CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 3.24.21 Part 2

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses digitized currency, its possible trade behavior, and what government involvement could mean.

Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Date: 3/24/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 12:00PM

NEIL CAVUTO: With Danielle DiMartino Booth about the Intelligence LLC CEO, Chief Strategist, former Dallas Fed advisor as well, the Federal Reserve got kind of leery of this, too, I should point out. Scott Martin Kingsview Wealth Management, Fox News contributor. So, Danielle, we heard from Jerome Powell. He might take up this issue yet again today. We’re studying it. We’re looking at it normally. When you hear established US authorities talking about Bitcoin in that frame of mind, it’s their way of saying they can’t ignore it. Where are you on this?

DANIEELLE DIMARTINO BOOTH: I don’t think that there is a way to ignore the advent of digital currency. Know, we’ve heard from China that it’s very possible that the Beijing Olympics next year, that the only form of payment that’s going to be accepted will be a digitized yuan. So, the world is definitely moving in this direction. The largest economies are going there as well. There is no way to ignore Bitcoin. There is mass adoption going on right now, as we’ve seen today with Tesla. But as you mentioned, many financial institutions are truly legitimizing this form of currency, which is really a refutation of the trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars of debt being taken on, not just here in the United States, but globally. We’re pushing three hundred trillion dollars of debt. And this is this is kind of something that says, you know what, I reject where this is going. And this is a reflection of my rejection of that. That is, I think, the way Bitcoin is viewed throughout the world.

CAVUTO: You know, Scott, they say that investors in this class of assets are largely young or younger because they grasp the technology to grasp the potential. They just think it’s cool and they’ve seen people become instant millionaires investing at this thing when it was a few hundred bucks a coin and now north of fifty-six thousand bucks are gone and they want in on that party. I’m just wondering how you describe it as an investment that might now be going into the next level. This is just me wondering about this, where established players are more inclined to at least have it in its arsenal. And again, I’m talking beyond Tesla and Microsoft, Home Depot. We were showing that list. We’re going to rifle through some of the players again. What do you make of that as a young man yourself?

SCOTT MARTIN: Well, I was going to say I hate to ruin the premise, but I’m in it and I’m almost 80 years old, so that kind of ruins that whole deal, doesn’t it? But you know, what you’re right, Neal, about is that it’s just a lot of good face cream over the years. The result of that, Neal, though, is funny because as investment advisers, we have clients at all age ranges. And you’re right, a lot of it is the millennials, the younger generation, but a lot of the older folks, quote unquote, myself included, I am over 40. Let’s just put that out there. Do you want to get involved in that? And the institutions you mentioned? Why? Because to Daniel’s point, they see the opportunity here, whether it is talking against all the debt that we’re raising, whether it is talking down the dollar interest rate policy from the Fed, the fact that it is kind of this new neat digitized currency, the block chain process behind it is a little bit safer than what we deal with our own currency so far. I mean, there’s a lot of reasons to like it. I think the one thing that scares me a little bit, though, is it’s still in its infancy. And so how it trades and how it behaves over the next three to six months, five, you as you have all these companies pouring in like Tesla, that that put one point five billion of their balance sheet cash into Bitcoin. That still is risky to me because we don’t know what’s going to come of the government involvement or the Fed view of it. And when the government does get involved in this, I was hoping Danielle was going to say it, but I’m going to say it at risk here. That takes the fun out of it. Doesn’t I mean, that makes some of the upside, I think, kind of go away here. So, to me, as long as they stay out of it, that’s why I think it’s still an own.

CAVUTO: Well, they’re not going to stay out of it, I think they see this as a threat, or they certainly see it as a threat to the dollar and they’re not keen on that. They’re not going to say it as such, but they certainly intimated that. So, Danielle, the question then becomes what to make of this phenomenon here? Because with so many established players, at least including it in their list of assets, it is a sign that it’s getting mainstreamed a little bit, a little bit more. And I also think there’s another phenomenon going here where buyers can buy fractionally at fifty-six thousand. Sounds intimidating to you. What if you can buy in small doses and small takes and still have the same percentage run? I think since that started in a strong way, let’s say in the last six months particularly, that has contributed a lot to this rush of investors. Not they might all be getting hosed here. But your thoughts on that and how the authorities respond to that, or should they?

BOOTH: So, you know, there is indeed risk and you know what, you can put Bitcoin on a credit card. So, I think that there should be certain governors, certain limitations, certain guardrails out there, because it is still something that that trades all throughout the weekend. It can swing ten thousand dollars on any given day in value. So, you know, it is something that requires investor education. It’s the same as what we saw at the advent of the equity, a stock and what we saw with call options and put options that don’t require investors to put up the same amount of capital, but yet they do involve a great deal of risk. So, I applaud the adoption. I understand it, but I do see where governments do have a place in trying to look into it and make sure that that’s not someplace that they necessarily need to be. But to Scott’s point, that will take all of the fun out of it. But at least at least, Neil, you also have great hair. So that’s the upside.

CAVUTO: Well, there is some hope there. But, you know, one last thing before we move on, and I’m going to get you guys back to discuss watching the developments. But, Scott, this notion that a bitcoin can advance as the markets advancing it used to be the other way around Bitcoin would have a strong day when, let’s say the markets were not all the time, but a good deal of the time. Now they can move in tandem as if the markets see this not as a threat and vice versa for bitcoin. The markets and what they’re doing in a more traditional sense are not a threat either. Do you see that as a developed we should watch? Is it natural or they’re going to go their separate ways? They both can’t succeed together. What do you think?

MARTIN: I think it’s totally becoming a legit asset class and it hurts my old friend Gold to that degree, too, because as we see the government come out with these crazy spending programs, more infrastructure, more stimulus for everybody as they’ve killed the economy and tried to fix maybe their past mistakes, I think that’s really what Bitcoin is responding to. And so, you get a little inflation, maybe you get this economic reopening, you get more people using Bitcoin in different places. We already talked about Tesla. Now, I like how you put it, Neil Tesla. Maybe Bitcoin needs Tesla more than Tesla needs it, but maybe that’s just a symbiotic relationship. So, the reality is, is that as more adoption comes with the economic recovery, it’s good for the coin.

CAVUTO: Can you think about it? How you buy something with something that swings so wildly that as widely as it did before, is anyone’s guess, I guess. Danielle, that’s the thing that the regulators are going to look at, because you’re buying something that has value changes dramatically. Again, not with the 15 to 20 percent swings we used to see, you know, per day, but it does when. So, you’re buying, let’s say, a Tesla car. The price is one thing in the morning with this thing and quite another later in the afternoon. Right.

