northeast. So we love seeing our fluffy little ones. Mark, we briefly mentioned the Fed before. Progressive lawmakers are calling on President Biden to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell, who has been campaigning for reappointment. Meantime, in a new Wall Street Journal op ed, Judy Shelton calls on Congress to rein in the Federal Reserve, calling its power unchecked. Your thoughts on the future of the Fed? And my issue is progressives putting pressure on Jay Powell to be more tough, particularly on financial regulations, banking regulation. I just think that it adds a real uncertainty, not maybe about the role of the Fed that investors might be underestimating.
MARK TEPPER: Yes, absolutely. So, look, I think the path of least resistance is to reappoint Jay Powell, like my man, ScotI Market said he’s been right down the middle of the fairway. I think he’s done a pretty good job. I disagree with his comments about inflation being transitory. I think it’s going to be a little longer lasting than that. But that’s a different story. When you look at Jay Powell, he’s got public support from senators on both sides of the aisle, even Janet Yellen, who supports his reappointment. And when you when you try to figure out what the market impact is going to be here, I think here’s what investors need to know. If Powell isn’t reappointed, the Fed’s going to become even more dovish. So that should continue to prop up stock prices. And right now, it’s essentially a two person race between Powell and Brainard. And dig into your point. Brainard is a left leaning enough that she could potentially transform the Fed’s mandate. Right now, it’s all about full employment and price stability. She could align the Fed more with Biden’s priorities on financial regulation and, of course, racial equality. Climate change. Right. But at the end of the day, here’s what I think happens. I think Powell gets reappointed. I think Brainard gets elevated to vice chair so that there’s some extra influence there. And I think you’ll end up getting more regulation in the financial system, probably a bit bearish for financials and crypto. But I think more of the same for everyone else.
MCDOWELL: Thank you so much, Mark. You sit right there, Scott Martin and Alli Macartney, thank you so much for being with us this morning. And hold that dog close, Ali. Much more ahead
MARTIN: Tell him about the Chewy earnings.
MCDOWELL: Yeah, exactly. Much more ahead this morning.