BOOTH: And that is at the very core of Bitcoin, again, something that Scott rightly says is in its infancy, in order for something to truly be a currency, it has to be a stable store of value, not just a medium of exchange. And on that count, it really does have yet to prove itself. So, it will take time. We will have to see it does stop moving in tandem with technology stocks, for example. I mean, that’s not that’s not necessarily the correlation that you want to see when go, go. Stocks are flying. So as bitcoin. And that is not something that you say to yourself, well, that’s you know, that that that that gives me a sense of peace. And again, something has to be a store of value. That’s why the US dollar retains its reserve currency. But it’s also why China’s trying to get into this realm, because China and Bitcoin both have their eye on the dollar.

CAVUTO: Yeah, and more like a target. So, we’ll watch it very closely. Guys, thank you very much. Don’t go away. We’re going to bring it back right after a report on what’s going on. Watch.


CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 3.22.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses the twenty-five-billion-dollar railway merger that will link Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, and its economic effects.

Program: Mornings with Maria
Date: 3/22/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 6:00AM

MARIA BARTIROMO: Time for the word on Wall Street. Top investors watching your money this week. Joining me right now is Kingsview Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer and Fox News contributor Scott Martin, Michael Lee Strategy founder Michael Lee and Bulltick Capital Markets Chief Strategist Kathryn Rooney Vera. Great to see everybody this morning. Thank you so much for being here, Kathryn, kicking it off with you. Markets are mixed this morning, but the Nasdaq on track for gains. The tech sector certainly has been very volatile lately, with Treasury yields backing up bond rates amid ongoing fears of inflation. This morning, we’ve got the 10-year yield pulling back from the one-point seven percent number we saw last week. What’s your take on where we are with tech stocks, which seem to be much more sensitive to this move in interest rates than any other area?

KATHRYN ROONEY VERA: Absolutely, I think that tech, especially the Nasdaq, when we get a 10 percent pullback, Maria, as an opportunity to accumulate positions in the sector that is fundamentally strong and going to be going forward in terms of interest rates and inflation. Inflation is an inevitability. It’s part of the equation of exchange and economics that we all learned about. If we study economics 101 a nominal GDP equals money supply 10 times the velocity of demand over the past year, 12 months, 40 percent of end one which is base money, just all the money circulating in the system has been created, 40 percent has been created. And velocity of money, which is simply the number of transactions in the system, has collapsed. So, one of the two has to change. More likely than not, Maria, given the amount of deficit spending, higher, higher employment and improvement in the economy and higher leverage people taking on more debt and spending, we’re going to get more velocity of money, which means inflation is going to increase. So, what I’m recommending to clients is, yes, they want to stay long, the benchmark indices, because the Fed and the federal government and the Federal Reserve are going to continue to juice markets, but protect yourself, protect yourself with Treasury inflation protected instruments, protect yourself with gold, protect yourself with sectors and with companies that will benefit from a certain inflation, which I see over the 18 to 24 months rise. It may be sooner, Maria.

BARTIROMO: Yeah, well, we’ll certainly be seeing moves in a number of commodities prices, so you could expect that we are going to see some threat here, although the Fed doesn’t seem worried at all. Look, we’ve got a couple of things happening this morning, Michael. You’ve got a twenty-five-billion-dollar rail deal. And then global markets are also watching Turkey. The Turkish lira plunged 10 percent after President Erdogan replaced the country’s top central banker with a vocal critic of higher interest rates. Your reaction to the Turkish story and how that may impact markets today?

MICHAEL LEE: Well, it’ll be interesting to see the effect on other emerging markets, but this is big news for Turkey. This is the third central banker in the last five years. Erdogan looking, always looking to consolidate power and running the government as he sees fit. And so, society general called this the point of no return. Turkey’s running at about a 15 percent inflation rate right now. And after printing increasing loan growth by 50 percent last year to combat the coronavirus, their foreign reserves are dwindling. Their GDP’s about seven hundred and sixty billion dollars in us, and they owe about four hundred and sixty billion dollars’ worth of US denominated debt. The problem when you owe debt in another currency is you can’t print your way out of it the way that the US is doing right now. So, it seems the walls are starting to come in on the Turkish economy. Therefore, the way out of this for a company or for a country like Turkey is foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment peaked in 2010 and now we’re at levels below that a decade later. And that’s what happens when you have leadership that’s essentially a puppet dictator looking to remake the Ottoman Empire. So, I’m definitely in sojourns camp here thinking that this is the point of no return. It’ll be interesting to see these knock-on effects of the money printing and a lot of these other emerging markets, a lot of countries that simply do not have the balance sheet strength of the United States to be able to stimulate their way out of this. Hopefully the United States economy can lead the rest of the world out of this recession, as it has done many times before. But that remains to be seen.

BARTIROMO: So, so you don’t so you don’t see the Turkey story, though, having an impact on US markets?

LEE: Well, look, there definitely is a knock-on effect on all the other emerging markets. So, you know, that’s going to create some additional volatility. But I don’t think it’s going to affect the U.S. GDP growth one iota.

BARTIROMO: Well, you also have some pretty good deals to talk about this morning, Scott, railroad giant Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern announced a twenty-five-billion-dollar merger. This is going to create the first railroad freight line that links Canada, the US and Mexico. Scott, the implications here, how do you how do you invest around this one?

SCOTT MARTIN: Love it. Merger Monday seems to be back, Maria, and full disclosure, I’m a huge trains fans played with model trains as a kid and actually chased them as an adult. And, yes, that is a real thing. So, this is a great deal for us. We own railroads. That’s a really, really real thing. So, here’s the thing, though. If you look at you mentioned USCA, hey, we talked about it a couple of years ago, passage of that, the revamp of NAFTA starting to show its fruition with respect to what it’s doing for businesses and generation of new, say, rail lines in this case. So, if you look going forward, though, look at how the merger Monday kind of thing could start going. I mean, look at hospitality, look at some other areas, hotels, restaurants, things like that that are depressed in value. You could start to see a lot more companies kind of getting together and putting together forces to take advantage of the current economic environment.

BARTIROMO: Yeah, you make a good point, because there’s also Crown, the Blackstone Group making a bid for the gaming business. And now this deal in railroads. Anything to say about policy with regard to its impact on the rail business, Scott? Because we know that the Biden administration cancelled the XL pipeline. Does that ultimately become a positive for the railroad sector?

MARTIN: It does in the case of, say, this merger, because, as you mentioned, it’s Canada, US and Mexico, the first railroad line that will have all three countries in concert there. But also, Maria, to look at this Green new effect that say the administration is trying to have on the economy, trying to clean up and green up some of our highways, take some of those same fuel, non-fuel-efficient trucks off the highways. The railroads should benefit from that transportation as far as freight.

BARTIROMO: All right, great to see everybody this morning, Scott Martin, Michael Lee, Kathryn Rooney, Vera, always a pleasure. Have a great Monday. We’ll see you soon. Thanks so much. Much more ahead this morning.


CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 3.19.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses increased taxes and the Treasury Department’s record revenues.

Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Date: 3/19/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 12:00PM

NEIL CAVUTO: All right, what is fair share for those of a certain age, I’ll probably be just leaving you out on this one, but it does remind me of a Luke Costello skit with Bud Abbott where he’s trying to explain something or understand something. So, for that audience, I’m just saying, you said FairShare was thirty-nine-point six percent and then we got it. Then you said it had to go up another few percentage points to forty two percent to pay a Medicare surtax. So, forty two percent was a fair share. Then it had to go up another three percent to pay for the Affordable Care Act. That brought it up to forty five percent. Then a number of states like New Jersey, they said, I’m going in and out of this, but they all of a sudden, we’re adding it to bring it over 50 percent and it’s still not a fair share. So, what is it? What is it? Let’s go back to two people who cannot remember Abbott and Costello, but they’re smart, nevertheless. Danielle DiMartino, both Scott Martin. Scott, what is i. I really don’t know. I mean, we can kid aside and do the you know, the whole Lou Costello thing about what is fair share, but it keeps changing. I don’t know if it’s going to go over 40 percent. And with all these other things over forty five percent where it stops, where it goes, what do you think?

SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, maybe it has to do with the fact that the Treasury Department is receiving record revenues in taxes from the American people, so that may be something. Look, as far as the rich folks go, they don’t pay their fair share. Neil, they actually pay more than their fair share. And that’s really what worries me about how we treat the folks that are productive in society and create jobs and do the spending. I’m sitting here thinking about how to answer this question. I’m looking at this one point nine trillion exorbitant stimulus package we just passed a couple of weeks ago, the American Recovery Act or something like that plan. You know, that’s the amount of money that the Treasury Department gets in either income taxes just about to the dime, either in income taxes or payroll taxes. So why don’t we take that spending money? And why don’t we give people like a tax holiday and one of those two buckets? Because that’s where money is going to go. Best spent or best treated, not by taking it away from people to pay for some stimulus package that we didn’t need. That doesn’t go to good places. And I may be way off. I’m glad Daniels here because I might be missing something, but that seems to make a lot of sense to me.

CAVUTO: Well, I do know this much, Daniel. They’re very creative coming up with ways to get more money into Washington, not not to go to, you know, slowing down the amount of money leaving Washington. And that’s what worries me. I mean, we can talk about the rich and many of them can afford these higher taxes and all. But what is a fair share for them to make it right to stop saying that they’re not doing enough, that they’re hosing the system or whatever else is being argued on the part of those who say that they’re not doing enough when in fact, they’re paying the lion’s share of the taxes.

DANIELLE DIMARTINO BOOTH: You know, it’s hard to say, Neal, I don’t know that they think that there is necessarily a limit, but I can say this much. You know, the CPAs of across America are licking their chops right now because they’re like, oh, goody, they’re going to make the thousands and thousands and thousands of pages of US tax code even more complicated than they are by putting little things here and there, as you were saying, two percent, three percent. Look, I’ve got this great idea that would actually make it to where the IRS didn’t have to have as many people on their payroll so that we didn’t have to replenish it. Why don’t we simplify the tax code and make things a lot easier than they were then rather than just try and nickel, dime, nickel, dime, nickel, dime. If you are wealthy and you make the tax code that much more complicated, you’re just going to pay your CPA a little bit more money so that he can get you out of it. And if you really, really, really try and soak the rich, that’d be a that’d be great for other countries. For other countries. Neil.

CAVUTO: Yeah, everybody’s got a skin in the game, obviously, the rich should be paying more of that skin that I understand that’s the nature of our progressive tax code. But this is all out of whack here. I just have no idea what this moving target means and where it goes. But I have a good sense that neither of you are paying your fair share. So, you’re gonna have to pony up. Guys, I want to thank you both very, very much. Is the IRS, which, of course, is watching. We have a lot more coming up.


CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 3.19.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses pullback and the bond yield story.

Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Date: 3/19/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 2:00PM

CHARLES PAYNE: And then there are US taxes. Yes, they are going up, but more than likely they’ll be held in check by some of the same forces that curb the more egregious proposals that could have really slipped into that last rescue package. I know the progressive wish list is frightening, but moderates are now flexing their muscle and pushing back. But the changes and who could see higher taxes from individuals earning four hundred thousand to households? That’s a tough one, folks. It’s a hard bombshell to swallow. Now, maybe overall I’m being too sanguine. So, let’s get the read from Laffer Tengler Investments Chief Investment Officer, Nancy Tengler, Kingsview Wealth Management CIO, Fox Business contributor Scott Martin and Wealth Enhancement Group Senior Vice President Nicole Webb. Nancy, you know, listen, I know the market buys right now still to the downside, but I don’t see where the big risk are. I’m feeling like now’s the time. You know, we always talk about buying the dip. Now’s the time to start looking to buy that dip. What do you think?

NANCY TENGLER: Yeah, Charles. I mean, we’ve been waiting for a correction. We may have gotten it in the Nasdaq, but if you look at what’s going to drive this market forward from here, it is going to be continued strong economic data and earnings. So, we think you buy the dips for a while. It’s not a forever strategy, but we’re pretty bullish and we sort of see this market is more analogous to the 1990s productivity driven growth than most recent years.

PAYNE: You know, Scott, I know buy the dip is not forever, but it’s worked pretty good since March of 2009. Now, of course, I’m not one of those guys who wants anytime everyone comes on and we’re down one percent, I’m asking if you’re buying a dip. But to Nancy’s point, the Nasdaq certainly looks like it’s run its course. What do you think?

SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, fifty percent of the time, Charles. It works every time. And I think in this environment, like Nancy said, that’s what you need to do. I mean, that’s the weird thing, right? It’s like, you know, as investors, a lot of us were chasing these crazy stocks from last year. And I’m talking about the Zoom’s, the PayPal’s, the Squares, the Docusigns, the Invidia is the Teladoc, the Pelton’s. I mean, that could go on and on. And they weren’t pulling back, but everybody kept piling in. And so finally, we’re getting some pullbacks, not we’re getting what in our estimation is an overreaction to the 10-year Treasury note going up in yield. As you said, Charles, and I quote, the yields will go up. I mean, they do that in times when we’re going to have better economic recovery ahead. So when you get the gift, Mr. and Mrs. Investor of a pullback of twenty five, thirty five, maybe even 40 percent in some of the names I mentioned already, those are times when you’ve got to go in and hold these things for the next six to 12 months.

PAYNE: You know Nicole, it’s so interesting because for the for the last half of last year, there were a lot of skeptics out there who pushed back on the notion that we were in a V shaped recovery. Those same voices are now saying the recovery is too strong, it’s too strong. So, help me out. Are we going from here?

NICOLE WEBB: Yeah. You know, to piggyback on what Scott and Nancy just said, I think the rest of the year has a rosy outlook, a lot of optimism, a lot of money. We keep hearing the narrative about all the cash on the sidelines. There are a couple of risks that will create buying opportunities in the short term. And I think one of those is the lockdown’s that we’re seeing in France and Italy right now. And so that might create a little bit of uneasiness in the U.S. markets in the weeks to come. You know, additionally, I think one of the concerns that we’re going to hear brought forward is we really have great consumption numbers. So even if we go back to full employment, where does the growth come from? And so, you know, well, I do think that this year is going to be a buy those little dips you just heard. It is great advice; I think continued uneasiness until we do normalize interest rates. But at some point, they will. And so investors have to be quickly

PAYNE: Nicole let me jump in for one second. What about things we just absolutely could not do over the last year? I mean, certainly airline tickets or airline sales will go up, concert sales will go up. I mean, there are some unique things we could spend money on that we couldn’t spend money on for a whole year.

WEBB: Absolutely, and I think we’re all chomping at the bit to get back out there. We’re just waiting for the A. OK, let’s get going. And I do think there’s still value there. You know, I do also think there was a simple pause this week in the oil markets. And as we talk about that, get out of the house, return to travel, you can return to that normal consumption. You know, those fun days ahead are going to be profitable for this economy.

PAYNE: Put me down for every concert, if you know a show. Let me know I’m going, by the way, today

MARTIN: I’m playing.

PAYNE: FedEx is the big winner — Let me know– anyone, And Scott, I’m with you. Buy an extra ticket. Buy two. I’m telling you. Now, today we were reminded that earnings do matter. FedEx has some strong numbers, strong guidance. And Scott, I want to go back to you on this because Nancy just referenced it. What about earnings? Right. There was a time when earnings were the main thing, particularly guidance. The mother’s milk of stock markets, I think, is going to matter more than bond yields going forward.

MARTIN: It might I have this concern, though, Charles, because it’s just a better headline right now, that the bond yield story is going to overshadow maybe the next quarter of earnings reports, which frankly, is so funny. I mean, it’s right around the corner. I mean, April’s knocking on the door here. So, April, May, I still believe the headlines are going to be dominated by, oh, my gosh, the ten years at two percent like everybody used to freak out. So, we’re going to lose a quarter, I think, Charles, of that earnings potential, the earnings attention that it deserves. But what’s going to happen is. If you’re an at home investor and you’re missing some of those great indicators, you’re going to be left holding the bag of these interest rate scares and not paying attention to some of these great earnings out there, which by the time they actually do show up in the market, does turn its attention there. It may be too late to get into some of those stocks that have shown up so well in next couple of months.

PAYNE: Nancy, That’s a really interesting aspect about today’s session. First of all, the VIX is getting hammered, the VIX is down. We’re near the lowest point we’ve been in a year, the so-called fear index. So, bond yields have rocketed higher. That means value stocks should be up. No growth is rocking today. What is what is the message of this market for you, Nancy?

TENGLER: Well, day to day, it’s kind of head snapping. But for us, like Scott just said, we’re using the opportunity. The weakness is an opportunity to add to techs. We don’t think the tech story’s over. And I’ve said that on your show many times. We’re not buying growth at any price. We’re buying growth at a reasonable price. And our favorite investment theme is where consumer, which Nicole was mentioning, and it will be robust, where consumer meets digital and that those are some of the names that that we really look forward to add and weakness.

PAYNE: Well, today, Etsy is the number one performer in the market would that qualify?

TENGLER: That’s not one we’re watching. Unfortunately, it’s a little too lofty for us still. But other names like some of the traditional restaurants, Starbucks is.

PAYNE: I got you, I understand. That’s Williams-Sonoma. They reported in the digital. The e-commerce was 70 percent of overall revenue. And that stock is taking off like a rocket. Nicole same question to you… Do you find it intriguing? For the last five weeks, investors were told yields up growth down. Today, yields have rocketed higher and growth names, {INAUDIBLE} communications services through the roof.

WEBB: No, I, I, I think that growth is here to stay. And that story continues and the ecosystems are so sticky. You know, I think it’s going to be this conversational shift from work from home to cloud technologies. You know, I also think it’ll be really interesting and again, create buying opportunities when you’re sitting there watching these shifts, knowing very well that technology isn’t going anywhere, that this is disruption caused by changes in interest rates that will normalize. In addition to that, we’re going to we’re going to hit the one-year anniversary of the market lows in March. And I do get curious if we’re going to see some of that some of these momentum investments starting to pick up a lot of value as they rebalance and so picking up a simple value ETF may have a lot of tailwind in it in the weeks ahead. And I think that could be interesting. But again, it may also trigger that that buying opportunity.

PAYNE: I like what you said. The tech isn’t going anywhere. Imagine if we didn’t have tech. I could be doing this show from the house. All four of us would have a string and a cup and we’d be trying to get this thing done. Scott, Nicole, Nancy, thank you all very much. Appreciate it.


CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 3.16.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses new taxes and regulations, and how small business may be impacted.

Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Date: 3/16/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 12:00PM

DAVID ASMAN: President Biden reportedly planning the first major tax hike in almost thirty years. There was one under Obama. I guess they don’t consider that to be major, but the market doesn’t seem to be responding. Why not? Let’s bring in Scott Martin and Brian Wesbury. Scott, first to you. I think so far, the market is more happy about all of the ends of the lockdowns we just talked about. Even California is now ending a lot of its lockdowns. They’re more focused on that than they are the rising costs of doing business because of tax hikes. What do you think?

SCOTT MARTIN: Yeah, I agree, David. And let’s face it, some of the high, lets say, from some of the spending needs to wear off, too. But you’re right, I think eventually the market will come to grips with tax hikes. Now, maybe there’s one thing too going on, David, where maybe they think some of this stuff is just, say, pomp and circumstance and won’t get all the way through. But the reality is this. If you look at companies going forward-facing higher taxes, that’s definitely going to hurt jobs, but also maybe make companies more efficient, obviously drive up productivity, drive up revenue per employee. So there’s maybe some good things that could come of this. But by and large, when they set in, if they are draconian, as they seem, that could definitely impact stock price.

ASMAN: Now, Brian, I’m not too worried about the wealth tax, honestly, because I think that despite all the problems it could cause, it’s unconstitutional. It would go to the Supreme Court, take years to deal with and also Americans, It’s just un-American. People don’t want tax police digging up their backyard, looking for buried gold and and jewelry and pictures and so forth. So it’s just it’s just a nasty tax that I don’t think will pass the muster. But when I look at the fact that they’re thinking of paring back and I’m quoting from an article here, they’re thinking of paring back tax preferences for so-called pass-through businesses. Most businesses in America are passed

through businesses. There’s a lot of people who are small business owners who who pour their income back into their — they pay their profit in terms of income tax and they pour their money back in from their profits back into their business. They’re not millionaires, even though it may appear so on paper.

BRIAN WESBURY: Right. Right. I mean, this is absolutely correct. And I want to, you know, ditto Scott for what he said. Except for one thing, I do not believe tax hikes have any positive impact on the economy or productivity or job creation. None, zero, nada. And so then to go to this pass-through tax, you know, you either pay taxes at the business level or you pay them at the individual level. And so if there is pass-through income, individuals pay the tax. And so if you start, you tax it in both places, you’re now double taxing. And that really harms growth over time. One of the things that I think the market is looking at today is, look, we just spent one point nine trillion on top of about four trillion last year. We’re talking about spending two to four trillion more and hiking taxes. The tax hikes won’t go into effect until next year. The initial phase of borrowing on our credit card to spend actually boost economic growth and profits. So that helps the market. And so what we have is kind of a medium to long term problem, while in the short term, short term, we get to live with a sugar with the sugar high.

ASMAN: Let me let Scott back in here. Hold on a second. Because Scott, the fact is, it looks like this administration is thinking of making the same mistake made by the Obama-Biden administration, just when the the economy’s getting back on its feet. That’s when we get new taxes, new regulations. Of course, we’ve already had regulations in the energy field, but we could be suppressing take-off of the economy in twenty, twenty-two. We’ll see that initial phase this year because the whole all of the end of the lockdown is going to create a boom. But just as we’re getting back on our feet again, we could come down with the cost of doing business because of regs and taxes.

MARTIN: Yeah, it’s back to the “you didn’t build that days” from Obama. And that’s the scary thing, too. I think you have these small businesses that have actually made it through the government shutdown and the government force of closing them down because they knew better. And now these businesses that have made it through by the skin of their teeth, which is very, very small, by the way, they actually say now you’ve got to pay more because you actually made it. You know, you have to pay for all this malaise in this excess creation of spending that we’ve done, the American rescue plan that we didn’t need, that we needed, because the government shut everybody down, took away everybody’s liberty and told them what to do with their business, with their personal lives, because the government knew better. That’s the scary part. Brian’s right. He’s smarter than I am in the sense that you’re right, taxes are bad. Maybe it does make businesses more efficient in some way. But tax money, when the government says we know what to do with your money better than you do, that’s where I get worried and saying it’s tax money. It’s just a euphemism for them saying they’re gonna take it from ya.

ASMAN: There’s not a lot of skin on anybody’s teeth these days. That’s the bottom line. Brian, I wish we had more time, but we’ve run out, you guys are really terrific. Thanks very much for being here. Appreciate it.



CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 3.12.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses gold and the hedge against inflation, plus what’s happening with tech, restaurants and airlines.

Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Date: 3/12/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 2:00PM

CHARLES PAYNE: I’m going to bring in Gibbs Wealth Management’s Erin Gibbs, the Delancey Strategies president, Jared Levy and Kingsview Wealth Management CIO, also Fox Business contributor Scott Martin. Let me start with you, Erin, because I got to admit, you’ve been ahead of the crowd. You were on cyclical names. You talked about them a lot. And of course, now they are benefiting from an improving economy. But you can almost argue that some of them look like they’re getting expensive, and growth may be getting oversold. So are you making any adjustments yet?

ERIN GIBBS: No, I don’t see them as really turning or having any change in trend while they are getting more expensive and growth. I wouldn’t call it quite oversold just yet when you look at some of those valuations. But just taking example, one of my favorites, financials, the financial sector is still trading at a thirty percent discount to the S&P. Five hundred. And that historically is an extreme discount even in a low yield environment. We’re normally talking about a twenty percent discount, not thirty to forty. So I still don’t see this as overbought by any means. And there’s still room for it to grow.

PAYNE: All right Scott, a gusher of money coming in, it’s got to go somewhere, how do we get positioned for it?

SCOTT MARTIN: I think it goes to stocks, Charles, into Erin’s point, just to dovetail that we actually took some money from, say, weaken tech to the beaten up tech last week. And what that means, Charles, is looking at things like Square, looking at things like Invidia, DocuSign, Teladoc, things that got way blasted down, down a linear regression support lines, as well as things that just got, frankly, oversold on say, the RF side and the Mac D’s to get technical on you. And so those are areas, too, to your lead in there, Charles, where you I think you can start picking up some positions, and that’s what’s

going to make a good stock picker this year is waiting for those stocks, those high flyers from last year. Yes. To come back to you at a price level where you can take another bite.

PAYNE: You know, I’m inclined to agree with you that the – that the stay at home, the tech side of that probably way oversold. Someone, in fact, a third-tier firm, put a sell on Square today. So to your point, there on my watch list as well, Jared, how are you playing this?

JARED LEVY: You know, I like everything that Scottie said. You know, I think that the way I’m kind of spinning it is I’m looking for two things. A, I’m looking for sort of there’s transformational names, the maybe haven’t gotten all the love. You know, I’m liking Best Buy right here. They’re transforming into digital. We’ve got all this sort of pent-up potential in Consumers are now getting back to the streets. They’ve got savings. They’ve got cash in hand. They’ve got optimism on trying to play that. Also looking at Johnson and Johnson, a little defensive, but I don’t think people are taking the efficacy and convenience of their shot plus their every day, you know, sort of play to the consumer as seriously as they should. So I like those two names, you know, and that’s that’s what I’m kind of moving into here watching for some of the high flyers in Leisure. There has been a lot of big buying in like PEJ, which is an ETF to buy a lot of leisure, watch out on those names. I don’t know if I would be gobbling up here, I’d wait for a pullback.

PAYNE: It’s so weird too with Staples, right? I mean, they had a flash at the very beginning as a defensive place and then they have been totally under water. Let’s stick with this theme, though. The consumer we had sentiment numbers out this morning came in stronger than expected. It was powered by an almost ten percent spike in expectations. So we’re feeling more confident about six months down the road, in fact, the second-highest level since last March. In addition to that, L brands posted a strong financial result. They up their first-quarter guidance, almost doubled it to sixty-five cents from thirty-five. They’ve reinstated the dividend for the year. It’s going to be sixty cents. This company following Gap saying it’s going to be a huge year. Jared, I’ll go back to you. First, I’m going to take a victory lap because last year I was pounding the table. I told people to buy brick-and-mortar retail, and they have gone through the roof. In fact, I still own some Gap stores at thirteen. What about some of these other names? Because, again, it’s so crazy when Wall Street seems to be warming up.

A lot of these names have taken off to the point. You wonder if you missed it.

LEVY: Yeah, I think there is some room there. By the way, kudos on that call. I know you’ve made I know you’ve stuck with this one, and sometimes it’s hard to do right. I think what we’ve got to remember is this remember pent-up consumer demand. We just had a year of pretty rough times for a lot of retailers, a lot of brick and mortar guys that had to kind of reinvent themselves. So right now, you’ve got these lean, mean fighting machines that when the consumer returns to the normal buying levels or normal activity, a lot of them will flourish. I think you’ve got to look at a name by name basis. I think you need to be sort of, again, careful just going out and buying a retail ETF, you know, get the Macy’s of the world. I would watch a little bit some of the smaller plays that you were talking about. You know, Gap could be interesting. I think you just got to be a definite stock picker there. Just don’t go by brick-and-mortar retail. But I like the sector. I think it’s going to continue to perform generally well.

PAYNE: Erin, you know, a lot of people are gonna have alot of money burning a hole in their pockets. I mean, how how do you positioning for that?

GIBBS: So I’m still hesitant about a lot of the apparel retailers. I mean, I think Elle Brands is different because they had the bath and body which really helped them. But aside from that, when you get all your new clothes, you want to go out. So my idea more is looking at restaurants, look at Leisure, right? You get these new clothes. Darden Restaurants, a little more upscale. It’s not your fast food that we’ve been living off of. And so I think Darden Restaurants and those types of slow, fast food, family eating could really take off over the next six months.

PAYNE: Oh, I agree. I was trying to figure out a way to take this equipment out of this room and to the front lawn. That’s how beautiful it is outside and how eager it is. I want to get out there. Hey, Scott, let me ask you about Gold. There was a report out earlier this week. It’s not living up to the hype in terms of being a hedge against inflation. Is it time to reconsider some other hedge against this inflation story that won’t go away?

MARTIN: Yes, I believe it is, Charles, and, you know, I’ve been a Gold lover on Gold was great last year. I mean, Gold really helped out our portfolios as far as reducing volatility. So it did serve its purpose and now it’s just not doing

much. So there’s two things. One, I think that love is kind of going to Bitcoin, which obviously we’ve seen take off for Gold is kind of slumped. But I’ll tell you, man, if there’s real inflation out there and this is true, do inflation that’s coming down the pike here, stocks, stocks are going to be that hedge because you’re going to see the inflation pace pick up in stock prices. And so I think stocks here are good hedge against any inflation expectations that we have.

PAYNE: I got to ask all of you about this report out saying that stock pickers underperformed the market yet again, eleven straight years of lagging the S&P 500. I’ll go back to you on this first, Scott. I mean, what’s the argument for professional stock pickers?

MARTIN: Well, at least for ones like me, I hate to say it, but we actually did beat the market. So I don’t know who we are talking about. But you can go back on the tape, Charles. You know, I like something that Erin talked about because we talked about stuff like Darden Restaurants. We talked about stuff like Bloomin last year –we talked about Southwest Airlines. I said, I love Southwest Airlines. LUV is the ticker. So I don’t know how these stock pickers missed it. But you’ve got to stay with good themes and you have to be able to deal with volatility. I think on some of the stock pickers I’ve seen and looked into, they sell too early or they sell too late and they don’t hang on.

PAYNE: Jared, I got to tell you, I do find the data to be very suspicious, particularly last year, because the winners won big and the losers lost big. And I don’t see how some of these general funds could have beaten people who really just saw things like we talk about on this show every day. But what do you tell someone who says, well, maybe I should just buy a regular old ETF?

LEVY: There’s two bits of this, right, I mean, Scott, he’s right, you know, I look at my numbers, I look at a lot of my my colleagues numbers they’re doing great. Here’s the thing you got to remember, right, when markets are sort of straight up parabolic in one direction over a long period of time, everybody is a genius. All of my friends, all of my doctor buddies are out there like, dude, I’m killing in the markets. Yeah, you are because stocks did nothing but go up. Now, remember, as pros were diversifying, were buying insurance, we’re spending money on the just in cases and we’re also protecting ourselves for when the term does come, so some of that money, some of that upside might

be spent on protective measures. So I would think that’s the general theme, that as an investor, you got to think about. You know, if you put your money just in an ETF and let it sit there, be prepared, like Scotty said, for some volatility to wild ride, whereas the is going to massage that a little bit. And usually when markets are volatile, they will return that volatility then than the average.

PAYNE: That that reminds me of our old colleague here, John Stossel. He did a show once where he put a bunch of symbols on a dartboard and threw darts. And then at the end of the year, he said he outperformed the market, but he didn’t deal, Erin, with the emotions of it. You know, you buy Boeing, for instance. How many people have sold Boeing at a loss in the last year and now it’s through the roof again, the emotional part of this, I think a lot of people have to understand in hindsight, it looks easy.

GIBBS: It does, and I think part of it is is really sticking to our convictions and an understanding of the thematic changes, and certainly with the advent of ETFs, it is harder for managers to beat. And we’ve known that. The more ETF there are, the harder it is for active managers to beat. But when you look at the big changes years like two thousand nine, twenty ten, those are the years where active managers actually beat. Same with two thousand three, four and five. So when you see big thematic changes, those are the years where managers can really help and you look ahead and stick to their themes and beat the market.

PAYNE: And then last year and a half has been all about things, I’m telling you, I think I think only what less than sixty percent of the stocks in the S&P were winners last year. You really have to be spot on, Erin, Jared and Scott, thank you very much. And that’s why I had this conversation with you, because you all have amazing, impeccable track records.


CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 3.5.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses interest rates, “good” inflation and reinflating stocks after the stimulus.

Program: Making Money with Charles Payne
Date: 3/5/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 2:00PM

CHARLES PAYNE: Investors want J. Powell to be the sledgehammer so badly yesterday, but instead some think he brought out a fiddle. OK, and the market did burn yesterday. It was down earlier this morning. Of course. You know what? It’s pretty obvious that people are on pins and needles now.

It is true that the Fed should not make policy based on Wall Street’s every need and all of the whining of Wall Street. But let’s not forget Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, sort of put the situation into place and now he’s paying the price. So is the market. Ironically, though, investors that were hoping for Operation Twist or some other things got nothing. And we’ve got some guests today who actually think that was the best medicine. Anyway, the whole affair right now feels like a swan song, but it may not be. So, don’t panic until you watch this show, because there’s a lot going on wit. the sell off. And as you can see, subsequent rebound. Maybe Jay Powell did the right thing after all. Maybe he should hold on to what he’s doing and maybe you should hold on to what you’re doing. On that note, I want to bring in two of my favorite guests, Rob LUNA, Scott Martin. And I got to tell you guys, let me start with you, Rob, because you were a little bit more bullish, I think than Scott the last time we spoke, this reaction from last week to yesterday, even today is resolved. What do you make of it?

ROB LUNA: I think it’s all really healthy, actually, Charles. I mean, if you look at the moving averages, we said last week we’re going to test the fifty. We did that. We saw the QQQ break below that. But you know what’s happening, Charles? If you look at some of the stocks and we said this, you’re going to have your leading stocks, your Facebook, Amazon went down to that two hundred today, bounced off that. And if you look at that, that’s when the market turned around. I think this is all really healthy. We need to wash out those we can in order to see that next move up.

PAYNE: And hey, you know, so, Scott, you’ve been a lot more conservative, if you will, about the market. And I know you know, it’s interesting because we go up usually in the Stairsteps and we come down in the elevator, and that’s when a guy like you would say, hey, you got to pay attention to those elevator ride sometimes. So, what are you feeling right now about the way the markets reacted, particularly to interest rates? OK, one point six, two percent on the 10 year. Still not the worst thing in the world.

SCOTT MARTIN: Not at all, and it’s surprising, Charles, to see the market react so terribly to that because we knew this was coming, I mean, maybe it came a little faster and say furious or if I may, than it was expected to be. But this isn’t a terrible thing. I mean, rates going up, rates normalizing, maybe a little inflation should be good for stocks. And I agree with Rob’s point. I mean, if you look at even beyond some of those big cap techs out there, Charles, I mean, look at the Twilio, the Snowflakes, the PayPal’s, the Squares, the Teladoc, the Zoom’s. I could go on. I mean, there’s a host of I mean, there’s a few dozen out there that have totally reversed today and balanced. I mean, I haven’t seen opportunity in tech like this since I was prom king in the 90s. That should tell you something. Yeah.

PAYNE: And that’s when everybody is excited about the calculator. Right. They had like five windows. So that was a long time ago. The Commodore the Commodore computer was reigning back then. All right. So, let’s talk about then the changes in portfolios. Right. You know, Scott pointed it out. People are being opportunistic, by the way, being opportunistic, buying dips has only worked since two thousand and nine. Rob have you made any changes today or in the last couple of sessions?

LUNA: No. You know, we’ve been I know you hate this, Charles, using the barbell, but let’s give people actionable strategies. Oh, look, look, look, look at the Aristocrat Index it’s helping people. And you beat me up, rightfully so about Chevron last year. But look, that paid off. We bought the dips on that. But what we’re doing now, we’re holding on to that Chevron position. But now it’s time to reload on some of these tech names. Like Scott said, Paypal, Zoom’s these are long term winners. You don’t get opportunities like this a lot. We like those names right here.

PAYNE: You know, here’s the thing, though, and listen, I’m in oil, I’m in it big, and I’ve been talking about the commodity supercycle, in fact, pounding the
table on it, you know, but now you’ve got this interesting thing, oil also getting a help from OPEC’s. There’s a little bit of a different story. But back to these potential opportunities, Scott. You know, for someone like you who has been relatively cautious, that’s obvious. You were waiting your time. So, what about this inflation scare? Is this overdone? I mean, yeah, of course, we know there is going to be some inflation, but is there enough to derail all of the amazing powder we’ve got from household spending to corporations to the jobs report this morning? I mean, to me, that should be a bigger macro story.

MARTIN: Yeah, the pattern is going to be fine and like everybody’s freaked about inflation, maybe going to war, like, I don’t know, two and a half, three percent, like, oh, my goodness. I mean, it’s so scary when if you look in past decades when inflation was a real problem, I mean, you’re pushing double digits in some cases, especially overseas. So, I mean, that’s not a concern. Like that’s actually good inflation. In fact, as the economy reopens, Charles, and maybe hopefully, I mean, God willing, we pull away from all this crazy stimulus we’re getting, which I think the market is telling you we don’t really need. I mean, that’s why rates, in my opinion, are going up so much. Maybe a little inflation could go actually a long way to kind of reinflate stocks a bit because they’re going to need a kick once we’re done with the stimulus and things like that. So, with respect to the inflation expectations, keep them coming as long as they don’t go crazy. And three percent inflation, if we get it, isn’t that bad.

PAYNE: You know, I always tell people we love when our paychecks inflate. We love when the value of our home inflates. We love when the value of our Tom Brady rookie card inflates. So, there’s not all inflation is not a four-letter word, right, Rob?

LUNA: No, it’s true. I mean, Scott’s right on with that. And we need some inflation. But you know what the next word is, right? Once we get this economy set, we’re setting the stage for a huge rally. It’s taxes. It’s regulation. Once you start hearing about that forty percent long term capital gains rate, that’s going to be our next worry that we’re going to have to overcome.

PAYNE: Well, I’m hoping that’s like November, December. So that’s it could be a long time.

So, both of you guys, before I let you go, then, do you see new market highs? And we pulled back, will Scott, we see new highs in the market, and will it be led by big tech?

MARTIN: Yes, I believe we will, Charles, and we’re going to get some help, as Rob said, from energy and industrials and some financials, too, which have not been there. See, that’s the cool thing that I think that’s happening with the market so far, let’s say this year. And as we’ve been waiting, like you said, Charles, to kind of put more money to work here on these pullbacks, we’re starting to get other areas of the market. And yes, I know they’re smaller than tech. I get it. You can save the emails to me on that health care as well. But you’re starting to get some help from other areas of the market that have completely lagged in the last couple, say, years. And that will help the overall breadth of the market stay strong long term here this year.

PAYNE: Gentlemen, I got to leave it there. You are two of the best. I feel so much strong. I feel strong, like bull after talking to you guys. Had to start. Started out very much. Have a great weekend. Thanks, guys. As of the barbell approaches.


CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 3.5.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin talks about the transitory phase that is pushing around markets, inflation rates and great buying opportunities.

Program: Your World with Neil Cavuto
Date: 3/5/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 4:00PM

NEIL CAVUTO: All right, sometimes good news is just good news, it can sometimes rattle the markets. It means higher interest rates today when all the dust settles because of that strong employment report that saw three hundred seventy-nine thousand jobs added to the economy, the unemployment rate dipping down to six-point two percent. It was enough to propel stocks up about 600 points. Interest rates have been back it up a little bit. But again, all of that has been in response to this strong economy and investors are juggling. Is that good or bad, especially if it means now we don’t need as generous stimulus and markets like stimulus. It’s a mess. It’s confusing. But right now, Scott Martin, an uncanny read of these markets and their manic ways can help explain what’s going on at the end of the day, the end of the week. Scott, it sounds like they were OK with the strong economy. They could live with that. They in fact, they welcome that pretty much. Right.

SCOTT MARTIN: It also looks like at the end of the week, Neil, I picked the wrong week to quit drinking because we needed it this week. I mean, the markets were all over the place. That’s a Lloyd Bridges reference, by the way, from airplane, not mine, so everybody just calm down

CAVUTO: But very good, very good, before you were born.

MARTIN: And there’s there’s more behind that where they came from. But, Neil, you’re right. I mean, the markets have been very schizophrenic this week because they’re dealing with higher interest rates because of all the debt we’re issuing to pay for all these stimulus plans. They’re dealing with the fact that, yes, I mean, my goodness, the economy is going to start breathing on its own for once in the last couple of years. And so, we’re excited about that, at least since covid started. And we are going to get some inflation as a result. Boys and girls, because of the growth. And so, we have to come to grips with kind of this transitory phase that is pushing around markets, scaring investors for sure. I mean, some of my clients were pretty freaked out yesterday. And as

we talked yesterday, great buying opportunity on the FBN show Cavuto Coast to Coast because of the fact that things were overdone yesterday, Neil. Today they got back to where they should be, I believe.

CAVUTO: Yeah, you pointed that out, but a lot of people don’t get FBN, I say they should demand it, but they miss that

MARTIN: But Demand it.

CAVUTO: Real quickly, Scott. Yeah, there we go. This notion that interests rates go higher when the economy starts humming like it has been, I guess the worry is that those rates could go a lot higher. Where are you on this?

MARTIN: They could go a little higher. I think they’re going to top out here maybe on the ten-year note, around two percent, a really good friend of mine and his wife in the late seventies. I think you know who this is Neil, bought a house where the mortgage rate on it for, I don’t know, twenty percent, what was it, seventeen I think — we could ask him right now. Your rates on your home, on your home mortgages aren’t bad. You’re saving rates were terrible. It’s not a lot to worry about.

CAVUTO: Thirteen and a half percent, I was a Nostradamus long before…

MARTIN: You thought you were a wiz… and we’re complaining about three percent rates maybe.

CAVUTO: Exactly. But it’s what you’re used to, right? The trend is what rattles folks. But Scott, well explained. I appreciate that, these kids today, Scott Martin, on all of that. In the meantime.


CIO Scott Martin Interviewed on Fox Business News 2.24.21

Kingsview CIO Scott Martin discusses how the stimulus is baked into the market, and why Chairman Powell Chairman Powell will need to stay on the path he’s on for the time being.

Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Date: 2/24/2021
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 12:00PM

NEIL CAVUTO: You know, this is a big what if, but what if this whole thing fails? What if it goes kaput? What if they don’t get their differences reconciled and that one point nine trillion-dollar stimulus plan, the sort of the battle holy grail for this new administration, what if it just doesn’t happen? What would be the fallout? Scott Martin, Kingsview Asset Management. Susan Li, our superstar here at Fox Business. You know, I got to wonder, Susan, since the markets have factored in that it’s going to happen. It’s unlikely that it doesn’t, but it could. I mean, there were already a number of Republicans who’ve got at least a couple of Democrats with them worried about the price tag, worried about jamming in some of these other features. So then what?

SUSAN LI: Yeah, what a tangled web we weave, right. Thought you’d like that – that was for you Neil. So, yes, I think the markets are anticipating some sort of stimulus, whether it’s one point nine trillion or just a few billion. I think they pretty much said that you have to follow the money, and the money is telling you that there’s going to be money printing coming from either the White House and the government administration or from the Federal Reserve. As you’ve heard two days now with Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair in front of Congress. So I think people are anticipating something. And don’t forget, you still have another trillion-dollar package infrastructure that will be also discussed and pushed for apparently already by the White House. So I think Wall Street needs something.

CAVUTO: If they don’t get it, Scott, of course, Mitt Romney has a column today ducking and bemoaning about all the issues that others are ignoring, that a lot of this is backloaded. A lot of this spending seven hundred, eight hundred billion dollars worth is meant for twenty twenty-two. So this idea that we urgently need it like now, now, now isn’t out there. So, again, I’ll ask you what I asked Susan. If this doesn’t come to be because the trip-ups on these issues, how will the market respond?

SCOTT MARTIN: It’ll feel a lot more than just a simple insect bite, Neil, where you can put some cortisone on it and take care of it in a few days, because if you want any evidence of that, I’ll tell you. Look, yesterday, yesterday, the Nasdaq is down about three and a half percent in the morning. Fed Chairman Powell comes out and starts talking about, don’t worry about inflation. We’re here for the markets. Unemployment is still terrible, et cetera, et cetera. Meaning we’ll be there for you, Mr. or Mrs. Market, as well as his partner in crime, Super Dove, Janet Yellen, treasury secretary, who’s been out talking about more stimulus, more trillions, wherever we can find it, print it, sell it and send it out. So the reality is, Neil, this is kind of baked in the markets to a degree, I believe. But the more it’s talked about in, the more becomes a reality, more the market loves it. The scary thing I will tell you, though, is even if Chairman Powell wants to get out of this situation and say, hey, if data changes, maybe we’ll change our role or slow our roll, the markets freak out. So he’s got to stay in the path he is on for now at least.

CAVUTO: Do you think, Susan, that that’s another superhero analogy? If you think about it, he’s in that role, Chairman Powell, of being like the superhero is going to guard and protect the markets. And his stance over the last two days is where I’ve got your back, does he?

LI: Yeah, that’s exactly what you’ve heard. You’ve heard all the right things being that we’re going to stay low, lower for longer and continue buying more than one hundred billion dollars of bonds each and every month. And what I took away yesterday was at six percent GDP forecast that he made for twenty twenty-one, saying that the recovery in the back half of this year is going to be stronger than the first half. And that will be, by the way, pushed through by the Federal Reserve or the White House and the government printing more money. There will be trillions of dollars there that will liquidate the market. And as we say that, you have to follow the money and watch growth managers. And what the money is telling you is that it’s still going into stock markets that’s liquify. So I use the wrong verb there. But you know what I mean? Meaning that you have to follow where the money is going and it’s going into stock markets right now and risk assets.

CAVUTO: So real quickly, Scott, do you see that changing? I mean, give me sort of your lay of the land for at least the next few weeks here.

MARTIN: No. And we’re cautious as far as bonds go, Neil. So Susan’s right. Money goes into stocks as a result. It goes into Bitcoin, it goes into gold, which are things that appreciate when there’s so much Fed printing. And I love the numbers. Susan threw out six percent GDP growth. We’ve got an improving, improving economic picture, yet Fed funds rate at zero and the Fed’s buying one hundred billion a month. Hey, why not start the party and keep it going?

LI: And by the way, six percent, just my follow up on that, Neil, six percent is almost three times the average for the GDP growth that we’ve seen over the past ten years. So that’s a lot. That’s a big bet. That’s your V shape recovery right there.

CAVUTO: But do you think we’re coming from awful levels, right? So, yes, it is good. I’m not minimizing that. But again, you know, it’s coming from depressed levels, but we’ll see. Guys, thank you both very, very much.